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Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings & FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 1/25/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Well, last night proved to be a rough one. The pricing on T1 and Gen G was too attractive; that and being dead wrong on LNG put the nails in my coffin with the swiftness. LCK is looking more wide open than ever, and the LPL is suddenly the consistent one? Oh boy, that's going to make for a long split.
We're back to the two-game LPL slates for tonight and tomorrow. One exciting match tonight, but tomorrow is looking like a banger already. I'll not get ahead of myself, though. We've got a -1800 fav and a close match, but let's dig in for ourselves and see what we've got.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, January 25th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Edward Gaming (-1800) vs. ThunderTalk (+650)
So, instantly my mind wandered back to week five of the LPL summer split last year when we saw this TT squad (DMO then) 2-0 EDG on a Monday. EDG was 2-3 at the time after some narrow losses to some of the other top squads in the LPL. DMO was 0-6 with every loss but one being a sweep, and somehow they came up with the clean sweep over an EDG squad that was a -750 favorite. Can we expect a similarly stunning result this Monday?
Xiaopeng returns to action for TT today for the first time since they were DMO, and while I'm sure his Nidalee is still legendary, I doubt this swap makes a lot of difference in this matchup. TT was very aggressive in their last match, with WE securing first blood in game one and looking for early dives on the bottom side in round two. WE weathered the storm in game one and turned TT over in game two to hold gold leads at 15 in both. The early game hasn't been EDG's biggest strength, as they have been drafting more scaling champs for Viper in the bottom lane. I wouldn't be surprised to see TT go all-in with an early game comp with something like a Kalista bot like we saw from Gen G in the LCK.
EDG has looked excellent, and Viper seems to be adjusting well to life in the LPL. TT's best chance will be, as I said in the early game, where EDG has looked a bit vulnerable. They still have the edge over TT in first blood, first turret, first three turrets, and gold differential at 15. TT has a better rift herald percentage and a better first drake percentage. EDG retains the edge in total dragons, barons and has a slight edge in vison numbers.
TT haven't been able to convert their herald plays into meaningful gold lead, and that means they're trading too much for the herald. If Viper can stay bot and collect plate gold while EDG harass and delay the herald shorthanded, that will be a big win for EDG. Even if TT all-in the early game composition, it will put them on a timer to end the game before EDG can come online, and I do not like those odds for TT. Bad teams have trouble executing their comps, and any hesitation from TT would likely allow EDG to outscale. This EDG team is much improved from the version lost to DMO last year, mostly since Hope was out with his collapsed lung. I don't see it here from ThunderTalk, but I didn't think they had a shot last year either.
Top EDG Plays:
- Viper - ADC - Leads the team in kill share.
- Meiko - SUP - Primary engage option paces the squad in kill participation.
- Scout - MID - Ultimate glue guy, just behind Meiko in KP% and Viper in KS%
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6:00 AM: JDG (-180) vs. RA (+130)
Both teams come into this match desperate for a win, and both are 1-2 coming off 2-0 losses. JDG's loss was probably a better one if there is such a thin dropping set to undefeated EDG, while RA caught the wrong side of variance losing to BLG. This line is moving in favor of RA, and that's something I'll monitor up until lock. Let's dig in here a bit and try to figure this one out.
JDG won 2-1 last summer over RA when Leyan started in the jungle, and Aix came on in relief. 2020 spring split when Leyan was on IG, JDG dropped 40 kills on 'em in a 2-0. In games versus Leyan last year, Kanavi scored 32.2, 38.2, 17.46 (deathless in a loss), 37.42, and 36.56 DKP. I think it's safe to say that he has his number.
This year, both teams have some rough looking stats, which matches their strength of schedule, with both teams having played three matches with playoff-caliber teams thus far. RA has a slight edge in the stats overall. JDG will have the blue side for this match, and that should give them a small boost. They are also not messing with the lineup, which should continue to improve their continuity and legendary team fighting. RA continues to swap at jungle, and Leyan will pose a massive sub threat if RA loses.
I think JDG will start to come out of their slow start by picking up the win here. I think most people will have the same kind of thoughts on Monday morning. Lock in EDG and then split the second match if you're entering multiple lineups. The sweep is more likely in the first set, but it will be slower and more controlled. This match could get messy in a hurry. Both teams have good kill participation numbers, and it could go all three games. I like this one to be higher scoring than the first match.
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC - first on the team in KP% and KS%.
- LvMao - SUP - right behind his adc in KP%
- Kanavi - JNG - OWNS Leyan third on the team in both kill metrics.
- Zoom - TOP - I mean, Corey's been trying to tell us about him for years, it seems.
Top RA Plays: if you must
- Fofo - MID - best matchup into Yagao as long as they ban or pick Zoey for themselves.
- Iboy - ADC - still adjusting to Fofo taking the lead, but he was on EDG with Scout, so he knows how to work with a carry mid.
- Hang - SUP - has been effective roaming and has a higher kp% than his adc.
- Leyan - JNG - for the truly bold, otherwise see fetch.gif for guidance.
Summary
- TLDR: EDG 2-0, JDG 2-1, You'll have to have an Awesemo amount of entries to contemplate a TT lineup or two, but you'd have massive leverage on the field. Splitting the second set is what most people will be looking at doing with their average amount of lineups.
- I hate game stacks, but with both teams in the second match at nearly 19 deaths per loss, you could see outstanding scores if that series goes the distance. I'll probably use the JDG/RA match for my full stacks to try to get different.
- Tomorrow's slate looks juicier, and while I was looking ahead into the schedule, I noticed something exciting. From week five to week eight, we will have three LPL games on Saturday and Sunday mornings. That's right, five-game slates will make their glorious return on February 6th. Then we're off for two weeks due to the lunar new year break, but after that, we'll have three weeks left of BIG slate action on the weekends.
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