RADIO
I think we all knew last night felt too easy, and with KT getting run, it certainly proved to be a bit of a disaster. I know I got crushed, and it would have taken me at least two wives worth of lineups to arrive at Bang captain lineups. What's done is done right, and no matter how much of a sure thing something looks, that's why they play the games.
Cliches aside, we've got a pretty one-sided slate today, or is that two-sided. SNG is taking on LGD as the latter continues to contend with OMG for the worst team in the league honors. BLG looks to hand RNG their first loss of the split in the late game. It can be tough to get back on the horse after a rough day like yesterday, but the opportunity for BLG to tilt me only comes along, what, like twice a week. LETS GOOOO!
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, February 1st, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: SNG (-950) vs. LGD (+475)
Both teams come into this match after swift 2-0s on Thursday, SNG up and LGD down. LGD sit 0-4 with only one game win in league play, and some of those struggles can be attributed to Kramers absence for the first few weeks. He's been back for two matches yet, and they haven't picked up a game win in that time. SNG have had some ups and downs this split, beating TES in the opener and losing 2-0 to Rare Atom. They keep me worried with the loss of Swordart and hard farming junglers losing some priority. Let's see how this one shakes out.
Not unsurprisingly, LGD has been the slightly better team early game. SNG has had some bizarre games where they have play passively handshaking teams on going into the late game. LGD has the better GD@15, first turret, rift herald, and first drake. SNG maintains the edge in total drakes, barons, and a considerable vision score advantage. SNG has a better economy as well, leading in CSM and GPM. I think the overall stats fall in SNG's favor, but I have concern about the early game if LGD could get ahead and manage to press their advantage.
We've only had four days on matches on 11.2 in the LPL, and we're still trying to take in all the item changes and their impact on the meta. Udyr is officially in, but it's a no from me, dog. Olaf continues to be a considerable part of the jungle meta, even though we saw his gore drinker healing nerfed. SofM can continue to use that champ's early pressure to contest scuttle vision and enemy camps.
SNG should win this match; they are the more talented team. I doubt LGD can run far enough away early that Huangfeng can't outplay late game and bring it back. The monster objective and vision edge will be too much for LGD to overcome. Being on the blue side will also help SNG first pick for SofM to mitigate any early advantage Kui might find. I do have concerns that either LGD does snowball early or that SNG remains too passive and allow the game to come down to a final team fight on even footing. We saw that in their loss to RNG, and so LGD remains on the table. The late-game should be the better fantasy option, as both of these teams are bottom four in pace, and the deaths per loss for both are around 16.
Top SNG Plays:
- Huanfeng - ADC - second in the league in kill share percentage with 37.5, fourth in kill participation.
- Bin - TOP - Second in KP in the league for top laners, only former lane partner Biubiu sits higher.
- Angel - MID - a mini version of EDG's Scout. Glue guy extraordinary, Azir's growing priority helps him as well.
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6:00 AM: BLG (+255) vs. RNG (-375)
Royal Never Give Up and Edward Gaming sit undefeated and atop the league, all is right with the world. 2016 called, and it wants its headline back. Seriously, though, Royal looks unstoppable draft gapping WE very hard with the flexibility of Xiaohu in the top lane. Combine that with BLG's various draft woes, and even the first pick advantage for BLG might not be enough to help them. Let's see how this shakes out.
As I expected, Royal's weakness is in the early game; as we saw in the match with V5, they were only a fight or two around rift herald from losing that match. BLG has the lead in GD@15, rift herald, first blood, first drake, and curiously first three turrets but not first brick. Royal's superior vision numbers, along with better overall drake and baron percentages, give them the edge late. The full Chinese roster helps them; they have shown smooth shot calling and team fight coordination, two things with which BLG has struggled.
Hard for anyone to say they wouldn't pick Royal here, and I agree. Their strength lies where BLG is weak in drafts, team fights, and shotcalling. BLG has been an all or nothing team in how their wins come in that they get ahead early and smash, or they fail to capitalize on early leads and look lost late. We already saw JDG smash versus BLG this split in a similar matchup, and we know that better teams fighting from behind is fantasy gold. This one is the better fantasy matchup of the day either way you slice it, and so you should look to take your big stacks here.
Top RNG Plays:
- Gala - ADC - he leads the team in KP% and KS%, and I would rate him slightly above HF if you forced me to pick.
- Ming - SUP - top option on the slate.
- Wei - JNG - ditto
- Xiaohu - TOP - I'm sticking with my Xiaohu will get a game at mid sooner rather than late due to matchups or champion skill. That means whenever he is on the slate; he'll be my preferred top laner since he could play mid for one or both games of a match.
Top BLG Plays: if you must
- Meteor - JNG - NO DOI! If they win, it's likely a snowball, and that will always start with him.
- Zeka - MID - flexible in his own right leads the team in KP%.
- Aiming - ADC - has taken the KS% lead back, and if BLG doesn't int the draft, he could save them late.
Summary
- TLDR: SNG 2-1, RNG 2-1, I have concerns for both the favs, and as we saw yesterday, when it seems too easy, it often is. BLG and LGD have very narrow win conditions compared to their opponents, but they do exist.
- The late game is the winner in terms of pace and kills. I will be hard-pressed not to feature a full stack from that side. Maybe the way to get different today is to play heavier on the first game playing for a sweep instead of reaching for underdogs.
- What do I always say? Listen to your heart. Plus, it's two games, so anything goes, really. This is our last week before Lunar New Year break comes for the eastern leagues, and again this weekend will be the first five-game slates overnight since last year so let those VIP reps hear about some big contests when we come back from break.
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