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Sunday night features an exciting Cup Series race at Homestead- Miami Speedway. Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott will make up the top-5 to start the race. MKF has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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Pick 1: Rapid Fire Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Kevin Harvick (+0.5) and Kyle Busch (+1.5)
Simply put, Harvick has been phenomenal at Homestead- Miami Speedway. Since 2014, he has finished within the top-5 each race, has one win, and one runner-up. According to the RotoBaller Premium NASCAR Research Station, Harvick is projected to lead the most laps and has over an 80% chance of finishing within the top-10. On top of all that, Harvick is a 0.5 fantasy point underdog to Truex Jr.
Kyle Busch has been far too good at Miami Speedway to consider betting against him as a 0.5 fantasy point underdog. Since 2015, Busch has two wins, a runner-up, and two other top-10 finishes. I do not expect Busch to lead all that many laps but all he really has to do is finish higher than Elliott to win this part of the prop. Elliott is starting one position behind Busch and has no real success at the Dixie Vodka 400.
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Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (6/6)
Recommended Prop Pick: Kevin Harvick OVER 19.5 Fantasy Points, Martin Truex Jr. UNDER 19.5 Fantasy Points, Kyle Busch UNDER 18.5 Fantasy Points, Joey Logano OVER 17.5 Fantasy Points, Chase Elliott UNDER 17.5 Fantasy Points, and Brad Keselowski UNDER 16.5 Fantasy Points
We hit a nice 5/5 More or Less contest on Wednesday night for 12x our buy-in so we'll one-up it for Sunday night with a 6/6 More or Less Fantasy Point contest for 24x your buy-in.
The first two props are explained above. Harvick has an excellent chance to lead numerous laps and finish the race within the top-10. More often than not, he'll finish the race with over 19.5 fantasy points. As long as Truex Jr leads less than 35 laps or so, he'll likely stay below that 19.5 fantasy point threshold.
The Kyle Busch prop is certainly the hardest one to pick. The RotoBaller Premium NASCAR Research Station only has Busch's projected laps led at 15. Due to that, and the fact that there are numerous other drivers that are more than capable of dominating this race, taking the under on 18.5 fantasy points seems to be the sharper side.
Since 2015, Logano has one win, and three other top-5 finishes at Homestead- Miami Speedway. Logano has over a 70% chance of finishing within the top-10 and starting in second-place gives him an excellent chance of getting to the front of the pack to rack up some laps led points. A top-10 finish and 40+ laps led will give Logano an excellent chance to beat 16.5 fantasy points.
With this prop, we will have to root for Harvick, Logano, and Hamlin to lead for the majority of the race and collect the majority of the laps led points. As a result, we would expect other drivers, like Elliott and Keselowski, to have much less of an opportunity to collect laps led points. As long as they each lead less than 25 laps or so, they should finish the race with less than 17.5 and 16.5 fantasy points, respectively.
As always, be smart about this high-risk bet. I would recommend betting 1/10th of your bet from the prop pick above.
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