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Hello once again everyone! We head to Phoenix Raceway for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship this week and the final 2021 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Over 35 Points. This week we again swing out during the final phase which determines the Champion. The younger Busch could very well win this week. Phoenix has caused his laps-led percentage to swell just above 22%. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has a lot of ability to take the OVER here and a likely top-five finish or better.
Martin Truex Jr. Over 36.5 Points. The risk is elevated but this is the type of track that Martin Truex Jr. can win on and he has in the not-so-distant past. His No. 18 car seems to get faster and faster at Phoenix as the race goes along. The idea is to take the over, expect some slow early, then profit at the end as Truex Jr. comes up the field. The chances he finishes 4th or better keep increasing. Take the over.
Denny Hamlin Over 37.5 Points. The idea is good enough again here. Hamlin is one of those five or six drivers that has led 10% or more of all laps on this one-mile track. Phoenix is only a little off in terms of the props. Hamlin has strung together a series of solid finishes but will it be enough for this prop? That is the big question as far as the No. 11 when he races 0n Sunday afternoon. Our guess is yes, take the over. Hamlin should lead just enough laps to hit the over.
Kyle Larson Under 38.5 Points. The risk did not bite us last week so we go to the well once again. The problem is that Larson will do anything to win a race. That becomes a double-edged sword. Sometimes it works for the props and other times it does not. Larson has to finish on the podium to prove us wrong. The chances he does are moderate at least but the chances he does not are as well. Larson does not test well on this track over longer runs. That may spell doom late in this race. Take the UNDER this Sunday afternoon.
Kurt Busch Over 29 Points. This is crazy. Busch is 13th in driver average finish and that is you guessed it 14th among all current drivers. It should be intriguing to see if the No. 1 can sneak past the over. There is this feeling that he can and hence, we are rolling with the OVER on Sunday evening.
Some other drivers to look at:
Christopher Bell (over 30 points) -- Bell has finished in the top ten during four of his last five races. Make that five or six and take the over on Sunday.
Matt DiBenedetto (over 26.5 points) -- Sorry everyone again. DiBenedetto could wind up close to the top ten. It is easiest just to take the over.
Chase Elliott (under 37.5 points) -- No one would be shocked if Elliott ends up crashing out or missing the top five. It boosts the prop surely.
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Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
Five-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team. He has been nominated once again in 2024 for this award.
