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Hello once again everyone! We head to the Phoenix Raceway for the Ruoff Mortgage 500 this week and the fourth 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Joey Logano Over 41.5 Points. This week we again start with what should work out barring a crash. Let's cross our fingers there but Logano is one of those drivers that likes to lead laps at Phoenix. He has an average finish of 6.00 which is great, a win, and five top-five results. Furthermore, he has led 22.44% of the laps over the previous three seasons. Next to Kevin Harvick and maybe Martin Truex Jr., he tends to put up these high laps led totals on the short track. This is not as high-wear of a track and the progressive banking may have taught Logano a valuable lesson on Saturday when he brushed the wall and kissed it a little. Expect him to learn from his mistake and take the over.
Austin Cindric over 33.5 Points. The risk with playing the rookie is not as bad here. He has hit three times already and the cash was too easy. Even with a slightly higher number, this is worth a try. He only has to finish around the top-ten and maybe set a few fast laps and lead (he qualified 8th). If Austin Cindric somehow ends up in the front for a bit, that's just a bonus. Cindric likely with a bit of decent luck finishes in the top-10 last week. He practiced well in runs of varying lengths in January and this weekend at Phoenix. Take that over.
Denny Hamlin Over 52.5 Points. The dicey nature of this one is fun. Hamlin could lead some laps here but can this Joe Gibbs Racing come close to winning Sunday? If that answer is yes then Hamlin should top 52.5 points. Hamlin does not have to win though that would be a bonus. A top-five finish is likely (qualified second) and that would be just enough with a few laps led. Previous loop dates makes this even more plausible. Take the over here.
Ryan Blaney Under 57.5 Points. The #12 driver took the pole this week and looked quite good in practice too. This is where it gets tough. Blaney has shown the ability to perform great from the front. However, at Phoenix, he has some nice top-ten finishes but nothing that screams must win. Can he get enough points from laps led and fastest laps? That is a big jump especially if he ends up near the tail end of the top ten (average finish 10.5). The laps led at 8.69% since 2019 does make this more difficult. That being said, take the under.
Brad Keselowski Under 34.5 Points. This could be tougher than it looks. The part-team owner has to contend from the middle of the field. That is not impossible. It happens in NASCAR. However, he has to finish around the top-ten and lead a few laps too. That is asking a lot. There are 312 laps but again could there be a lot of lead changes? Absolutely. Add in some cautions and the thought process is that this Ford may not see the end of the race on Sunday. Take the under again.
Some other drivers to look at:
Christopher Bell (Over 33.5 points) -- Bell has been fast in testing with the Next-Gen car at Phoenix. Everyone knows it. He qualified fourth for Sunday's race and might have snagged the pole if he did not let up in turns 3 and 4. Either way, Bell is starting to get a hang of this car. He likes it. Take the over.
Chase Elliott (over 50.5 points) -- This has to work sometime, right? Elliott could end up in the top-five and lead some laps with some fastest laps battle as well. Let's rack up that over especially with that 18.12% laps led percentage!
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