LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Jeddah

The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Royal Greens Golf and Country Club, located in King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia. Royal Greens Golf and Country Club has won several awards, including Best Golf Course in both Saudi Arabia and the Middle East at the 2021 World Golf Awards. This will be the second consecutive year that Royal Greens Golf and Country Club has hosted a LIV Golf League event. Royal Greens has also hosted the Saudi International since 2019 and the Aaramco Saudi Ladies International since 2020.

Last year Brooks Koepka (-12) defeated Peter Uihlein in the third playoff hole to bring home the LIV Jeddah title. Sergio Garcia and Joaquin Niemann finished one shot back and Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey and Matthew Wolff finished tied for fifth, just two shots behind Koepka and Uihlein. LIV Golfers Abraham Ancer, Harold Varner, Graeme McDowell, and Dustin Johnson have all won the Saudi International played at this course.

The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network in 100% of U.S. markets, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally the event will be broadcasted in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.

LIV Golf Jeddah Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

Royal Greens Golf and Country Club was created by European Golf Design with David Sampson as the lead architect. The construction on the course began in 2008 but was delayed for quite some time during the process and was not completed until 2017. The course features Paspalum Dynasty grass throughout and is neighbored by the Red Sea, which will serve as a frequent backdrop throughout the round. The main defense of the course are the bunkers and water hazards which create risk reward scenarios for the players throughout the round.

This week the course will play as a 7048-yard par-70. Course history has proven that there are a variety of ways to win at Royal Greens. Harold Varner won at -13 in 2022 by taking advantage of the two par 5s, shooting -10 on them for the week. Dustin Johnson won at -19 in 2019 by overpowering the course with his driver and hitting mostly wedges into greens. Abraham Ancer and Graeme McDowell are both shorter hitters and won by hitting a ton of fairways and having a great short game.

With the course being open and right along the Red Sea, wind is always an interesting factor in previewing this event. As of now, the wind is forecasted to be blowing steadily in the teens over all three days of the event. While we are still a few days out and forecasts could change, I believe the wind could be beneficial to more accurate hitters as players will have a more difficult time trying to overpower this course.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Jeddah

Below are the current odds to win as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - Jeddah

This week I am going to spread out my card with three guys who have had proven success playing golf both in the Middle East and at this course specifically. Looking at past course history, it seems like players who have had a good record here tend to return to the top of the leaderboard. I expect some of those usual suspects to appear again this week.

Brooks Koepka +1800

The case for Brooks Koepka is an interesting one. On one hand Koepka is a two-time winner this season; winning the LIV Orlando event and most notably the PGA Championship. When everyone in the field is at their best, Koepka is most likely the best player in the field. When you combine that with the fact that he won this event last season, the +1800 number feels like a bit of a steal.

The argument against Brooks Koepka is that his wife Jenna gave birth to their son recently. In his two LIV starts since becoming a father, the Smash GC captain finished T38 at Bedminster and T24 in Chicago. I’m personally willing to risk the LIV form for the value of this play. Since his two LIV duds, Koepka represented USA in the Ryder Cup. While the team lost, Koepka went 1-1-1, bringing home 1.5 points for Team USA. It’s not earth shattering, but it’s also a semblance of form to lean on moving forward.

We have seen Koepka thrive playing both desert golf and golf in windy conditions. Koepka has won the Waste Management twice and the LIV Jeddah event in 2022. He has excelled in difficult conditions in major championships and began his professional career in Europe, which prepared him for playing in the wind.

Harold Varner III +2800

Harold Varner has had a bit of an inconsistent year in 2023 but did win the LIV DC event in May and has five additional top-11 finishes. In addition, he fits the theme of success in the Middle East. Harold Varner earned his first career victory at this course back in 2022 and it holds a special place in his heart. I have no doubt that Varner enters the week with confidence knowing that he has won here before.

Moving past just course history and form, Varner is a good statistical fit for this event. I mentioned earlier that Varner shot -10 on the par-5s when he won the Saudi International here in 2022. Can he apply the same formula this week? The stats say, yes. Varner ranks first in the LIV Golf League in eagles this year. He is above average in both driving distance and greens in regulation and has been middle of the pack with the putter. If he can put together a decent week on the greens, I look for Varner to be in the mix.

Sergio Garcia +3000

I’ve been riding with Sergio all year, why stop now? It’s been a fairly disappointing stretch as of late for Garcia after nearly winning in Singapore earlier in the year. Still, the track record in the Middle East is just too hard to ignore. He finished T3 in the LIV Jeddah event at this course last year and went 28^th, 24^th, 12^th and 6^th in his previous four appearances here at the Saudi International. The veteran knows this course as well as anybody in the field and I expect that experience to be beneficial this week.

In addition, if the wind does pick up, Sergio is a fantastic wind player. With his creativity and ability to shot shape, I think he’d actually prefer difficult windy conditions. If this event gets ugly, Sergio is a grinder who can find his way toward the top of the board. With the playoffs around the corner and Sergio’s love for match play and team events, I look for him in the Fireballs to start kicking it into gear this week in Saudi Arabia.

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