RADIO
Who among us saw the film Gremlins and didn’t want their own little pet Mogwai like Gizmo? He was cute and curious and had a propensity to sing calming melodies. He was one little creature you weren’t ashamed to admit you liked and why not?
The tricky part was that little Mogwai would multiply if you spilled water on him (great business plan if you can keep that up) but he would turn into an evil, mischievous, nasty little creature known as a Gremlin if you were to accidentally feed him after midnight.
NFL running backs these are like Mogwai. If you limit their touches and resist the urge to utilize them on every down and give in to their demands, you can avoid turning your running back into a locker room-distracting, salary cap-wrecking monster.
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Trouble Is Brewing
Ezekiel Elliott has become a Gremlin. We saw it happening early on. He had his “Feed me” celebration after every first down, big run, sideline shot, camera pose, Postmates delivery, etc. The signs were there. We just had too much fun with it all. Now, the Cowboys have a Gremlin in their backfield.
Zeke wanted to be fed. He wanted to amass carries. He wanted to score touchdowns. He wanted to be the force behind the Cowboys’ success. This was great news. I mean, who doesn’t want a running back with that kind of drive?
Unfortunately, the excessive feeding of Elliott and other heavily-utilized backs (Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson) does three things. First, as volume increases, his opportunity for touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, exposure, and fantasy value all climb. Yes, the perceived value of players can be influenced by fantasy football. Second, you give them the leverage they need in contract talks. Third, you set your organization up for a tough decision when the contract holdout happens and it risks unsettling your team’s trust. The Cowboys’ excessive usage of Zeke was simply a tactic to exploit the value of a guy on a rookie contract. The idea of riding your young running back until he has no tread left is nothing new. The problem is, these running backs are getting smarter about how to deal with this organization-driven tactic.
Two seasons ago, we saw the high-profile holdout with Le'Veon Bell. We saw the same this season with Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott. It’s very likely we will see it even more moving forward, especially if a running back has between 300 to 400 touches in a single season. How will this affect fantasy football and roster construction moving forward? First, let’s take a look at both sides of the argument on running backs.
Running Out of Time?
On one side, there is the “running backs are overrated” stance, which makes a strong case as to why an offense’s schemes and run blocking is more important than who is running the ball. The other side of it is the “if you’re going to use me at unprecedented usage rates, I should be appropriately paid” argument, which also makes valid points. By running a guy into the ground while he’s still on his rookie deal, a team is maximizing the value of the player under his current, team-friendly contract. It’s smart from a team-building perspective, but it also takes advantage of the pay ceiling for rookie running backs. So which side is right? The simple answer is both.
The core problem at hand in 2019 is running backs holding out. Fantasy football has contributed greatly to this, whether we like it or not. Imagine being a running back in the NFL and being 15th in yards per carry (YPC) among all backs with a minimum of 50 carries. In your third season, your team gives you the second-most touches in the league. Let’s also say you’ve benefitted from the highest amount of red-zone touches and finish the season with more touchdowns than any other back in the NFL. Also, understand the fact your backup came in and averaged 1.1 yards per carry more than you and had been cut by two other NFL teams that very same season (and the Raiders were one…the Raiders). What’s the best argument you can make for demanding a big contract? Volume is the answer. In this scenario, you were Todd Gurley and your backup was C.J. Anderson.
Before Zeke’s six-year, $90,000,000 contract, Todd Gurley was the highest-paid back in the league and C.J. Anderson had just signed with his fourth team in the past three years. Following Gurley’s year-three breakout, he was signed to the biggest contract among running backs in the NFL at that time. The wild part of all this is that Gurley averaged more yards per carry as a rookie than he did in his third year. Jeff Fisher, the coach from his rookie year, was ridiculed and labeled as incredibly inept that season and the team suffered offensively. Gurley’s coach from year three, Sean McVay, was hailed as Jesus Christ reincarnate. Yet, despite the offensive prowess of McVay and a passing game that should spread out defenses to open up the run game, Gurley’s yards per carry average fell.
The only difference in Gurley’s performance was the huge spike in usage/volume. Usage is also what dictates whether someone will go number one in a fantasy draft, or whether they go undrafted. Regardless of the success rate and the talent of a running back, volume is king in fantasy and volume is also key in providing leverage for running backs in contract discussions.
As Zeke’s fourth NFL season wrapped up, the contract extension had been signed and the evidence for his decline in production was already apparent. Using metrics from his three full seasons, the YPC went from 5.1 to 4.7 to only 4.5 in 2019. His speed appeared sapped as well since his carries of 20+ yards dropped from 14 to 11 to just four in 2019. His longest carry this year was just 27 yards. We aren’t even a year into his extension and we’re already seeing the decline. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard, who served more time as a receiver in college, came in and averaged 5.3 YPC and had the same amount of 20+ runs (four) on less than a third of the carries.
Taking Action
With numerous examples of how running backs are replaceable circulating in the NFL, the solution seems quite clear. Teams should split duties among multiple backs on rookie contracts, or risk having to commit a huge salary to the most injury-prone position in the sport. Had the Rams platooned Gurley with another back in 2017, it’s very likely they could’ve avoided committing such a huge salary to their running back, and likely could’ve replicated their success that season, regardless. Instead of committing salary to other, more impactful positions, they committed four years to a guy who very likely has an arthritic knee. The Steelers let Le'Veon Bell hold out and eventually walk, following a 400+ touch season. James Conner came in last season and scored more touchdowns in two fewer games, while also averaging a half-yard more per carry in rushing. Meanwhile, Bell had a career-low 3.2 YPC with zero carries over 20 yards.
Was it scheme issues, wear and tear, or age? The truth is, it was probably a combination of all those things, which is why having a split backfield of two rookie contracts would prevent all that from cropping up. When you limit their carries, you limit their leverage. When there’s no leverage, there’s no holding out for absurd salary demands. It’s really that simple.
So, NFL GMs, if your team chemistry goes on the fritz, your salary cap blows up, your contract discussions conk out, or you let a lineman walk in free agency, tune out all the fans, check all the metrics and running back research, and look at the Patriots’ running back model, 'cause you never can tell - there just might be a gremlin in your backfield.
Impact on Fantasy Drafting & Dynasty Leagues
You may be wondering what the fantasy impact is here. The truth is, many organizations are moving towards a committee approach. Others are still sold on the idea of having their best guy on the field as much as possible. Over time, as more analytics folks inhabit NFL front offices, you’ll start to see less big running back contracts and more split backfields with guys on rookie deals. Take a look at Green Bay if you want an idea of what the future will look like.
Green Bay has two backs, both who are capable receivers, on rookie deals. Both still have plenty of juice, too. By splitting the backfield, they’re preserving the lifespan of their guys, while keeping defenses guessing as to what the play may be. For the Patriots, as well as they do things, one thing they do poorly is tipping their playcalling tendencies, based on the running back in the backfield for that play. When Sony Michel is in, it’s almost certainly a run. When James White is in, it’s pretty much always a pass. The Packers have the smart backfield of the future and I expect many teams will go down this road. For fantasy purposes, there are a few running backs I’m afraid of for the 2020 season (based on what we know of the current backfield situations).
Buyer Beware
- Ezekiel Elliott- He finished as the RB #4 in half-point leagues. I’m a little worried from a production standpoint since Zeke still got around 77% of the carries against Pollard’s 23%. What’s even more concerning was Pollard’s YPC was nearly a full yard better, and his big-play ability is much greater than Zeke’s. Zeke had nine games this season under 20 carries, including four of the last five games of the season. If you think Zeke is still the explosive, fast, powerful, angry runner from his first season, check the tapes. He’s certainly lost a step and doesn’t have the same burst of acceleration he once had. Maybe some of that is due to conditioning but why risk it? I’d sell him high while you still can in a dynasty league and go after picks and someone like Nick Chubb if possible. In re-draft leagues, I wouldn’t consider him as the top pick or even in the top-five this year. I think he’s probably going to finish somewhere closer to the RB #10 than RB #1. Don’t fall for it this season.
- Melvin Gordon – Gordon is a big question mark going forward because we don’t know where he’s going to land. I am always wary of him, due to his injury history, but Gordon should still physically be fine, when healthy. Just keep it in mind before giving up much for him in a dynasty format. In the past, Gordon has been fairly touchdown-dependent. It’s certainly skewed people’s perceptions of him, but he is still very elusive and capable of having a big year. The Chargers had a pretty bad offensive line and much of Gordon’s success came despite the O-line, not because of it. He’s completely situation-dependent, but I think people may be underestimating how talented of a back he actually is. If you have an opportunity to buy-low, go for it.
- Le’Veon Bell – There’s not a lot for us to be excited about with Bell’s future prospects. He didn’t have a great line last season, but he also didn’t look very good. If the Jets don’t make an effort this offseason to prioritize fixing the line, steer clear of Bell in re-drafts and try to get rid of him as the season gets closer to kickoff. If they bring in a rookie running back, you could very well see the Jets working towards a 75/25 timeshare, maybe even something that becomes closer to 50/50 if the new back is effective. I still think it’s more of an issue with his age, lack of explosiveness, and the line, so I want no part of him this season.
- Todd Gurley – Sell, sell, sell. He was the most touchdown-dependent rusher this season in the NFL. Ever since the Rams O-line started falling apart and teams realized Jared Goff is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when under duress, Gurley’s impact has been minimal. He had zero 100-yard rushing games in 2019. He did have 12 rushing touchdowns. To me, he should be valued at the highest around Mark Ingram and at the lowest, Latavius Murray. His knee may actually be deteriorating at a slower rate than the Rams O-line. Gurley finished 14th this season and that was extremely fortunate for his owners, so I’d trade him away in dynasty and I wouldn’t take him anywhere near where his ADP will be in 2020 in redraft.
RB to Target in 2020
- Nick Chubb – Nick Chubb finished seventh in half-point formats last season. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt just got pulled over with all kinds of substances in his car recently. If there was any hesitation on your behalf for the Browns backfield in 2020 due to Hunt being there, this should quell your nerves.In addition to the uncertainty surrounding Hunt, Kevin Stefanski was named the new head coach. As the Vikings offensive coordinator, Minnesota was fourth in the NFL in rush attempts and sixth in rushing yards per game (133). This bodes well for Baker Mayfield’s errant play to calm down yet offers even more upside for Nick Chubb. Chubb’s breakout season as the league’s #2 rusher was a good preview for a possibly bigger year this upcoming season. Chubb only had eight rushing touchdowns in 2019, despite being #2 in rush yards. I expect a more positive regression to the mean next season, especially with Stefanski leading the team. Regardless of Hunt’s status, the Browns are going to run the ball a lot. I think Chubb should be a top 10 pick in re-draft leagues and should finish in the top-five among running backs in 2020.
- Miles Sanders – Typically, I steer clear of guys in committees where the splits are unclear, but this one could work to our advantage. I think the predominant thoughts going into fantasy drafts in 2020 will be that Philly will continue to use a timeshare, be it with Jordan Howard or another RB. If that’s the case and Sanders slips past the RB12 or so, snatch him up.Sanders got better as the season went along, though injuries did hamper his late-season stretch. As the season progressed, it became apparent Sanders was much more talented and explosive than Howard, so even with the two backs splitting time early on, I think the team will lean more on Sanders as the season progresses. He finished as the RB17 on the season and his pass-catching upside is huge. Best case, he could break into the top-seven if the Eagles make some scheme improvements and upgrade their weapons outside. Worst case, he finishes around where he did this year and it’s not a huge sacrifice for your draft capital.
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