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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A couple of games we can look at today include the Pirates at Tigers, Angels at Astros, and the Star Shootout: Main Games.
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Pirates @ Tigers
More or Less Contest
Mitch Keller more than 4.5 strikeouts and Jose Urena more than 3.5 strikeouts
Hold your nose when clicking this prop as both pitchers are not exactly good, but neither are the offenses they are facing this afternoon. Mitch Keller has struck out 12 in 11 1/3 innings pitched to begin 2021, including a seven strikeout game against the Cubs two starts ago. He will be facing a Tigers team that has been horrendous against righties over the previous 10 days as they are posting a K rate of 32.5%, which ranks third-worst in baseball over that span. They are also posting a walk rate of just 3.8% and an abysmal wRC+ mark of just 34, so Keller should hopefully be able to navigate this lineup.
Jose Urena has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in each of his three starts in 2021 and has 17 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings pitched. He gets a solid matchup against the Pirates who have a K rate of 22% against right-handers over the previous 10 days and are only posting a wRC+ of 81, which ranks 12th-worst in the league. Urena should be able to get 4 Pirates in this and the more than certainly feels like the correct play.
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Angels @ Astros
More or Less Contest
Alex Cobb less than 6.5 strikeouts and Cristian Javier less than 6.5 strikeouts
I realize that Cobb has struck out 10 and seven batters in his first two starts, respectively, but they came against a couple of free-swinging teams in the Royals and White Sox, or at least they were at the time he faced them. Cobb has not been known as a high strikeout pitcher in his career as he has never averaged a K per 9 at any point. Tonight, he gets a tough matchup at Houston against an Astros team that is only striking out at a clip of 17.4% vs. right-handed pitchers over the previous 10 days, which ranks fifth-best in baseball over that span.
Cristian Javier is a bit dicier for me in this one, but feel the less than is the play here. He has not pitched since May 8th, so he could be a bit rusty in this one and may also not go as deep. He is facing an Angels team that is posting a K rate of 22.8% vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which ranks 13th-best in the league over that span. He has 11 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings pitched on the season, but all have come against the high-strikeout Oakland Athletics. His strikeout potential should be less in a matchup vs. a more patient offense like the Angels.
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Star Shootout: Main Games
More or Less Contest
Alex Cobb less than 6.5 strikeouts and Nick Pivetta more than 5.5 strikeouts
Monkey Knife Fight has Alex Cobb's strikeout total in a couple of places tonight and one of those is paired with Nick Pivetta. Pivetta 14 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings pitched to begin 2020 and has a seven strikeout game against the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight, he faces the Mariners, who are striking out at a clip of 29.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks seventh-worst in baseball over that span. They are also not showing a ton of patience at the plate vs. righties as they have just an 8.7% walk rate. Pivetta should be able to get to six vs. this offense, but it will be close just as an FYI.
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