RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 1/12/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Fresh off a lovely little takedown, I'm back in business and looking to do it again. Today's slate promises to be a Chalk fest with both favorites having massive betting lines in their favor. TES and FPX are also among everyone's favorite fantasy plays, so it will be difficult to find ways to get different, but we're going to dig in anyway
LCK will have the earliest start date in their history this year and join us overnight on January 13th. While the LPL will be two games every day of the week, the LCK will have two games five nights a week. So without the truncated schedules due to covid that we saw last year, things should settle into a nice rhythm. LPL alone on Monday and Tuesday AM for two-game slates, and LPL/LCK four-gamers for the rest of the week. I miss the old LPL schedule with three games stacked up on Saturdays and Sundays, but they don't put much stock into what I have to say when scheduling.
The esports team here at Rotoballer is committed to joining you every step of the way through the upcoming season. We're looking at adding some new features for you all to enjoy, but until we get those up and running, you'll have your old faithful story-telling grandpa here for daily research and recommendations.
Happy New Year! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSI'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Tuesday, January 12th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
4:00 AM: OMG(+450) vs. FPX (-800)
OMG let me down versus EDG in the opener, but you could see where EDG was late to some plays. Now OMG gets a chance to face another team with a big-time Korean import that needs integrating into a new system. FPX will debut with Nuguri in the top lane, and, given the struggles of Khan and Gimgoon's last split, this is a move with a lot of hype behind it.
FPX changed the logo and updated the jersey in preparation for Nuguri's arrival. Now they get to roll their new stud out in a great little warm-up match versus OMG. Having this strength in the top lane will open things up for Tian in terms of pathing, and assuming he is healthy will allow him to get back to the form he showed in 2019. It will also take the pressure off LWX and Crisp's bottom lane, giving them more time to farm it out or freeing Tian up to babysit them. DoinB will keep running the show but has hinted at retirement after this year.
Aki showed out in his opener for OMG, putting them in some excellent positions versus some stiff competition in EDG's Jiejie. The rest of the squad was competent and was close to taking EDG down. If there is a way to get over on this FPX squad, it will be through the jungle. Perhaps Aki can take some notes from IG's victory over JDG and use it as a blueprint to pressure Tian.
FPX opened as -1200 favorites for this match, and that has fallen precipitously since then, and OMG showing well against EDG is a small part of that. I liked OMG in that EDG match because of Aki, and if you want to take a shot on a dog on this slate, they might be the play again. Overall I think Doinb and Nuguri will be a deadly combo that will boost Tian back to form, the top half of the map will take the pressure off the bot half, and FPX win this handily. I still have one bullet left in my OMG gun, and I'll probably fire it again here. Lwx hasn't been great, Tian has been hurt, and they still have to incorporate the new guy they haven't been on stage with yet. So there's my devil's advocacy on this on, now back to reality where FPX 2-0 OMG. OMG was the second-highest paced team at Demacia and surrendered 18 and 19 kills in their losses to EDG.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID - Pretty obvious play this, but he's the heart and soul of this team and led them in kill participation and kill share at Demacia
- Crisp - SUP - I expect this team to get back to its winning ways from splits past, reforming its roving death ball of support jungle and mid.
- Tian - JNG - See above, but the final piece of the stack will depend on which way the death ball rolls top or bot?
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6:00 AM: Rogue Warriors (+700) vs. Top Esports (-1800)
TES killed themselves with their aggression versus SNG on opening night, and the only thing I got right in that one was the ownership percentage. RW did their best, but without Zwuji, this team could be heading back to the league's basement. Now, after disappointing showings in their openers, they face off looking to secure their first win.
RW will be outgunned in every lane, and their only real win condition will be Haro. TES will likely look to slow things down a bit to reign themselves in and ensure this victory. As good as Zhou looked at the Demacia cup, he looked equally bad in his LPL debut.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove -ADC - Jackey always tops my list for gpp plays because of his all or nothing nature.
- Knight - MID - More steady than his flashy bot lane partner, he too can take over any game he plays. Dear God, just let him get Lucian.
- Karsa - JNG - Plays a very steady, supportive role, often sacrificing his farm to advance his laners further.
- Zhou - SUP - Should bounce back after a weak opener.
Summary
- TLDR: FPX 2-0 TES 2-0 no surprises there. I'll take a shot on OMG again because I hate money. Other than that, I will be stacking up the first match, hoping that FPX and OMG play to the pace they set in the Demacia Cup. I'll likely lean Nuguri over LWX for that stack as well since I think they may look to lay out the red carpet for the newcomer in his debut.
- Tomorrow I promise things will be much more exciting as the LCK returns to bump us up to four-game slates for the rest of the week. We also won't see these nearly four-digit betting lines either.
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