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Twelve teams made the Major League Baseball playoffs in 2023. If history repeats itself, all twelve teams will not return to the postseason in 2024.
The Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros were the top two seeds in the American League, while the Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, and Toronto Blue Jays also made the postseason. In the National League, the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, and Arizona Diamondbacks represented that side.
However, a handful of those teams will not make the 2024 postseason. So, which teams will return to the postseason after making it last year? Let's dive in and find out.
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The Locks - Dodgers, Braves, Astros
The Dodgers, Braves, and Astros are the only locks to make the 2024 playoffs. These three teams also have the best odds to make the postseason this upcoming season, according to FanGraphs. The Astros come in with an 87.5% chance, while the Braves have a 98.6% chance, and the Dodgers have a 95.2% chance.
"It's sort of like The Beatles."
It's Ohtani-Mania in #SpringTraining, eight days a week.
Dave Roberts on our Spring Training Tour, kicking off this week:@Dodgers | #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/UHYtgMWPtv
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) February 25, 2024
The Astros haven't missed the playoffs since 2016 and have won at least 90 games in six straight full seasons. Houston also didn't lose any key pieces this offseason and added one of the best closers in Josh Hader. They'll make it back to the playoffs for the eighth straight year.
As for the Dodgers and Braves, these two teams have the best all-around talent. Los Angeles was aggressive this offseason and acquired Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow. Add that to a roster that already had Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, and the Dodgers are a scary team. Atlanta might have been quiet in free agency this winter, but they already had a strong roster featuring Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley.
The Almost Locks - Orioles, Phillies, Rangers
While the Orioles, Phillies, and Rangers aren't full-locks to make the playoffs again, they are as close as it gets. Baltimore is coming off a 101-win season where they exceeded expectations. Then, they went out and signed former Cy Young pitcher Corbin Burnes. The Orioles play in a tough AL East, but that shouldn't affect them in 2024.
Corbin Burnes...of the Baltimore Orioles. pic.twitter.com/YWwQ3XLdFr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 24, 2024
The Phillies and Rangers are also coming off solid campaigns. Philadelphia has made the postseason in consecutive seasons and just made the World Series two years ago. Texas just made it to the World Series last year, where they won their first title ever.
Both rosters didn't lose any valuable pieces from the 2023 season, so they should return to the playoffs in 2024.
The "Will Need Some Luck But Should Be Back" - Twins, Diamondbacks
The Twins and Diamondbacks will need some luck to make it back to the postseason, but they should make it in 2024. Minnesota has the better chance since they play in a weak AL Central division. They currently have a 52.6% chance to win that division, and it's honestly theirs to lose.
The Diamondbacks have smaller odds than that to make the 2024 playoffs, sitting at 50.8%. However, a year after they made the World Series, they should be able to return. With an up-and-coming star in Corbin Carroll to go with Zac Gallen, Christian Walker, and Ketel Marte, the team has enough firepower to make another run.
Casual 3-hit* day for @ketel_marte4. 🤙
*ᵗʷᵒ ᵇᵃˢᵉ ʰᶦᵗˢ ᵃⁿᵈ ᵒⁿᵉ ʰᶦᵗ⁻ᵇʸ⁻ᵖᶦᵗᶜʰ pic.twitter.com/f88YITiVb2
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) February 25, 2024
Although Arizona plays in a division with the Dodgers, there's a strong chance they will be back in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks likely won't win the NL West, but a wild-card berth is there for the taking.
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