RADIO
It's the final day of the LPL regular season and the last day of week eight in the LCK, so while the LPL is playing for pride (mostly), the LCK are still in the thick of their playoff race. The LOL season will slow down a bit for playoffs, but the matchups' strength and tension will rise exponentially as we rid ourselves of the LNGs and HLEs of the world.
The Rotoballer Esports Staff, myself included, will be here for you all through playoffs and on into the World Championships at the end of September. While the rest of the sports world is resuming we will continue to provide you with top-notch League of Legends analysis.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Sunday, August 9th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Matches
4:00 AM T1 (-950) vs. Team Dynamics
When we're talking about these playoff scenarios in the various leagues, we must remember how each league sets up their playoff structure and what is exactly on the line. If anyone recalls from the spring, the LCK playoffs is set up in a gauntlet format whereby the first-place team in the regular split is automatically seeded into the finals. Which currently looks like this.
You can see why seeding in the LCK is the most important seeding in the world. Single elimination gauntlet format is a murderers row for teams slotting into the 4th and 5th place. Now that we understand the extent of T1s motivation to move up, along with the fact that they have previously lost to TD, we can conclude there is NO WAY they lose this match. T1 is continuing their tour through the bottom half of the LCK, and TD is just another stop on the way. We saw TD draft and successfully execute a late-game scaling comp vs. AFS last time out, and that will likely be their path to victory versus T1. I don't think they will get it done. Since 10.14 started, T1 has upped its early game quite a bit. They lead TD in that time period in every early stat culminating in a gold differential of 3k gold at 15 between the two teams. I'll take T1 to sweep, and since Clozer joined the roster they have averaged 18.5 kills per match so for once, I'm not as concerned about them paying off their prices as I expect them to come out aggressive early and look to put TD away before they can come online with their scaling comps.
Top T1 Plays
- Teddy - ADC
- Cuzz - JNG
- Effort - SUP
- Canna - TOP
7:00 AM: KT Rolster vs. Gen G (-475)
With the final playoff seeding still up in the air, the top four of the LCK are all in must-win mode. This number is a bit concerning, and I can't see why Gen G isn't pushing -800 in this matchup unless Vegas is concerned about losses to DRX and DWG in the past few weeks, which I am not as those are not losses about which to be concerned. KT is surely not the reason for this line not being higher as they haven't shown much since the upset of DRX (which itself was a fluke). KT should be able to hang around initially as they have upped their early game presence over the past few weeks. They nearly match Gen G in gold differential at fifteen and exceed them in first turret rate over the last two weeks, but Gen G holds the lead in first blood, rift herald, first drake, and first three turrets downed. In the mid-late game, we will see Gen G make their move to put KT away. Gen G's superior objective control and overall vision will allow them to be first to the fights in the around those objectives. I believe that Gen G will complete the sweep here to keep themselves alive for better seeding in the playoffs coming into the final two weeks of LCK summer.
Top Gen G Plays
- Ruler - ADC
- Life - SUP
- Clid - JNG
- Rascal - TOP
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: Rogue Warriors vs. Royal Never Give Up (-305)
Well, here we go again, RNG as favorites in a matchup that means nothing as both teams are out of the playoffs. Rogue Warriors have historically played RNG very close, even dating back to the UZI days. RW beat them this spring and last spring with Zwuji showing up big in both of those matches. I do like the idea of RW winning this match. RNG couldn't get up for their last two matches with playoffs on the line, so I don't know how they will play in this one with no meaning attached to it.
Looking at it straight up, you can see that RNG has struggled with aggressive junglers this year losing to BLG twice, LGD twice, RW once, and splitting with WE. The problem with ever betting RW is that outside of Haro hard carrying a game, and they are awful in the beginning stages of the game. As I pointed out during their recently deceased winning streak, they are always behind in gold at the crucial 15-minute breakpoint. This means a little bit less to them as they have begun to play like a WE or FPX light eschewing the laning phase to try to set up plays across the map. That's a pretty good move for them, especially here where again Wuming will be at a disadvantage in lane versus Xiaohu.
All three LPL matches today could go either way due to playoff implications, team skill, and lack of motivation on one side or the other. Straight up, I think RNG is a proud franchise that won't want to give away a winnable match even if it is meaningless. Xiaohu is 22 and playing some of his best league of legends yet, and he's under contract through 2022, but we could see RNG move on in the offseason for the 19-year-old Cryin. Much like EDG who missed the playoffs for the first time in forever, there will be some difficult questions asked of this team and roster in the off-season. For today though, I think RNG will win this match 2-1; it will be a struggle, but they will get through. Using the win calculator on Oracle's Elixir and only the gold differential between the teams at fifteen minutes, RNG has an 82.9% win probability. That's to say nothing of towers, drakes, or heralds, simply the average gold differential since patch 10.14. I think RW is a live dog, but their upside is limited with the way RNG doesn't like to go down swinging, so if you go there, focus on Haro, Zwuji, and the team slot.
Top RNG Plays:
- Xiaohu - MID
- XLB - JNG
- Gala - ADC
- Ming - SUP
5:00 AM: FunPlus Phoenix (-145) vs. Suning
Break out the tinfoil hat boys because FPX has zero interest in winning this game, but they will move up to the sixth seed and play LGD in round one, you say. If they lose, they stay eighth and will face V5 in round one. That can't be good, but in the first scenario, they face IG in round two, which will end their playoff run. I'd rather take my chances with V5 and SNG their opponents if they finish eighth than LGD and IG who they face if they end sixth. For Suning, a loss puts them fifth and costs them the bye, and a win gives them the bye. From a seeding perspective, this is a walkover for SNG in my book.
Looking at the stats and playstyles, I think that FPX has the edge. SNG is a by the numbers team, a less talented JDG. FPX tends to do well versus structured teams by breaking that down with their roaming style. Plus, FPX has a great history over SNG. Now that I have convinced you FPX is simultaneously winning and losing let's bring it all together and call for the SNG sweep tonight. I really like the playoff scenario angle to this match FPX have slightly better matchups if they lose plus SNG look better if they win. FPX can show nothing because they could rematch SNG in a few weeks during playoffs, and that's easy enough in a loss. I'll take SNG at the pricing discount as well on DK. It's enough to warrant playing both sides, even though FPX is expensive on DK so call it paying up to be contrarian.
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Angel - MID
- Bin - TOP
- SNG Team
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID
- Lwx - ADC
- Gimgoon - TOP
- Tian - JNG
7:00 AM: Invictus (-475) vs. VG
Mercurial Invictus gaming returns tonight in a meaningless matchup with ho-hum Vici gaming. Invictus are locked into the third seed in the LPL, so tonight's outcome means nothing. VG is locked out of the playoffs, so they too are playing only for pride and revenge for Leyan. IG is going back to SW in the bot lane in what seems like a troll move, and perhaps they are looking to try out a few picks or strategies in playoff preparation. They have looked great with Baolan's return to get back to their more aggressive nature, and I am not looking forward to seeing them pick Tahm Kench tonight. I like IG here though I don't know what to expect from them in a match that means nothing. My constant reminder that this is a team that allowed their owner's son to play in a league match just two years ago versus VG. IG WXZ will go down in history as the only undefeated ADC in league history as IG moved Jackeylove to support for that game. I like IG here in what could be a fiesta, but with their motivation unknown, VG could pull the upset.
Top IG Plays:
- Ning - JNG
- Rookie - MID
- Puff - ADC
- theshy - TOP
Top VG Plays:
- Zeka - MID
- Leyan - JNG
- Iboy - ADC
- Cube - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - T1, Gen G, RNG, SNG, and IG win. RNG might have the best upside of the night with RW's sloppy nature, but the IG/VG is such an unknown quantity I can't help but have some interest there.
- Gen G hasn't pulled a clean sweep from KT all year, and that has helped their pricing on DK. I think they are too cheap in a must-win matchup.
- Another great GPP slate tonight with all the unpredictable matches on the LPL side. I like the idea of mixing and matching LPL dogs with LCK favs or just letting the dice fall as they will on some all china matchups.
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