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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineups advice for the Saints and Dolphins Monday game in Week 16 (2021). Dan Fornek analyzes the MNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.
Football fans were treated to two terrible games on Monday last week. The first game between the Raiders and Browns was originally scheduled for Saturday but had to be moved due to COVID. The Raiders were able to secure a last-second victory against a depleted Browns offense missing Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper. The second game between the Bears and Vikings was a slow-paced game where Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Dalvin Cook failed to generate much fantasy relevance. Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney finished with solid stat lines. Ultimately, all four teams last week failed to combine for 60 points.
Unfortunately, this week’s Monday night matchup offers little for fantasy managers. The Saints have struggled on offense this season and have now lost starting quarterback Taysom Hill, backup quarterback Trevor Siemian, and starting tight end Adam Trautman to the COVID list. The Saints gutted out a 9-0 victory against the Buccaneers in Week 15 but had just 154 passing yards and 61 rushing yards in the week. The Dolphins don’t have a defense as strong as Tampa Bay, but the Saints' offensive weapons aren’t very good either.
On the other side, Miami is firmly in the AFC playoff picture thanks to a six-game winning streak, but their offense has been very inconsistent during that stretch. Second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has had a solid but unspectacular season in Miami. In 10 games, Tua is completing 69% of his passes but has just 2,141 yards and 14 touchdowns with eight interceptions. Miami’s backfield of late-round draft picks (Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed) and free-agent acquisitions (Malcolm Brown and Duke Johnson Jr.) have struggled to get any traction this season. Five players on the Dolphins have at least 20 carries (led by Gaskins 164) and no player has more than 600 rushing yards. Jaylen Waddle (86 targets) and Mike Gesicki (64 targets) have paced Miami’s passing game thanks to their availability this season. Needless to say, if you like high-scoring football games, this week’s Monday night matchup probably isn’t for you.
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Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
- Game time: Monday, December 27, 8:15 p.m.
- Game line: Miami -1.5
- Game total: 37.5
Must Starts
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
It was a rough week for Alvin Kamara last week against the Tampa Bay defense. Kamara had 11 carries for 18 yards and just two receptions on six targets for 13 yards. In the three games before that, Kamara was averaging 19.7 carries and 77 yards with 5.3 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 31.3 receiving yards. He also scored three touchdowns during that stretch. An issue for the Saints run game has been injuries across the offensive line, so hopefully that can be fixed this week. Miami has been good against running backs this season (15.5), but with Taysom Hill out, the Saints' offense will likely flow through their best weapon.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Jaylen Waddle missed Week 15 because of COVID, but he was on fire in the three weeks before that. From Weeks 11 to 13, Waddle averaged 10 targets, 8.7 receptions, and 97.3 receiving yards per game. Waddle hasn’t been the deep threat many projected when he was selected with a top-10 pick in the 2021 draft, but he is getting a high target share out of the slot for Miami. The Saints have Marshon Lattimore on the perimeter, which should mean a good day against weaker coverage for the rookie out of Alabama. The Saints are allowing 23.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season despite having a lockdown cornerback on their roster.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
The Saints are one of the better defenses in the NFL against tight ends this season, but Mike Gesicki doesn’t function like a typical tight end for Miami. The fourth-year tight end functions out wide for Miami and gets a high target share thanks to his receiving ability. Gesicki has 11 games this season with at least six targets and 12 games with three receptions. Additionally, Gesicki has at least 40 receiving yards in 11 games this season. That’s good enough to be a consistent presence as a top-10 every week regardless of matchup.
Consider Sitting
Ian Book (QB, NO)
With Jameis Winston on the injured list and the addition of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian to the COVID list, Ian Book is slated to make the first start of his rookie season on Monday night against the Dolphins. The rookie from Notre Dame was seen as a developmental prospect taken by the Saints in the fourth round of the NFL draft. Miami has an extremely strong secondary and the Saints don’t have many perimeter weapons, making Book a very risky start in his first game. Book does have good mobility, but his rushing upside isn’t worth it with a majority of quarterbacks available in fantasy leagues.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
2021 has been an up and down season for Tua Tagovailoa. The last two weeks have perfectly captured the roller coaster that has been Tua’s second season in the NFL. In Week 14 against the Giants, Tua completed 73% of his passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. One week later in a fantastic matchup against the Jets, Tua completed just 59% of his passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. It is hard to trust Miami’s signal-caller in a game against the Saints on Monday night. New Orleans has a stellar pass rush at their disposal and a good enough secondary to generate turnovers.
Mark Ingram (RB, NO)
Mark Ingram had a hot start when he was acquired by the Saints with Alvin Kamara out, but has struggled to have a significant impact since he returned from injury. In the last two weeks, Ingram has played at least 43% of the Saints' offensive snaps. However, he’s turned that into 19 carries for 38 yards and three receptions for six yards. The Dolphins have one of the best-run defenses in the NFL which means Ingram’s straight-ahead running style could struggle to have an impact.
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Myles Gaskin has had a very odd season for fantasy gamers. On one hand, Gaskin has double-digit carries in every game since Week 6. On the other hand, he has struggled to maintain a firm grasp on the starting running back position in Miami this season. Gaskin has at least 40 rushing yards the last four weeks (and had a two-touchdown performance against Carolina in Week 12), but failed to get the high-value touches over Duke Johnson Jr. in Week 15. The Dolphins purchased Duke Johnson’s contract off the practice squad after his huge game last week, making this backfield even more of a mess.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
DeVante Parker has had a solid season for the Dolphins when healthy. Parker has played in seven games this season and has at least five targets, four receptions, and 40 receiving yards in all of them. He’s also been able to find the end zone twice this year. Parker operates as a big-bodied receiver on the perimeter, meaning he will see Marshon Lattimore in coverage the most this week. Between that and the return of Jaylen Waddle to the passing game, it is safe to fade Parker for better options on your bench or the waiver wire this week.
Upside Plays
Duke Johnson Jr. (RB, MIA)
Duke Johnson Jr. emerged from the practice squad last week thanks to a COVID outbreak on Miami’s offense and had the best game of his career. Johnson had 22 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns while adding one reception for 20 yards. Duke Johnson Jr. looked very explosive and made the big plays Miami’s run game has been lacking this season, earning him a 58% snap share. It is hard to trust any of Miami’s running backs at this point, but if the team chooses to go with the hot hand approach, then Johnson has an interesting upside in a very difficult matchup.
Marquez Callaway (WR, NO)
Marquez Callaway was a popular draft pick this offseason when Michael Thomas was placed on an injured reserve with an ankle injury. However, he has failed to capitalize on that upside. Callaway is coming off his best game this season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Callaway caught six of nine targets for 112 yards. Callaway has shown stretches of being a red zone threat (he had a three-game stretch with a touchdown) and will likely be the safety valve for Ian Book in his first start. Miami’s defense has been playing better recently but is still giving up 23.8 fantasy points per game this year. Callaway is a boom-or-bust FLEX play in Week 16.
Tre'Quan Smith (WR, NO)
Tre’Quan Smith is the Saints’ deep threat this season but has struggled to put together big games with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill under center. In the last four games, Smith has had 11 receptions on 18 targets for 96 yards. Smith is getting a solid target share in the Saints offense, but it just isn’t translating into big plays. Smith can always shake loose and find the end zone but remains a big-play threat that won’t pay off, especially with a rookie making his first start under center.
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