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Nick Federline's top March Madness futures bets as of March 3, 2020. He analyzes Vegas' available futures bets and recommends the top expert bets.
With Selection Sunday now less than two weeks away, it is time to look at what Vegas is offering for futures bets and what teams might be currently undervalued.
Most sportsbooks currently offer national championship odds, and plenty of additional odds will be added in the coming days such as whether a team will reach the Final 4, the highest-numbered seed to make the Sweet 16, and whether the national championship-winning team will be an odd or even seed-number.
As teams enter the conference tournament phase of the 2019-2020 college basketball season, the importance of building momentum, getting healthy, and consistent three-point shooting becomes of the utmost importance.
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The Favorites
Entering March, the oddsmakers consistently have pegged Kansas as the team most likely to win the National Championship, and with good reason. The duo of guard Devon Dotson and center Udoka Azubuike gives Kansas two Wooden Award contenders and arguably the best one-two punch in the country. Kansas' Achilles heel is its free-throw shooting, where it ranks 289th in the country with a 67.2% free throw percentage. Sportsbooks presently are offering Kansas at +700 odds to win the National Championship.
Baylor, who split a season series with Kansas, is being offered at +900 alongside Gonzaga. Baylor's suffocating defense makes them the more appealing of the two options on paper and having lost only two games to teams not named Kansas proves that Baylor's 10-1 record in Quad-1 games is no joke. The Zags, meanwhile, sports a gaudy 29-2 record and a perfect record in West Coast Conference play. Dayton, Duke, Kentucky, San Diego State, Maryland, and Louisville are also being offered at +1900 and lower, and have their share of pros and cons.
Florida State
Coach Leonard Hamilton has led the Seminoles to a 24-5 record, with a strong resume that could give them their highest seed ever, surpassing the 3-seed that they have obtained in four tournaments. Hamilton, a 1971 graduate of UT-Martin, has built yet another strong bench, relying on an 11-man rotation. The Noles have such depth that they can afford off games from future NBA guards Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest, because of players like 5-star freshman forward Patrick Williams and Ole Miss transfer center Dominik Olejniczak coming off the bench and contributing like a starter on some nights.
Florida State has come a long way since its season-opening loss at Pitt, and has shown recently just how dangerous they can be in a convincing late February win over Louisville.
Current Odds: +2000 to win the National Championship
Brigham Young (BYU)
The BYU Cougars have not lost a game since mid-January and don't look likely to anytime soon if they maintain their prolific shooting. First-year Coach Mark Pope has an embarrassing toolshed of talent at his disposal. In addition to star forward Yoeli Childs, who is a matchup nightmare and arguably the most talented offensive forward in the country, the Cougars senior guards Jake Toolson and TJ Haws are high-volume and efficient shooters that can take over a game.
One downside to the Cougars' chances is their depth if Childs or Toolson gets into foul trouble. The team usually relies on a short bench and does not rebound well with Childs off the floor. If BYU can get caught up in a handful of high-scoring affairs, they have the offensive chops to take a deep run through the field.
Current Odds: +2000 to reach the Final 4
Florida
Entering the season, the national media hype train promoted Florida as a perennial National Title contender. Following a difficult non-conference schedule, the Gators are rounding into form and should enter the Tournament in the 7-to-10 seed range, with a lot riding on the fate of their February 7 game against Kentucky in Gainesville. The Gators have a lot of the desirable characteristics in a potential title contender. They challenged themselves out of conference, have an experienced and talented big man in former Virginia Tech transfer Kerry Blackshear, and a horde of talented former top-100 guards such as freshman Scottie Lewis who are hitting their stride at just the right time.
Under Coach Mike White, Florida has reached an Elite 8 and has won at least a game in each of its past three tournaments. With his most talented team to date, and the seemingly most wide-open field in recent memory, the opportunity for a longshot champion like the 2013-2014 UConn Huskies.
Current Odds: +8000 to win the National Championship
UCLA
A few months ago, the thought of UCLA appearing in the postseason may have been laughable. Coach Mick Cronin, in his first year, has transformed the season thanks to five Quad-1 and Quad-2 wins in the month of February and has the Bruins in first place in the Pac-12. The top seed in the Pac-12 receives a bye until the Quarterfinals, meaning they would need just three wins in three days to claim the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
After a first-round win over California or Utah, UCLA would have to stave off either USC or Colorado, and then finish with likely Oregon or Arizona State. Getting the first-place team in a conference at such long odds is a worthwhile wager for the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas.
Current Odds: +2200 to win the Pac-12 Tournament
William & Mary
Last but not least, the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) opens its tournament on March 7 in Washington, DC and the field has been set. In order to claim the automatic bid, William & Mary would have to navigate past Elon and likely Towson before the conference championship game. If the Tribe, who holds the CAA's #2 seed in the tournament, is able to get conquer two middling opponents, a game against one of Hofstra, Charleston & Delaware in the championship game.
Nathan Knight, the most talented player in the CAA and a future NBA first-round draft pick, is the player to watch for the Tribe, averaging a double-double and expanding his offensive game beyond the arc this season. William & Mary would enter a hypothetical championship game as at worst a narrow underdog, which would be a chance to hedge your bet at that point.
Current Odds: +500 to win the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Odds may vary. Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
