RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL, and LCK slates on 6/20/20. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Back on schedule today, and it seems like we've got one close match and one tight one on each side of the tracks tonight. We'll get a second look at some of these LCK teams to help us form some early summer opinions, and the top of the LPL table should get some separation today.
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today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, June 20th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Afreeca Freecs (-210) vs. Team Dynamics
The undefeated upstarts Team Dynamics will face another stiff test today. The looked very coordinated in that match, and it was only highlighted by how disjointed KT was. The way KT played was atrocious, and they looked like solo q players who had never met before rather than a professional team.
Dynamics carried through their promotion momentum into a solid win over what should be a good team in the league. Here I am though getting ready to tell you that I like AFS. I'll never not love Mystic, and this dude on Aphelios is disgusting, but then again, so is his Ashe, Varus, Kallista, and on and on.
We also saw Rich ruin SoHwan in the top side, but he will not be able to do that too Kiin. Kiin is a guy that we talked about as the best top laner in the world only a few years ago, and if he can rediscover that form AFS can contend at the top of the LCK. I like AFS here to step up and finally defend the honor of the LCK.
I think they sweep, but TD showed they are a coordinated team if nothing else, and they should score well if they do upset. I also imagine that they should be the most popular underdog on the slate so I don't think I'll go there.
Top AFS Plays:
- Mystic - ADC
- Kiin - TOP
- Ben - SUP
- AFS Team
Top TD Plays:
- Rich - TOP
- Beyond - JNG
- GuGer - SUP
- Dynamics Team
7:00 AM: T1 (-160) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
Both teams suffered setbacks in their opening matches, but T1 losing to DRX is understandable. Hanwa, looking utterly lost against SHO Prince, is nearly unforgivable. Viper and Lehends were left out in the cold trying to two versus eight the whole time. This feels fixable and is something that should improve as the split continues, but the reigning league champs come calling on Saturday morning with a chip on their shoulder.
I don't feel like there is much analysis to be given here. We know all about T1, and we have much to learn yet about this version of HLE. I don't think this is a spot I'm very interested in as I have it as a slow, boring affair. T1 sweep incoming, but we've seen them barely score over 60 dkp even in a sweep. Couple that with their pricing across the board, and I will likely fade this spot entirely outside of the team slot.
Top T1 Plays:
- Canna - TOP
- Teddy - ADC
- Effort - SUP
- T1 Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Dominus vs. OMG (-230)
Our bottom two teams clash in a fight to decide who is the worst. Exciting, huh? Well, I've some excellent news for us, the last few games we've seen sparks of life from both sides. OMG has picked up a few games here and there, including the marathon 48-minute win over TES in game one. DMO is looking for a spark in their own right promoting Chleizi and Xubin from their LDL team DMO Youth. Chelizi we saw a lot of last year on VG, he favors Jaxs, but can also play tanks. I think the most significant part of this swap for DMO is in response to both their results and the bot focused meta.
DMO has featured natural since they acquired him, but the top focused playstyle they have shown has not been working, and they remain winless in the summer. Xubin has been cleaning up on the LDL circuit and will get a chance to make his mark in the LPL again. He was previously with Game Talents way back in 2017. It will be interesting to see what happens with the ADCs in this match as neither play Ezreal, but EZ/Yuumi is very meta right now.
I like this change of philosophy from DMO, and I am excited to see if Xubin pulls out something spicy for the matchup we've seen DMO Youth pull out the Sivir/Yuumi combo for extra zoomies. Something like that could throw off the OMG bot combo, which would be looking for a more standard bot lane. I always like to attack instability, though, and this move while generally positive does seem a bit desperate.
I like OMG to win here, and they have adapted a bit in the last few matches. With the changes that DMO has made, I will increase my exposure to them as they are very affordable, and if they are going to play through the bot side more, that should increase their chances of winning. In summary, I think OMG win 2-1, but due to their controlled style, I will take a dog or pass approach for DFS purposes.
Top DMO Plays:
- Xubin - ADC
- Mitsuki - SUP
- Xiaopeng - JNG
7:00 AM: LGD vs. Top Esports
LPL game of the week? Maybe I won't go that far, but it won't be a huge leap to say it might be the fantasy game of the week. Outside of the mid lane matchup, these two teams are more even than you would guess.
Both sides have stud ADCs, underrated top laners, and well-known junglers. With those ADCs, both teams favor that bot side and are close in their drake percentage. We should see a lot of action on that side of the map, which will be the only win-win condition for the side of LGD. If LGD are to have a chance in this match, it's going to have to be a hard carry performance for Kramer.
Jackey can be overly aggressive, and if he miscalculates giving over a big advantage to the LGD bot lane duo, Kramer will be able to take over the game. Mark has been playing up since joining LGD, and he has a nearly 80% kill participation in the summer split. Xiye, too has been much better since rejoining a top tier team. The elephant in the room, however, remains Knight.
He is second only to Rookie in terms of damage dealt for all mids in the LPL, and we all know how hard Rookie has been carrying his drunk friends. Knights friends aren't drunks, though, and I think they will prove too much for the side of LGD in this one. Give me TES in a sweep as LGD has looked sloppy in wins over some subpar opponents. LGD will be a deep gpp type hedge play just in case they are today's LNG.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- 369 - TOP
- Karsa - JNG
Summary
- T1 is too expensive for me, and I'll admit I said the same thing about DRX yesterday. They went out and played a huge three-game series and helped people make some big money. I doubt we see two huge LCK outlier scores in a row.
- I think Dynamics will be popular for an underdog and for good reason as they looked very coordinated on Thursday. AFS are a poor matchup for them with Kiin in the top lane, but were going to have to find some GPP plays somewhere.
- Attack instability or embrace it. DMO is trying something new, and it seems a bit desperate. Hey, they are trying, and OMG aren't a very adaptable team, so they are likely my favorite dog.
- The TES LGD winner should be the top scorer on the slate so I want to get as much of that game as possible. They do mix pretty well with AFS.
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