RADIO
I was done with my write up early yesterday, and so I had all day to second guess myself. A costly error by the time lock rolled around I tinkered my way into some Gen G heavy lines, and I hope you all listened to me and went heavy on T1 for a bit of a contrarian play on a chalky slate.
Today I don't think I can get away from targeting one team more than the other no matter how long I ponder, but who knows if I’ll have the discipline not to tinker too much by tomorrow morning?
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Friday, August 14th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
4:00 AM: KT Rolster (-750) vs. SeolHeaOne Prince
After SBG and AFS losing yesterday, KT fans hope their squad gets a shot at the big boys of the LCK and makes playoffs. They have a match with AFS next week to help them along the way, before their showdown with DWG. First, they can't overlook this entirely winnable match versus the bottom team in the SeolHeaOne Prince league. I've gone on the last two days about the strength of the top four teams in the league versus the bottom six, and there is another tier forming. It's between the middle three and the bottom three, and maybe that's only the bottom two as TD have shown some life in their debut split in the league.
SP is our first bottom tier team in play today as they try to stay engaged instead of just playing out the string. With franchising coming to the LCK next split, this team might not be here, but the players, coaches, and analysts will be trying to show that they are deserving of a spot in the next iteration of the LCK. Unfortunately for SP, they face an uphill battle similar to that of fellow cellar-dweller HLE in the second game. Both of today's dogs have statistical disadvantages across the board, and often by significant margins. We're talking 10-15-20%, and only the first blood percentage is a sub 10% advantage for KT. One bonus of how bad SP has been is that I don't even have to talk about how mediocre KT has been this split. They only started to find some momentum with Malrang starting in the jungle over Bono.
Even if they change their mind, they are the early game, and we'll be able to pivot, although I doubt they mess with the most recent configuration of Smeb - Malrang - Ucal - Aiming - Tusin. With SP being sooooooooo bad you can't help but stack up this KT squad as much as possible.
Top KT Plays:
- Aiming - ADC
- Tusin - SUP
- Ucal - MID
- Smeb - TOP
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7:00 AM: DRX (-2000) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
I feel like I can just cut and paste my takes from yesterday's slate about the top four of the LCK into today's article. As soon as I rant on about a thousand words about how the cream or the LCK's crop is unbeatable, Gen G promptly drops a game to SBG. Much like yesterday, we see DRX with a significant advantage in every relevant statistical category outside of a slight vision advantage for the side of HLE. You will often see these better teams with lower vision numbers because they spend a lot of time ahead with their waves pushed forward, thus granting them free extra vision that warding numbers won't show. So it's not something I'm concerned about in this match.
The best chance that HLE has in this one is to try to hyper-scale, and I'm sure we'll see more Caitlyn priority in the draft for them. They will try to wait out DRX and get to five or six items onto Viper, but the problem is that DRX is excellent early. They aren't an overactive early team, but they have strong lanes and play around that well. DRX should be up gold early by a wide margin, and that will be the death knell for the late game plans of HLE. DRX will have side selection for this match and have an 80% win rate on the blue side. Blue side teams with a 2600 gold lead (the combined average of these two teams at 15) and nothing else have an 81.6% implied win rate per the calculator on Oracle's Elixir. We saw it yesterday with Gen G, the strength of these top four teams relative to the rest of the league is nearly untouchable as SBG out drafted GG and still were outmuscled by the more talented team. I doubt we even see this one in question as DRX cruise to an easy sweep.
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG
- Keria - SUP
- Doran - TOP
- Deft - ADC
Summary
- TLDR - Another chalky two gamer in the LCK with the favorites KT and DRX rolling over the two worst teams in the league. Not much hope for an upset on either side.
- Even though I didn't take my advice yesterday about rolling out some heavy T1 lineups (boy, did I pay for it), today I'm going to stick to the plan and roll heavy KT. We ave to capitalize on the headless chicken style of gameplay SP employ. DRX average a full kill more per win, but SP gives over three more deaths per loss. That should more than make up the difference.
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