NBA Bets: Player Props Picks For Novig Prediction Markets (Friday, 10/23/26)

October 23, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Friday, 10/23/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.

We head into tonight's 11-game slate with every NBA team now having at least one game under their belt. It would be easy to chase some of the biggest performances from players in their first game, but probably not wise. In a perfect world, I'd love to wait for a solid 5-game sample size before really making any predictions on player props, but who wants to wait that long? I want some action on these games tonight, so I spent some time digging into the spots that I feel are the safest to target in the player prop market on Novig.

If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for the first big Friday night NBA slate of the season!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

NBA Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET. All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Moussa Diabate OVER 18.5 Points + Rebounds (52%)

The Charlotte center had an impressive opening night with 17 points and eight rebounds as the Hornets picked up a win over the Nets.

His energy on defense and ability to pound the boards is something that the Hornets need badly, and his 33 minutes in the opener is a great sign that he's really put some distance between himself and backup center Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Last season when he got 32 minutes or more, he went for 19 or more points and rebounds 75% of the time (12 times in 16 games). Opposing centers have done this in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games, too, including 22 points and 7 boards from another undersized center, Wendell Carter Jr., in the Hawks' opener.

Paolo Banchero OVER 5.5 Assists (47%)

Welcome to the point-Paolo era in Orlando. The sometimes mercurial, but ultra-talented point forward of the Magic dropped 10 dimes in Orlando's loss to Atlanta on opening night.

He looked like the best version of himself, something we haven't really seen from him in a while. It was no secret that he wanted Jahmal Mosley out as coach last season, and he got his wish as he was replaced by Sean Sweeney in the offseason.

Paolo Banchero highlights vs. ATL:

35 PTS
7 REB
10 AST
10-12 FG
3-4 3P https://t.co/Dq3IjoI5hh

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) October 22, 2026

Sweeney and Paolo have reportedly hit it off so far, and Sweeney has handed Paolo the keys to the offense. Banchero had 14 potential assists in the opener, and only one player who had that many potential assists (passes that led directly to shots for teammates) had fewer than six assists in their first game.

It also helps that Banchero played 41 minutes on Wednesday. With a lot of players having their minutes held in check for the first few weeks, it appears that Sweeney has no problem keeping his best player on the court for the vast majority of the game. This game has a 1.5-point spread and should be one of the most competitive of the evening, so I expect Banchero to pile up counting stats and play a ton of minutes again.

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 9.5 Assists (50%)

It was great to see Haliburton in top form in his first regular season game in over a year. The Pacers' floor general had 23 points and 12 assists in their opening night win against the Pelicans. Those 12 assists came on a league-leading 20 potential assists, so he could have easily had a few more, too.

Haliburton is one of the best passers in the game, and Indiana added an excellent pick-and-roll partner for him last year when they acquired Ivica Zubac from the Clippers. The Pacers have shooters and finishers surrounding Haliburton, and I won't be surprised if he averaged 10+ dimes per game this season.

The Mavs are a good target tonight, too. They allowed Fred VanVleet to stack up 11 dimes in their opening night loss to Houston.

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NBA Value Props

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET. All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Ausar Thompson OVER 6.5 Rebounds (52%)

Another player who fantasy managers had to be thrilled to see get some solid run in their first game was Ausar Thompson. He played only around 25 minutes per game last season, but is a monster on the boards and one of the best defenders in the league. He played 33 minutes in Detroit's win over Boston on opening day and rolled up 11 boards in the process.

Last year, when he played 30+ minutes, he averaged right around 7 boards per game. The early signs here are that he's earned a bigger role this year, and his rebounds are the most projectable of his stats, even though he's also a good secondary shot-creator on offense, too.

Grayson Allen OVER 2.5 Three Pointers Made (54%)

I expect Allen to have another big role tonight for Charlotte, even coming off the bench. He played 29 minutes in the opener and finished with 21 points, while drilling five of his eight three-point attempts.

Allen is one of the best shooters from distance in the league, and Charlotte really needs his offense to start the year as both Kon Knueppel and Coby White are out. Expect him to be firing away again tonight, and remember that he averaged 3.0 made threes per game last year across 28 minutes per contest.

Walker Kessler OVER 14.5 Points (56%)

This bet feels like a slam dunk! Speaking of dunks, Kessler had ten (yes, TEN) of them in his Laker debut, finishing a perfect 12-for-12 from the field for 26 points in just 29 minutes.

WALKER KESSLER WENT 12-12 IN HIS LAKERS DEBUT 🤯

He had 10 DUNKS... the most by a Laker since Shaq in 2003! https://t.co/i7KWBrC9f6

— NBA (@NBA) October 22, 2026

Kessler was the beneficiary of good looks from both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves all night against the Warriors, and I expect him to pad his stats with easy lob dunks all season. He's also a tenacious rebounder who can snag offensive boards and rack up points on putbacks.

The Clippers allowed Domantas Sabonis to shoot 5-for-5 on opening night, and they'll struggle to match up with Kessler's size and physicality in this one. This number is already juiced a bit, but I am comfortable betting it up higher, and I think it's an excellent ladder candidate up to about 20 points!

Good luck if you're tailing, and thanks for reading!

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