RADIO
Well, I got my low ownership I wanted on FPX, and it looks like I can get it next time too. They were predictably awful, and RNG was the nuts. TES was efficient, and LGD held serve on the blue side. In the LCK, HLE got over on DRX, and DWG took three games, but they finished off T1, who seem to have cleaned up some of their draft issues.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM on Sunday, February 28th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 Gen G (-375) vs. AFS (+175)
Gen G unexpectedly dropped a game to Fredit Brion last time out, which made the fade work even better than expected, and AFS came through with a lovely 2-0 as dogs. Both teams performed as expected on Friday, so we are hoping to continue that trend today. I bet you can guess what I'm going to tell you, but let's take a look anyway.
Afreeca has been surprisingly good in the early game with some very close numbers to Gen G. They only trail Gen by 1% in first blood, rift herald, and first three turrets. Gen has the better first turret rate and GD@15 by wider margins, though. AFS has a better first dragon rate, and the two teams are even in total dragons. Baron numbers are a different story, with Gen G leading there by a full 23%, their vision advantage likely contributes to this baron differential. Gen G also has significant leads in both GPM and CSM.
As usual, when Gen G faces any of the lower tier competition in the LCK, they should be heavily favored, and I think they are nearly a lock to win. Here it comes now, BUT with Afreeca being near the bottom of the league in pace, I don't know how well Gen G can score. I think I say this every Gen G slate. Today they are the third highest-priced team across the board on DK, but they have the lowest kill projection of any favorite. Combined with their low assist per kill number, which has fallen further now to only 1.9, be very careful with your choices from the side of Gen G.
Top GEN Plays
- Clid - JNG - Leads the team in KP% and is second in KS%
- Ruler - ADC - 30% KS in the teams wins.
- Rascal - TOP - I think I'm off the Gen G team slot today, so Rascal is back on the radar as a possible play.
6:00 AM: Liiv SBG (+130) vs. Nonghshim RedForce (-170)
Nongshim started week six to a rude welcome from T1 in the form of a sweep. SBG, too, was swept by a top team in their return but looked good doing it somehow. In classic SBG fashion, they found a way to lose to Damwon while up in gold, holding baron buff and pushing into the base with inhibitors down. If either of these teams wants to move up from the basement and attempt to sneak into the playoffs, that move starts here.
SBG has been the better of the two teams in the early game, holding the rift heralds, all turrets, first drake, and GD@15 leads. SBG holds the edge in total dragons, but NSRF has better baron stats even though SBG does have an advantage in vision numbers. I think SBG has the overall edge in team stats.
SBG squad may have reached its final evolution with OnFleek returning from his ban and Prince taking over as the starting adc. They may also go right back to Croco as they are 0-4 with OnFleek, albeit versus T1 and DWG, so they should be lenient. Odd to say coming off a loss, but I think SBG has some momentum here; they are also on the blue side, so they will have the chance to lock in a power pick for Prince. The kill numbers, too, are pointing to a dog or pass spot for me. Nongshim are still over 19 deaths in their losses, and SBG sits at 17. Nongshim unfortunately only picks up about 15 kills in their wins, but SBG is near to 18. SBG is better early, they have some momentum, they are on blue, and they have better upside. Yup, that's dog or pass for me, and do give me SBG to win here 2-1.
Top SBG Plays:
- Fate - MID - has his jungle duo partner back and a great matchup versus Bay.
- OnFleek - JNG - has historically been a 70%KP and 20%KS guy. He should return to those numbers once he settles in. Slight sub risk here, but I think he gets the full series in.
- Prince - ADC - 72%KP and 30%KS in the academy league, plus he makes things fit nicely.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: V5 (-135) vs. LNG (+105)
Tonight's early LPL tilt is much more appetizing than last night's, and today we get a pair of fringe playoff teams looking to improve their standing. Both teams have had their return to action post-break, albeit with drastically different opponents and results. V5 dropped a clean 2-0 on OMG in their first game back. At the same time, LNG had to face TES and was rewarded with a spanking 2-0. These two teams might be better than those involved in last night's early matchup, but they are exactly as hard to pick as their lower-ranked cousins.
V5 should have the early edge in this one with leads in rift heralds, GD@15, first three turrets, and first drake. LNG has the advantage in first blood and first turret. Total drakes favor LNG, while V5 sports a 25% edge in baron numbers despite being at a considerable disadvantage in vision score. There seems to be a slight advantage for V5 in the team stats.
V5 also has the edge in being on the blue side for this matchup. The comfort of the first pick helped to carry the day for yesterday's toss-up, and it likely helps today too. Both teams have had some lineup issues with V5 swapping adcs, top laners throughout the split, and LNG just tops. Ale will get the start for LNG, and LangX seems to have reclaimed his starting spot for V5, but I don't trust LNG to not swap after a loss. LangX should stay, but in the bottom lane, it's a different story Trigger has now won four games in a row and draws the start here. Hopefully, that little bit of consistency is enough for V5.
I do slightly prefer V5 in this one, even though I don't trust Trigger not to get swapped if they lose. The kill numbers in this one are as close as the teams are, both projecting nearly 17 in a win. With side selection, momentum, and a tad bit more consistency, I think V5 takes this one 2-1.
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG - leads the team in KP% and is second to the adc in KP%
- Trigger - ADC - reluctant recommendation here based on his price, but you're rolling the dice on them, not swapping if they drop a game.
- Ppgod - SUP - second on the team in KP%
- Mole - MID - glue guy, narrowly third in both kill metrics.
4:00 AM: Rare Atom (-800) vs. OMG (+475)
Rare Atom struggled mightily with TT on Wednesday, but then again, so did JDG on Friday, so maybe that's nothing to be concerned about. OMG came back from break to a swift sweep at the hands of V5. Now we've got a matchup between the two that seems pretty one-sided. Let's take a look and find out if that's the case.
OMG are active early leading RA in herald, first blood, and first drake. Though they haven't been able to convert that activity into gold leads. Rare Atom has the edge in first turrets, first three turrets, vision score, and neutral monster objectives. OMG looks like they will come out swinging, but RA should weather the storm and take the win.
Rare Atom is the most expensive team on the slate, making sense to reflect their Vegas odds. Both RA and OMG are in the bottom third of the league in pace. We just saw RA pick up a win over TT 12-5, and their lone loss in that series was 4-7 in kill score. The only bright spot for their scoring is that they could be down early and be looking to fight their way back into the match. They could also be down early and just passively lose the game. Like we saw BLG do to this same OMG squad before break, that's the same BLG that previously upset Rare Atom. The coincidences are astounding, but my conspiracy theories, non-withstanding RA, should win. I think they do so, just not cleanly in another 2-1 fashion, not unlike what we saw from them versus TT.
Top RA Plays:
- Fofo - MID - second on the team in both kill metrics.
- Leyan - JNG - leads the team in KS%.
- Hang - SUP - leads the team in KP%.
6:00 AM: SNG (+150) vs. Invictus Gaming (-190)
Invictus took down undefeated EDG on Friday, but there will be no shelter here as IG is back in action today and again on Tuesday. SNG will have the whole week to think about their loss to JDG and prep for IG. Can IG continue to perform at a high level with Puff back in the lineup? Let's find out.
SNG is the second-worst early game team in the league, per our friends at Oracle's Elixir. Invictus sit seventh in that metric and enjoy an advantage in every relevant stat category except for vision numbers. SNG has not been good this year; they have played very passively handshaking on late-game with teams, but unfortunately, entering those late-game scenarios at a severe disadvantage.
After that big win, I think IG will be very popular today. I think the only thing that gives me pause is the rapid-fire nature of IG's current schedule. Without a ton of time to prepare for each opponent individually, IG could suffer. Then I realize that it's IG and that they have never particularly cared for metagaming or strategy. That reduces my worries to the usual for IG that they take a game off. They have been better about that this split, so I'll take IG to win here 2-0.
Top IG plays
- XUN - JNG - leads the team in KP% and KS%.
- Puff - ADC - was spectacular in his first match back.
- Rookie - MID - Always dangerous 68% KP and 20% KS.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 2-0, SBG 2-1, V5 2-1, RA 2-1, IG 2-0. SBG is my only dog play, but I think everyone on the LPL side has a shot, even though it's more about the favorites failing than the dogs coming through.
- After sorting through the slate, none of the favs have an excellent matchup for kill upside. All the LPL favs are around 17 kills per win, with Gen and Nongshim clocking at 16. It's going to be a tight slate, so pick and choose your spots carefully.
- Alright, everyone, let's get after it tonight and come back with some green since we'll be back on two-gamers til Thursday. DK rolls out the monster contests next weekend with the 150K guaranteed Dragon Slayer on Saturday and the 100k Turret Takedown on Sunday. Tonight's contests are no slouch, though, unless you play on FD, where it's always the same.
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