NBA First Basket Predictions Today: Expert Prop Bets and Picks for Thursday, 3/12

March 12, 2026

Get tonight's NBA first basket predictions from expert analyst Thunder Dan Palyo. He breaks down the latest jump ball stats and player trends to find the best first scorer bets for Thursday, 3/12.

You can call it beginner's luck, but I'll maintain that hitting two of my first four first basket wagers had more to do with the right process than just getting lucky! Since we had such success on these wagers on Tuesday (thanks to Bam Adebayo and Jalen Green), I decided to run it back for tonight's NBA slate.

We have nine games on the docket tonight, and a pretty sizeable tip-off advantage for at least five teams based on my calculations. I think I'll stick with four recommended bets, however, and I'll remind you that these are high variance bets that should be a fun addition to your betting card for the night, not wagers that make up the majority of your action!

If you're looking for bets that are a quick sweat and potential early cash with almost no risk of a player getting hurt, ejected, or just underperforming in general, then first basket bets are an exciting way to get some action on NBA games. In this article, I'll provide my favorite first basket bets for the games on Thursday, March 12.

Today’s Biggest Tip-Off Advantages

Determining who to wager on to score the first basket in an NBA game is a multi-step process. Firing off bets on the best offensive players from each team isn't likely the best strategy, as the odds for these bets rarely reflect the actual probability of any given player scoring the first basket.

The first statistic that we can use is the opening tip win rate. The team with the first possession has the best chance of converting the first basket, so targeting the players on the team that is most likely to win the tip makes for a strong strategy.

These percentages are win rates for the entire team, not just the specific player who will be doing the jump ball tonight. Victor Wembanyama's win rate of 92% is even better than the Spurs' team mark, which is only lower because he's missed a few games this year and came off the bench for a short stretch.

We don't know if Ivica Zubac will make his Pacers debut yet, or if he will start, but his personal win rate of 41.5% doesn't change the fact that the Suns have the advantage there.

For Orlando, Wendell Carter Jr. is 2-0 head-to-head against Washington's Alexandre Sarr. And Chicago's win rate may even be a bit inflated at 35% because they're likely to start an undersized Jalen Smith at center, who owns a personal 28.6% win rate.

Best NBA First Basket Props

Most sportsbooks count the first field goal made as the first basket, but FanDuel counts free throws, too. Additionally, DraftKings labels its bets as "first points scorer," but it includes only made field goals, so don't be confused! For that reason, I'll be focused on other sportsbooks besides FanDuel since the made free throw angle provides another wrinkle to the whole process.

Victor Wembanyama First Points Scorer (+412 DraftKings), (+432 NOVIG)

I have to get some action on the Spurs tonight, as I think they have a great chance of scoring first in their matchup with the Nuggets. Wembanyama has dominated the tip this year, with Nikola Jokic being fairly average (does he even jump?).

I was on De'Aaron Fox in their last game, and he did miss a shot at point-blank range, only for Wembanyama to clean it up and record the first basket. The Frenchman now leads the team in first shot rate and trails only Devin Vassell in first basket rate on the team.

But the recent trends really favor Wembanyama here. Over their last 10 games, the Spurs have won the tip six times, and Wembanyama has attempted the team's first field goal in four of those. It seems pretty clear that they want to get him involved on that first possession when at all possible, and his ability to score from anywhere on the floor certainly helps his chances of converting that first opportunity.

Jalen Green First Field Goal Scorer (+600 BetMGM), (+541 NOVIG)

We hit on Green on Tuesday night as the Suns won the tip and Green immediately hit his first shot of the game. I have to go back to him again tonight, since he continues to be priced at higher odds than Devin Booker, even though he's been taking the first shot for Phoenix at twice the rate of Booker (when both are healthy).

JALEN GREEN WITH THE MOST DISRESPECTFUL ANKLE BREAKER EVER!!!

HE POINTED AT HIM ON THE FLOOR!!!! pic.twitter.com/LNz9xfQIo2

— LEEZUS (@AndrewLeezus) March 11, 2026

Green has never met a shot he didn't like. He fired up a team-high 20 field goal attempts on Tuesday, scoring 24+ points for the third straight game. Indiana's defense shouldn't offer much resistance either.

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Wendell Carter Jr. First Points Scorer (+640 DraftKings), (+521 NOVIG)

Let's keep attacking this soft Washington defense, shall we? On Tuesday night, the Wizards not only allowed Adebayo to score the first bucket, but they then proceeded to allow another 83 points to the Heat big man as he finished with the second-most points ever in an NBA game, passing Kobe Bryant.

With Carter's solid tip win-rate and head-to-head success against Sarr, I feel good about Orlando having the first possession. Despite being the third, or even fourth option in the Orlando offense, Carter leads the team with a 20% first shot rate and a 13.3% first basket rate.

Furthermore, he's been aggressive lately, taking the first shot in four of the last six games in which Orlando won the tip.

Luka Doncic Field Goal Scorer (+500 BetMGM), (+502 NOVIG)

Doncic and the Lakers have to be salivating for this matchup with the "Bad News Bulls" and their pathetic defense. The last time Doncic faced this team back in January, he dropped 42 points and 12 assists as the Lakers scored 128 points - and that was before Chicago made a series of trades at the deadline that weakened its team.

It might sound boring, but once again, I'm locked in here on the Lakers' leader in first shot rate and first basket rate. Doncic's 29% first shot rate is well ahead of Austin Reaves (18%) and LeBron James (11.6%), and the recent trends really back this play as well.

Over their last ten games, the Lakers have won the tip six times with Doncic taking the first shot in FIVE of those six games! And like Wembanyama, Doncic is a three-level scorer who is a mismatch for any defender. He's just as likely to drill a three-pointer coming off a ball screen as he is to take his man all the way to the hoop for a layup.

NBA Betting Tools and Resources

Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.

• NBA Betting Props Finder Tool
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• NBA Sleeper Props Finder Tool
• NBA Betting Picks Tool
• DFS Matchup Ratings and Projections
• NBA Injury Report

Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!

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