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NCAA college basketball expert Seth Finkelstein's guide on how to fill out your tournament bracket for the 2021 college basketball tournament. See what advice Seth gives to help you prepare for March Madness.
What's up RotoBallers, March Madness is officially here, and RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown on the NCAA tournament. After you're done here, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice including tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region.
I'm here to give you a tournament strategy guide - important things to know before filling out your brackets. Now, everyone's a genius this time around. I love listening to people talk about how much they like a team like Liberty. Everyone thinks they know so much despite not watching more than a dozen games all year and only reading one article on ESPN.
I was in the middle of writing this column last year when the world came to a complete stop. Am I glad I can write it again, and finish it this time around. I also have columns breaking down each region (East, South, Midwest, and West).
2021 March Madness: What's Different This Year
Before we get into the gist of the article, several major notes on the upcoming NCAA tournament.
When people say without being asked, "I had..." Just stop right there. Most people don’t care who you picked or where you had so and so team going.
It's not called March Madness, rather the NCAA tournament. March Madness alludes to the entire month of March which includes the conference tournaments so don’t be that person to ask, 'Who do you have winning March madness?'
Teams must have seven consecutive days of negative tests before playing. If a team can not play, there are four substitute teams ready to take their place.
The entire tournament will be held in the Indianapolis region.
And lastly, the tournament begins on Friday this year, not on the usual Thursday. The play-in games are Thursday, not Tuesday and Wednesday. It's absolutely awful the NCAA is doing away with the typical first-round games on Thursday.
A Checklist Before Filling Out Your Bracket
- Vegas knows more than us. Two years ago, No. 12 Oregon was a one-point favorite against No. 5 Wisconsin. How could a lower-seeded team be a favorite against a higher one? Because Vegas is smarter than any of us. Needless to say, Oregon not only won that game, but they also went to the Sweet 16. This year, some lines that stand out to me are No. 6 San Diego State -2 against N0 11. Syracuse. That would be a minor upset if Cuse wins. No. 10 Rutgers is a two-point favorite against No. 7 Clemson. People think Rutgers winning is an upset, but it would not be.
- Don't overvalue seeds. The committee makes a ton of mistakes when handing out seeds (mentioned above). Cover the seeds and go matchup-by-matchup and choose who you think the better team is. For example, you may have No. 10 Rutgers in the Sweet 16 which seems far-fetched but they're a favorite in the First Round.
- Teams are entirely different come March than they were in December. Weigh recent games more than a game in December.
- Be contrarian. Don't pick the popular teams that everybody else will. If you pick a team that not many other people have to either win the championship or make the Final Four and they do it, then you'll be one of the only people to get those points giving yourself a major advantage.
- Check the rules to your pool. Are there upset points? Are first-round games weighted as evenly as Elite Eight games? Pools have their own rules. Make sure you know them.
- And finally, the most important rule, DO NOT TINKER! The more you second-guess yourself, the more you'll regret it. I will fill my bracket out Wednesday evening only once and that will be it. No going back and looking until the brackets lock Thursday at noon.
Does Conference Tournament Success Equal NCAA Tournament Success?
The answer is no. Two years ago, Virginia lost in ACC semifinals and then won the NCAA Tournament.
Fivethirtyeight.com posed this question several years ago. They looked at data dating back to 1985. It's complicated and if you really care to find out the process and how they came to their conclusion, you can read it here. Here is the main point of their findings,
"This analysis does serve as a warning against putting too much emphasis on the conference tournament relative to a team’s entire body of work, especially when it comes to picking unexpectedly hot conference tournament teams to go further than you’d otherwise predict for teams with their résumés."
Conference tournaments are just another cash grab for the schools. A much-needed one this year too after nearly everything was canceled last year.
What's the magic to winning it all?
- A veteran team. Look at the last four champions; Virginia, Villanova, North Carolina, and Villanova again. Those teams had upper-classmen who had been in plenty of big games before and knew how to get it done in the big moments.
- An NBA point guard.
- A rim protector.
- A team with a solid offense, but more importantly one that can get stops when it needs to.
- Ken Pomeroy is a college basketball wizard. He has advanced stats for every teams on his website, kenpom.com. Since 2002, each team to win the title except for one, was ranked top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Those teams are Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois, and Houston.
Pick To Win It All
This is Gonzaga's year. They have a big man in Drew Timme. They have a lottery pick in Jalen Sluggs who could take over games like he did in the West Coast Championship against BYU. Historically, they haven't had that go-to player to get them shots when they needed it most.
People will say they aren't battle-tested because of their weak conference schedule but they got the wake-up they needed against BYU. They play a fun style of basketball, running up and down. Their region is the easiest. They wouldn't really be tested until the Elite Eight.
One Final Thing...
Before the tournament starts, I hear countless people saying, "I have the perfect bracket." Stop. You don't. If you're one of those delusional people who thinks they filled out a perfect bracket, and goes around telling people that the day before the tournament, you should know this: you have a higher chance of being attacked by a shark, one in 11.5 million, than filling out a perfect bracket, one in 9.2 quintillion.
Enjoy the games, and good luck to all!
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