RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings & FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 3/8/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
We knew last night was going to be a wide-open one, and it was. Gen G with BLG was the nuts on DK with double jungle, no less. DRX and surprisingly OMG both swept. TES had to reverse sweep IG, and that depressed the scoring in that matchup. Things should calm down tonight with a two-game slate in the LPL. JDG will look to move up in the playoff standings in a match with V5, reaching a must-win status if they want to qualify. RNG will look to continue their run atop the league with a gimme versus Estar.
Seeding will be massive for LPL teams, and everyone should play hard to the end. The top ten of seventeen teams qualify, with the bottom four playing off in the first round. Things follow a standard bracket, with the higher teams each receiving a bye into the next round of matches until we reach the quarterfinals when the top two seeds finally enter the fray. Now the wrinkles start with the addition of a losers bracket. The winners advance to the semi-final, but the losers will playoff for the right to face the semi-final loser with a passport to the finals on the line. Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, March 8th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: V5 (+250) vs. JDG (-350)
JDG are 3-1 since returning from the LNY break, but they are still rounding into form. V5 are 1-2, with their win being over the likes of OMG. They got swept by a pair of teams near them in the standings SNG and LNG. That's not a good look for their playoff aspirations, and they are currently on the outside looking in. The competition for playoff berths and seeding will be fierce. The playoffs themselves will be a grueling ladder of death. Imagine having to win six straight best of five series against the top teams in the LPL. That's the route one of the bottom four teams will face if they want to claim the spring crown.
JDG has kicked things up a notch since the return from break. LPL should stay on 11.3 for this week, according to my top-secret sources (shoutout to the LPL discord server for always being there for us no betting or dfs chat allowed btw just fanboi SZN). Using those stats only, it's easy to see that JDG should have the upper hand in this matchup. It's a small sample, but the teams have played similar competition during the time frame, so I'm confident in using it to identify trends. JDG has the edge in nearly every stat category.
JDG is always going to be that team-fighting thing, and V5 is a similarly constructed team. Relying on their god-tier support to start things off, they want to stay close in this game and then try to pick up some late-game team fight wins. The problem is I think that JDG will be ahead in drakes or gold or both when that happens. JDG is also more talented and has better consistency as they have the LPL finals roster out again, not the revolving door at ADC like V5 does. V5 did beat JDG 2-1 last summer, but replacing samD with Trigger ain't it. That's my sticking point in this matchup. It's Loken>>Trigger for me.
I like JDG to sweep this matchup, but I have them projected slightly behind whoever wins the second matchup in kills. V5 could be a slate break if they win, as JDG does give up nearly 20 deaths in their losses. I don't see it, but on a two-game slate and given the scrappy team fight-driven nature of this matchup, it could happen. We've seen far stranger outcomes.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG - second in KP% and tied for first in KS% since the break.
- LvMao - SUP - leads the team in KP%. This man and Rell are unfair. If V5 doesn't keep them apart, it will be a long night for them.
- Loken - ADC - his numbers are down since break, but I think we see them trend back up with a premium matchup.
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4:00 AM: RNG (-1800) vs. Estar (+800)
RNG is the undisputed master of the LPL at this point. Since LNY, they have beaten LNG, RW, EDG, and FPX to drive that point home. Estar has looked to be on the take at times and has amazingly lost every game since LNY. Yes, game, not just series. To be fair, they have played JDG, RA, TES, and WE. They have also held some substantial leads in several of those games before TRAGICALLY throwing them away.
There is no way around it. This match is RNG favored all the way. Estar is bringing Insulator back to the starting lineup today, and you know how much I dislike inconsistency. I've got RNG projected for an extra half of a kill over JDG, plus they have an impressive 2.5 assists per kill. Any RNG players are on the table here. RNG even has the revenge narrative of Wei and Crying facing their former squad, nevermind that Cryin was actually on loan from RNG and therefore was never actually on Estar.
Two-game slate conspiracy theory time. Remember last year when RNG was death as a favorite? I indeed do, and I'm here to tell you why we might see it again tonight. RNG might be about to have a case of the Mondays. They are coming off the HUGE win over EDG just a day ago in the late game. Estar have had two days off to prep, and you know that the champ always gets everyone's best shot. There is a world where RNG takes a deep breath after a big win and start looking forward to a week off. They next play as the late game versus JDG next Sunday morning. They could stumble versus a scrappy team that has played well but faced tough competition and made some tragic errors. I'm not saying to lock in 2-10 Estar to win over 10-1 RNG; what I am saying is that for gpp on a two-game slate, I just gave you a reason to hedge out an Estar lineup for a couple bucks and some funsies to avoid your case of the Mondays. Imagine how tilted you'd be if you've been chasing Estar wins for a week eating heart-breaking loss after loss only to jump off now.
Top RNG Plays:
- Play whoever you want and fits. They're too good and can't lose. 😉
Summary
- TLDR: JDG 2-0, RNG 2-0. Dog plays are always live, especially on a two-gamer. Both the favorites have the week off to prepare for a big showdown with each other next Sunday morning. Entirely possible either one trips over their shoelaces today. Not at all LIKELY, but possible.
- Good luck out there tonight, everyone! See you back tomorrow and throughout the week to lead up to one more big weekend of five-game slates. Email you DK VIP reps and see if they can get us some more big-time contests to daydream about.
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