RADIO
Ugly, ugly league of legends was played last night in the LCK. T1 ran the same trashy draft back into DRX three times, and it didn't work out. I wouldn't be surprised to see the third jungler Oner make his debut next time out as the gap was punished by Pyosik quite hard. KT did take advantage of Fredit, but they did so with the backup mid laner and not the backup adc as many thought they might. Tough night as I was all in on T1, and they stank. I am jumping back in for some more chalky action tonight.
Even though the LCK continues to defy the odds, quite literally, by continued chalk fails, today is the day. Both favorites can't lose, right? Nongshim faces Gen G in the opener, showcasing yet another week four rematch. Damwon gets HLE in the late game, so we won't have to sweat lineups for once. Let's get to it.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, February 20th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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3:00 AM: Nongshim RedForce (+370) vs. Gen G (-600)
Nongshim took HLE to the limit on Thursday, and things will only get more difficult for them today with Gen G on the plate. Gen G wiped the floor with AFS in a very clean 2-0 that was almost too easy for their dfs owners. Second place versus eighth should be comfortable, but again as we have learned, this split nothing is for sure, or is it?
Gen G should dominate this matchup on both ends of the court, so to speak. Gen have the edge early and late-game. Gen G has EVERY statistical advantage save one; Nongshim's scrappy nature gives them the DPM edge. Kellin will have another chance at revenge in this one, but I doubt he gets it. The only advantage you can realistically find for NSRF here is Peanut in the jungle. All the other lanes swing HEAVILY in favor of Gen G.
NSRF will have the blue side, and so they will have the first pick, which can help Peanut on his way with a power pick in the jungle matchup. Most people fail to realize that good teams on the red side have the real advantage in their ability to counter-pick. Weaker orgs aren't capable of taking advantage of that edge, and that's why the blue side counted as an edge when inferior teams face off. That won't be the case here, Peanut can secure a priority pick in the jungle, but if he finds all three lanes getting pushed in, he won't have much ability to invade, gank, or otherwise translate his lead anywhere on the map.
Gen G should win handily, and they are looking at some big kill numbers, with Nongshim giving up 19 deaths in their losses. The trouble is, as a team, they only average 1.8 assists per kill this split. That's frighteningly low, and as such, their fantasy points are relatively concentrated in just a few players, so we must choose wisely.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC - down to a 27% kill share this split even Ruler is getting a bit dicey.
- Rascal - TOP - third in KS% it's the usual suspects here for Gen G.
- Clid - JNG - yeah, I know I just told you Peanut has the edge, but Clid leads the team in KP% by a wide margin and is second in KS%.
- Gen G - TEAM - again, EVERY STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE, the perfect game is on the table.
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6:00 AM: HLE (+275) vs. DWG (-425)
HLE is hot garbage, and we saw that on full display versus Nongshim. I have been vocal about my dislike of this team, mainly due to them only having the one path to success - Chovy. The current bot/jungle focused meta is still evolving through patch 11.3, and even with jungle priority lessened, we still see the bot lane at the top of the list. Mid lane isn't as dominant right now, and that hurts HLE. DWG is still as strong as ever, even though they dropped game one in spectacular fashion versus KT. That was another game where they had no business being alive past 30 minutes, but with their superior map movements, they were nearly able to scrape out a win.
You may remember me trashing HLE earlier in the week then saying I fully expect them to upend DWG here because of LCK. Now I have to tell you how that's possible. HLE is one of the few teams that are in the ballpark with DWG in terms of economy. Their creep scores and gold generation per minute should allow them to keep up early. DWG had some iffy starts versus KT. Game two's Kalista draft started very well, but as always, with Kalista, you're on a timer, and a greedy drake fight almost led to the loss.
Don't get me wrong, as again, HLE were in serious danger of losing earlier in the week. Deft had some big-time blunders that made game two way closer than it needed to be. DWG will have the edge in nearly every statistical category as is befitting their status as defending champs. I'm just playing devil's advocate with the HLE noise, and I would have liked that angle much better if DWG had cruised on Wednesday. I'd be more concerned about a letdown.
The kill numbers for HLE look very good; that's the other main argument in their favor. With DWG giving up 18 deaths in their losses and Hanwa averaging nearly 20 kills in their wins, an HLE upset could be very fantasy-friendly. If DWG wins as expected, they, too, will be looking good. HLE averages 17 deaths per loss, and DWG has a better team KP% than does Gen G. I'll stick with the champs here for a 2-1 win.
Top DWG Plays:
- Showmaker - MID - leads the team in KP% and is second in KS%.
- Ghost - ADC - leads in KS%.
- Beryl - SUP - second in KP%
- Canyon - JNG - third in both kill metrics.
Top HLE Plays:
- Deft - ADC - leads the team in KS% will need a pop-off performance for HLE to win.
- Vsta - SUP - third in KP%
- Chovy - MID - great player, not a great matchup.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 2-0, DWG 2-1. We've seen all week that what should happen doesn't, so I tried to paint a picture for HLE to win. I couldn't stomach the idea of a Nongshim win, but luckily neither can anyone else. They should be sub-ten percent owned if you're looking to mess around.
- The smarter route, as usual, will be to mix up your favorites stacking. Fade Canyon, Rascal, or Ruler mix it up a bit while still sticking to the faves. The other most likely option here is building with a "punt" play from the side of HLE or (Gulp) NSRF to make bigger and better things fit.
- The other thing we've learned this week is to keep it light and have some fun out there with these two gamers swinging wildly away from expectations. Good luck everyone!
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