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Wednesday night features an exciting Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway in Virginia. Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola, Joey Logano, Clint Bowyer, and Martin Truex Jr. will make up the top-5 to start the race. MKF has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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Pick 1: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Kyle Busch UNDER 21.5 Fantasy Points and Martin Truex Jr. UNDER 18.5 Fantasy Points
We are back to a short-track this week. In fact, Martinsville is the shortest track in the NASCAR circuit at just over half a mile. With that being said, considering laps led will be more important than ever when making prop picks. As mentioned above, MKF's format offers 0.1 points per lap led.
There were two races at Martinsville in 2019 and both were 500 laps. In those two races, Brad Keselowski started in third and won with 446 laps led and Martin Truex Jr. won the other race after starting in third and leading for 464 laps. Although the short track package is different this season and that much dominance is unlikely, it is clear that if a driver can get out front, they are able to stay there for quite a while.
There is no doubt that Busch and Truex Jr. are two of the most elite drivers in NASCAR but the dominance we've seen the last two races at Martinsville gives us a great opportunity to bet against these drivers. Predicting that one of these two drivers will get to the front of the pack and rack up those laps led points is just too difficult.
So, rather than taking the over on these two prop picks, we will favor the under. At 21.5 and 18.5 fantasy points, there is still plenty of room for both of these drivers to finish within the top-10 of the race and still be under their respective fantasy points. As long as one of these two drivers isn't the one to dominate the race, the unders should hit more often than not.
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (5/5)
Recommended Prop Pick: Kyle Busch UNDER 22.5 Fantasy Points, Chase Elliott UNDER 18.5 Fantasy Points, Martin Truex Jr. OVER 17.5 Fantasy Points, Joey Logano OVER 17.5 Fantasy Points, Denny Hamlin UNDER 17.5 Fantasy Points
As promised last week, here is an example of a high-risk, high-reward option that MNF offers. It is a five for five More or Less Fantasy Point challenge that pays out at 12x your buy-in. Of course, the odds of this prop hitting are low and you should always be reserved with your bankroll with this type of contest!
Kyle Busch is mentioned above. He is actually given an extra fantasy point in this prop so the under looks even better here.
Chase Elliott will be starting in 11th and the chances of him gaining the ground needed to lead the 100+ laps he'll need to make the over on 18.5 fantasy points reasonable just doesn't seem likely. As long as he finishes below fifth-place, he'll be under 18.5 fantasy points nearly every time.
This prop offers Martin Truex Jr. at 17.5 fantasy points, rather than the 18.5 fantasy points in the previous prop. Due to that and the fact that he had an extremely strong race at Martinsville last year, the over seems like the way to go here. Although this takes away almost all the possibility of winning both props, it does guarantees you get one part of one prop correct. If he happens to get exactly 18 points, you'll get both correct.
If Truex has another great race, this prop is alive and you are 1/5th of your way to 12x your buy-in. If he struggles, you are half the way to 3x your buy-in for the previous prop. I would recommend betting 1/5th of your buy-in for the previous prop on this prop. (Example: $10 to win $30 on the prop above, $2 to win $24 on this prop)
Starting in third-place gives Logano an excellent chance to get to the front and rack up some laps led points. As long as Logano can lead 75+ laps and finish within the top-10, he'll break through his 17.5 fantasy point threshold.
Similar to Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin is starting too far back to seriously consider him a driver that can lead 100+ laps and finish within the top-10.
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
More NASCAR DFS
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups, including our weekly YouTube video:
