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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The early part of the MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking to build off that momentum and hit the ground running as we progress into the 2024 campaign. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some really interesting matchups today. The pitching mix is deep, featuring aces, midrange starters, and worthwhile back-of-the-rotation punt arms, which will certainly lead to some interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but with an 11-game slate and so many options on the mound, there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative with your picks today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/19/2024 and the slate locking at 1:05 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Burnes vs. Seattle Mariners ($9.6K DK, $9.7K FD)
Corbin Burnes is, without question, my preferred SP1 today. Across nine starts, he sports an outstanding 2.90 xERA and a 3.29 xFIP. It's business as usual for Burnes, who is going on his fifth consecutive season of domination on the mound. The success includes an impressive .275 xwOBA, .223 xBA, 88 mph average exit velocity, .354 xSLG, and a 36.1% hard-hit rate. Burnes' 23.3% strikeout rate is slumping below his 29.9% career mark, but a 32.4% chase rate and a 28.9% whiff rate suggest that better strikeout days are ahead. Considering he has the highest ceiling of anyone on this slate, Burnes feels underpriced.
The Seattle Mariners lineup has been one of the more disappointing offenses in baseball so far this season. Despite holding down first place in the American League West, Seattle is scoring just 3.8 runs per game. That mark includes an underwhelming 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers alongside a league-worst 28.8% strikeout rate.
Nick Pivetta vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($8K DK, $9.2K FD)
For a little more of a discount, Nick Pivetta is another high-upside pitching option. Injury has limited his action so far this season, but through four starts, he owns a worthwhile 3.48 ERA. The advanced metrics indicate that Pivetta may be due for some regression, as evidenced by his 4.21 xERA. Still, the 2024 sample size is small, and the 31-year-old is coming off a breakout campaign. Across 142 2/3 innings pitched last season, Pivetta produced a 3.98 xERA and 3.55 xFIP. The headliner was his staggering 31.2% strikeout rate, which has dropped to a still-fantastic 27.5% strikeout rate so far in 2024.
Nick Pivetta, Bowel-Locking 80mph Curveball. 💩 pic.twitter.com/CgN3OAfv0P
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2024
The St. Louis Cardinals offense is starting to show signs of life after a sluggish start to the year, but they are still a bottom-five scoring team in the majors, plating fewer than 3.8 runs per game. They have fared better against right-handed pitchers, though that only amounts to a middling 102 wRC+ and a .135 ISO. The Cardinals are also striking out at an above-average 23.9% rate, opening the door for Pivetta to approach double-digit strikeouts.
Also Consider: Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Jose Soriano
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Salvador Perez - C, KC vs. JP Sears ($5.4K DK, $3.4K FD)
Salvador Perez is tearing the cover off the ball this season, producing a .333/.400/.549 slash line with eight home runs. His torrid start to the season includes a .610 xSLG, 16.8% barrel rate, and a 51.9% hard-hit rate. Perez is notoriously brutal on left-handed pitching, slugging .541 against southpaws in 2024, part of a .479 career mark.
JP Sears is having a decent year but with a 4.44 xERA and 4.71 xFIP, there is plenty of opportunity to attack here. Opposing hitters are producing a .467 xSLG, 41.6% hard-hit rate, 9.1% barrel rate, and a 90.7 mph average exit velocity.
Willy Adames - SS, MIL vs. Spencer Arrighetti ($5K DK, $3.6K FD)
Willy Adames' .244/.323/.426 triple slash line doesn't jump out at you, but he's squaring up the ball better than the surface stats tell us. Adames has generated an impressive .469 xSLG, 10.4% barrel rate, and a 73.7 mph bat speed, resulting in seven home runs. Interestingly, Adames has always been a reverse splits hitter, slugging .446 against right-handed pitchers this season, part of a .453 career mark.
Spencer Arrighetti has struggled during his first big league exposure. Over six starts and 26 1/3 innings pitched, he owns a 7.52 ERA. The underlying numbers are more forgiving, but they still aren't pretty, amounting to a 5.24 xERA. Opposing hitters have generated a .279 xBA and a .457 xSLG against Arrighetti so far this season.
Abraham Toro - 2B/3B, OAK vs. Brady Singer ($3.8K DK, $2.8K FD)
Abraham Toro has thrived in the Oakland Athletics' leadoff role. He sports a .298/.351/.447 slash line with four home runs and a 133 wRC+. Toro has never been a particularly effective major league hitter before this season, but the 27-year-old may be turning a corner. His success would seemingly be supported by his 41.7% sweet-spot rate, .268 xBA, and a .430 xSLG.
Brady Singer's 2.84 ERA would give the appearance of a dominant starter, but he's due for regression. The 27-year-old sports a much-less-impressive 4.41 xERA through nine outings. Singer is getting hit hard by opposing batters to the tune of a .445 xSLG, 8.7% barrel rate, 89.9 mph average exit velocity, and a 40.6% hard-hit rate. Despite the better results, Singer has not pitched remarkably better than he did in 2023, when he posted a 5.52 ERA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Judge - OF, NYY vs. Chris Flexen ($6.2K DK, $4.5K FD)
Whatever contributed to Aaron Judge's early-season slump is firmly in the rearview mirror now. He has homered six times in the past 12 games played. Overall, Judge is up to a .973 OPS with 12 home runs. The success includes predictably elite underlying metrics, like a .707 xSLG, 26.3% barrel rate, 61% hard-hit rate, and a 96.9 mph average exit velocity.
Chris Flexen is going to be one of the preferred pitchers to target on this slate. Across nine appearances, he sports a 4.29 xERA and a 4.56 xFIP. It's an improvement over his 6.86 ERA from a season ago, but the sample size is too small to meaningfully reverse his reputation. In specific, right-handed hitters have always had Flexen's number, slugging .625 against him in 2023, part of a .502 career mark.
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, NYY vs. Chris Flexen ($4.5K DK, $3.5K FD)
Speaking of right-handed hitters that should take Chris Flexen deep today, Giancarlo Stanton is on a heater right now. He has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games, launching five home runs in that span. Overall, Stanton is up to a .838 OPS with 11 home runs and a 127 wRC+. That success includes a 52.6% hard-hit rate, 17.9% barrel rate, .473 xSLG, and a 93 mph average exit velocity.
Jo Adell - OF, LAA vs. Michael Lorenzen ($3.4K DK, $3K FD)
In a surprising development, Jo Adell's price has started to drop again, making him a hard-to-pass-up value play. Adell is up to a .847 OPS with eight home runs and eight stolen bases. The on-field production is supported by his impressive batted-ball metrics, which include a .564 xSLG, 14.1% barrel rate, 46.2% hard-hit rate, and a .299 xBA.
Jo Adell go-ahead blast! 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/4y9iX4wjFP
— MLB (@MLB) May 19, 2024
Michael Lorenzen certainly isn't the most vulnerable pitcher on this slate, but he is worse than his 3.75 ERA tells us. He carries a 4.75 xERA and 4.58 xFIP through his first six starts. Lorenzen has generated reverse-split results in recent years, surrendering a .614 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters this season, up from a .418 mark in 2023.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. New York Yankees vs. Chris Flexen
- Favorite Plays: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe
2. Milwaukee Brewers vs. Spencer Arrighetti
- Favorite Plays: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Willy Adames, Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz
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