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Sam Chinitz presents his expert MLB DFS prop picks for Monday, October 5th. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
Baseball is back after a weekend-long hiatus, and Monday features a pair of intriguing ALDS games. Although full-season fantasy leagues have been finished for more than a week now, fantasy players still have opportunities to make money with DFS.
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The props available for the Astros vs. A's game are a little too close to call for my taste, but the Yankees vs. Rays game features some attractive props that DFS players should consider. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
More or Less Contest #4
Gerrit Cole more than 18.5 total pitching outs, Blake Snell more than 6.5 strikeouts, DJ LeMahieu more than 1.5 total bases.
Gerrit Cole more than 18.5 total pitching outs:
Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he only has to record one out in the seventh inning to hit the over on this prop. That’s a mark Cole has exceeded in each of his last four starts and seven of his 12 total starts this season. Plus, Cole got at least one out in the seventh inning in 22 of his 38 starts (58%) of his starts last season, including in all five of his postseason outings. Cole lasted only four innings in his most recent start against the Rays on August 31, but that was with Gary Sanchez behind the plate and before Cole embarked on a hot streak featuring a 1.32 ERA with a 16.2% swinging-strike rate over 34 innings. Combined with the fact that the Tampa Bay offense has posted a pedestrian .325 wOBA for the regular season, Cole’s track record of dominance and recent hot streak with Kyle Higashioka catching makes him worth betting on.
Blake Snell more than 6.5 strikeouts:
Snell has picked up at least seven strikeouts in four of his six starts with at least 80 pitches this year, and the Yankees appear unlikely to keep Snell from reaching that mark again on Monday. Snell relies primarily on his slider and curveball to generate strikeouts, and the New York offense has been only roughly average against those pitches with a 14.2% swinging-strike rate and a .266 xwOBA. Further working in Snell’s favor is that Monday’s game comes as a road game for the Yankees and the team posted a paltry .668 OPS away from Yankee Stadium this season compared to a league-best .907 mark at home. That advantage should allow Snell to work relatively deep into the game, bolstering his already solid chances of collecting more than six strikeouts.
DJ LeMahieu more than 1.5 total bases:
LeMahieu accumulated at least two total bases in 32 of his 52 games this year and 99 of his 154 games in 2019, giving him a 63.5% rate of two or more total bases in a game since the start of last season. And as good as Blake Snell is, LeMahieu matches up fairly well against the 27-year-old. For one, LeMahieu has mashed against lefties over the past two seasons with a combined .615 slugging percentage against southpaws. Also working in LeMahieu’s favor is Snell’s reliance on fastballs. Snell tends to throw his fastball around 50% of the time, and LeMahieu has posted a solid .563 xSLG against the pitch this season. A road game against an ace certainly isn’t an ideal matchup for LeMahieu, but the 32-year-old should manage to pick up at least two total bases on Monday and is worth picking in MKF as a result.
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
More risk-averse DFS players may prefer to opt for more or less contest #2 for this game (Gerrit Cole more than 18.5 total pitching outs, Blake Snell more than 16.5 total pitching outs), where taking the overs on total pitching outs for both pitchers is also an attractive bet for the reasons outlined above. Similarly, DFS players with higher risk tolerances would likely do well to double-down on the pitching matchup in this game, taking the overs in the second more or less contest and the positions recommended for more or less contest #4.
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