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It's Easter Sunday RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The last MLB season was good to me, so I'm looking to build off that momentum and hit the ground running early in 2024. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some really interesting matchups today. The pitching options range from largely SP2 and SP3 starters with mediocre matchups to back-of-the-rotation punt arms, which will certainly lead to some tough lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but with a 10-game slate and so much uncertainty on the mound, there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative with your picks today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/31/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals ($9K DK, $9.8K FD)
Objectively, Kevin Gausman is the best pitcher on this slate. However, with only one three-inning spring training start under his belt, I don't think he's ready to take on anything resembling a full workload. Instead, I'm pivoting to Bailey Ober as the preferred SP1 of the day.
Ober firmly established himself as a core part of the Twins rotation last season, pitching himself to a strong 3.63 xERA over 26 outings. His metrics are impressive across the board, including a .295 xwOBA, 88.2 mph average exit velocity, 35.7% hard-hit rate, and a 5% walk rate. Ober also offers an above-average 25.2% strikeout rate, consisting of a 28.7% whiff rate and an elite 33.5% chase rate.
The Kansas City Royals present a favorable matchup for Ober. Last season, they were among baseball's weakest offenses, scoring less than 4.2 runs per game. That includes a horrible 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Bobby Witt Jr. remains a constant threat, but the rest of the Kansas City lineup is full of question marks.
Nick Martinez vs. Washington Nationals ($6.8K DK, $8.1K FD)
There aren't many reliable pitching options on this slate, so it feels like a spot worth punting on SP2 in tournaments. If that's a strategy you buy into, then Nick Martinez stands out among the value plays.
It flew under the radar, but Martinez had a solid season in 2023. He posted a 3.98 xERA and 3.73 xFIP across 110.2 innings pitched between being a starter and reliever. Martinez's 23% strikeout rate is nothing to get excited about, though he induces weak contact at an elite rate thanks to an 84.7 mph average exit velocity, 33.1% chase rate, and a fantastic 29.9% hard-hit rate.
Martinez also looks great today due to a matchup with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals only managed 4.3 runs per game in 2023. They struggled mightily against right-handed pitching, generating just an 89 wRC+. Lane Thomas, Keibert Ruiz, and CJ Abrams are all solid bats, but nothing about this lineup is particularly intimidating.
Also Consider: Kevin Gausman, Tyler Wells, Chris Sale
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Torkelson - 1B, DET vs. Erick Fedde ($5K DK, $3.4K FD)
His batting average left something to be desired, but Spencer Torkelson is fresh off a breakout season. He slugged 31 home runs, and the advanced metrics suggest he outperformed his .759 OPS. Those numbers include a .487 xSLG, .352 xwOBA, 14.1% barrel rate, and a 50.9% hard-hit rate.
Erick Fedde is back from a stint in the KBO last season. Although he performed well in South Korea, it's hard to believe he's rehabilitated from the pitcher who owns a 5.41 career ERA across six major league seasons. When we last saw Fedde in 2022, he surrendered a .451 xSLG, 43.5% hard-hit rate, and a .356 xwOBA en route to a 5.45 ERA.
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B vs. Trevor Rogers ($4.3K DK, $3.1K FD)
Ke'Bryan Hayes is looking to build off a solid yet underwhelming 2023 season. He slashed .271/.309/.453 with 15 home runs. Hayes doesn't walk much, but his batted-ball metrics—.273 xBA, .472 xSLG, 48.3% hard-hit rate, and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity—showcase a worthwhile upside. He's particularly effective against left-handed pitchers, who he slugged .531 against last season, part of a .482 career mark.
Trevor Rogers pitched only 18 innings last season, so there isn't much meat to that sample size. However, in 2022, he struggled greatly to the tune of a 4.84 xERA. Right-handed hitters gave Rogers a lot of grief, slugging .520 against him with a .381 wOBA.
Edouard Julien - 2B, MIN vs. Brady Singer ($3.3K DK, $2.9K FD)
Edouard Julien's first season in the majors was a success. He slashed .263/.381/.459 with 16 home runs and a 136 wRC+. In addition to elite plate discipline, underscored by a 14.3% chase rate, Julien showcased some impressive batted-ball metrics, such as a 13.1% barrel rate, 44.9% hard-hit rate, and a 38.8% sweet-spot rate.
Brady Singer is coming off a brutal year, producing a 4.96 xERA across 29 starts. Singer was lit up by opposing hitters, allowing a .452 xSLG, 91 mph average exit velocity, .276 xBA, and a generous 48.6% hard-hit rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez - OF, HOU vs. Clarke Schmidt ($5.7K DK, $4.3K FD)
Yordan Alvarez needs little introduction, and he's among the best hitters in the sport. He generated a .293/.407/.583 slash line in 2023 with a 170 wRC+. That includes an unbelievable .626 xSLG, 18% barrel rate, 52.2% hard-hit rate, and a 93.3 mph average exit velocity. Giving Alvarez a roster spot shouldn't require more justification than that.
Clarke Schmidt is not a bad pitcher, but he has a big problem with left-handed hitters. Lefties slugged .500 against him in 2023, part of a .494 career mark.
Christian Yelich, OF - MIL vs. Tylor Megill ($5.3K DK, $3.8K FD)
Christian Yelich will probably never reach the 44-home run mark he hit in 2019, though he had a very underrated season last year. He slashed .278/.370/.447 slash line with 19 home runs and a 122 wRC+. That production consisted of a .460 xSLG, 50.1% hard-hit rate, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, and a .362 xwOBA.
Tylor Megill can get lit up like the best of them. 2023 was a struggle, resulting in an ugly 5.85 xERA and 4.92 xFIP. Hitters of all handedness have given Megill trouble, but lefties own a .505 slugging percentage against him for his career.
Nick Martini, OF - CIN vs. Jake Irvin ($3.5K DK, $2.8K FD)
Nick Martini is off to a hot start this season, generating three extra-base hits (two home runs and one double) through only five at-bats. At 33 years old, is Martini for real? It's possible he's just a late bloomer. Martini has played only 142 games in his major league career, though he owns a respectable 117 wRC+, including a 136 wRC+ over 29 games with the Reds last season.
Jake Irvin looked awful during his rookie season. In 24 starts, he had a 5.13 xERA and 5.14 xFIP. Left-handed hitters slugged .496 against him with a .366 wOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Cincinnati Reds vs. Jake Irvin
Favorite Plays: Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jake Fraley, Nick Martini
2. Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tylor Megill
Favorite Plays: Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, William Contreras, Willy Adames, Sal Frelick
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