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Sure, coming up with actual projections and rankings for your fantasy drafts can be exciting and extremely helpful. Do you know what's even more exciting and probably less helpful? Hot takes and bold predictions. There is nothing quite like calling your shot on a player and being correct (or horribly, horribly wrong).
The five not-so-popular opinions below detail what I believe is possible for their subjects. While all of these predictions are supported by data and analysis, I don't necessarily think any of them indicate the player's most likely outcome. I haven't drafted based on these claims and I don't suggest you do either.
With just a few days left until the start of the regular season, here are my bold fantasy football predictions for 2022.
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Marquise Brown Finishes As A Top-10 WR
We all know that DeAndre Hopkins is going to miss the first six weeks of the upcoming season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy. Still, he is being drafted in the middle of the eighth round, just two rounds after Marquise Brown.
Reading between the lines, it seems that fantasy managers believe Hollywood will be great for the first six weeks, but fully expect Hopkins to be quarterback Kyler Murray’s primary target upon his return in Week 7. I’m not convinced.
Last season, Murray targeted Hopkins 6.9 times per game when he played at least 70% of snaps. Marquise Brown, on the other hand, saw nine targets per game in the 11 he played with Lamar Jackson. For some reason though, Brown is commonly perceived as a pure deep threat while Hopkins has always been considered a target hog.
In 2020, Hopkins and Murray were a lethal combo. Hopkins amassed 160 targets in 16 games and finished as the WR5 in half-PPR scoring. Unfortunately, he only suited up for 10 games in 2021 and saw a noticeable decline in both volume and production as he failed to post a single 100-yard game. After a down season hampered by injury, it’s fair to question whether he can return to elite form in his age 30 season.
Brown, as a Baltimore Raven, finished as the WR23 last season despite missing one game and catching passes from backup Tyler Huntley in four others. He earned a 26.7% team target share which ranked 12th amongst all wide receivers. The belief that Hollywood is a deep threat is also correct, as he finished eighth in deep targets last year.
Hollywood had by far his most prolific season as a pro in 2021, but he certainly did not reach the ceiling that he potentially could this year in Arizona. Although he was eighth in deep targets, he was also sixth in unrealized air yards. Lamar Jackson has definitely made leaps as a passer in his three seasons as the Ravens’ starter, but he is not nearly as precise with his deep balls as Kyler Murray is. He is also far less willing to throw them.
Murray's 5.1 deep ball attempts per game last season tied him with Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins for second most in the league. He also completed 50% of these attempts, which bested all of his peers.
Marquise Brown in 2021:
* 6th most targets of 20+ yards (30)
* Just 5 catches on those 30 targets (16.7% catch rate)Kyler Murray in 2021:
* T-1st in 20+ yard completions
* 1st in deep ball completion rateCould Kyler unlocked Brown's true #FantasyFootball upside? 🚀🚀 pic.twitter.com/gv6HgQXUOg
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 11, 2022
What have we learned? Hollywood is incredible as a downfield threat, and Kyler loves to throw the long ball (efficiently, too). Sounds like a match made in heaven, or in Oklahoma, where the two already showcased how electric they can be as a duo in 2018. On top of all of this, the overall passing volume has been far greater in Arizona than in Baltimore for each of the past three seasons.
With Brown already proving that he can command a true WR1 target share, the sky is the limit in a pass-friendly environment.
Dalton Schultz Is As A Top-Three TE
How bold can a prediction be if it's happened before? Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz came out of nowhere last season and posted 78 receptions, 808 yards, and eight touchdowns, finishing as the TE3 in half-PPR scoring. Still, he is being drafted this year as the TE6 despite his glaring opportunity to see even more targets in 2022.
Schultz saw the sixth-most targets amongst tight ends last season with 104. This amount trailed only CeeDee Lamb on the Cowboys and tied with Amari Cooper. In each of the past two seasons, Dallas has been top-five in pass attempts per game and they led the league in points scored in 2021. This should continue to be a high-flying offense led by Dak Prescott and Schultz will look to benefit from the 181 vacated targets left behind by Cooper, Cedrick Wilson, and Malik Turner.
Amari Cooper leaves behind 17% of the Dallas Cowboys team targets.
If Dalton Schultz can capitalize on 20% of those targets, one more per game, he’ll be a 120-target tight end.
Imagine finding that volume at tight end in the sixth round.
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) June 18, 2022
The Cowboys added wide receiver Jalen Tolbert in the 2022 NFL Draft and signed James Washington in free agency. Washington (foot), however, will miss at least the first four weeks of the season. Michael Gallup (knee) has a solid argument to be the secondary target behind Lamb, but despite an excellent recovery from an ACL tear, he is not expected to be ready to play in Week 1.
Expect Prescott to lean heavily on Schultz and Lamb to begin the season, as they are the only two healthy pass-catchers on the roster (outside of the running backs) to have receiving touchdowns in their careers.
On a per-game basis, Schultz was out-targeted by George Kittle and Darren Waller in 2021. Both of these players could see a diminished opportunity this year. Trey Lance will take over as the starting quarterback in San Francisco and will likely pass less and run more than Jimmy Garoppolo. Las Vegas traded for Derek Carr's collegiate teammate Davante Adams, who has seen over 10 targets per game in four straight seasons.
The Cowboys also outscored both the 49ers and Raiders by over 100 points last season, so projecting them to once again be the best offense of the bunch is more than reasonable. The case has been made for Schultz to outproduce Kittle and Waller, who are both being selected ahead of him in fantasy drafts. But what about second-year sensation Kyle Pitts?
Pitts, who is currently being drafted as the TE3, saw six more targets than Schultz in 2021 but failed to surpass him in receptions or touchdowns. Of course, Pitts is the far superior athlete and could win out on talent alone.
Betting on a Marcus Mariota-led Falcons offense to be successful though, is far from a sure thing. If Atlanta struggles to score, Pitts' upside will be capped, and it would not be the least bit shocking to see Schultz outpace him in fantasy points once again.
Darrell Henderson Jr. Outscores Cam Akers In All Formats
In 2022 fantasy drafts, Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson Jr. is a 10th-round selection. His teammate, Cam Akers, has seen a decline in ADP over the past few weeks, but still goes off the board about six rounds earlier. In my opinion, the gap should not be nearly this large.
Through the first 12 weeks of last season, Henderson was the RB12 overall in half-PPR scoring. He battled injuries throughout the team's final six games and only appeared in two. Akers, who missed the entirety of the regular season due to a ruptured Achilles, surprisingly returned for the Rams' Super Bowl run. Although he saw the bulk of the running back touches in the playoffs, he was extremely inefficient and appeared to lack explosiveness.
Yes, Akers was less than six months removed from surgery, but even after a full year of recovery, history is not on his side. D'Onta Foreman, who tore his Achilles four years prior, had his most productive season in 2021 when Derrick Henry went down in Tennessee. This is the lone success story for NFL running backs with this injury.
Even if Akers can completely return to form, Rams head coach Sean McVay has made it pretty clear that he plans to deploy Henderson and Akers in a 50-50 timeshare.
“Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson, the Rams’ two most veteran running backs, are splitting first-team snaps pretty evenly so far. … ‘I look at it as we’ve got two starting backs,’ McVay said.” https://t.co/xqVSqk2o1R https://t.co/aOL13vDxsR
— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) August 2, 2022
Both players have been listed as co-starters on depth charts throughout the preseason. Again, if Akers is 100%, it is fair to bet on talent as he was the more highly-regarded prospect. But let's not forget that Henderson was a third-round NFL draft pick in 2019, selected within 20 spots of where Akers was taken a year later.
Both are good running backs on a great offense, but one has proven more at the professional level and is not coming back from what has been referred to as a "death sentence" for running backs. Henderson has struggled with injuries himself, but none to the extent of a torn Achilles. If Akers has even regressed slightly from the player he was as a rookie, Henderson will have a great shot to outproduce him this season.
Justin Fields Becomes A Top-10 Fantasy QB
The keyword in this title is obviously fantasy. Second-year Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields could certainly struggle to lead the team to wins on an offense with so few weapons. It simply just doesn't matter.
Last season, Fields started a total of 10 games as a rookie and left one early due to injury. Out of the nine games he started and finished, Fields was a top-10 fantasy quarterback four times, even cracking the top five once.
He has immense rushing upside, which has always been a cheat code for fantasy football. In those same nine starts, Fields averaged over 40 rushing yards per game. Only three quarterbacks in the league averaged 40 or more rushing yards per game last season: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen.
Dating back to 2011, 21 of 23 quarterbacks that started in at least 15 games and accumulated 500 or more rushing yards on the season finished as top-10 fantasy options. If Fields suits up for all 17 weeks, it would require less than 30 rushing yards per game for him to meet these criteria.
The case against Justin Fields is normally based on the Bears' poor offensive line and their lack of receiving threats. The offensive line will be an issue, but according to Pro Football Focus, it was already a bottom-half unit last season. More pressure on Fields will probably result in more rushing attempts, so this could actually work to his benefit as it pertains to fantasy.
As for the lack of surrounding talent, this also remains a constant from 2021. The Bears hardly tried to replace Allen Robinson in his departure to Los Angeles, but Robinson was essentially non-existent last year anyway. Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and David Montgomery will continue to be the focal points of Chicago's offense, which is now led by head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.
Chicago cleaned house with the coaching staff this offseason, parting ways with former head coach Matt Nagy and former offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Nagy, if you recall, had a hard time committing to Fields or Andy Dalton as the starter last season. The new staff, on the other hand, has had the entire summer to gameplan and scheme an offense around the young quarterback.
It's only preseason, of course, but we got a little taste of what Fields could look like in Getsy's system in the Bears' preseason finale.
I went to bed last night and had dreams about this throw. Luke Getsy seems like he's just what the doc ordered for Justin Fields. #Bears https://t.co/yCLHZHbYcx
— Jarrett Payton (@paytonsun) August 28, 2022
Fields completed 14 of his 16 passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns in one half of turnover-free football. If Fields can be this successful in the passing game, his ceiling would be truly elite. He already possesses a floor with his rushing capabilities, making him an excellent fantasy QB2 selection with league-winning upside.
Chase Edmonds Finishes As A Fantasy RB1
The Miami Dolphins offense underwent a plethora of changes this offseason. First, they hired Mike McDaniel to become the head coach. Next, they signed running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert in free agency. Then, they topped it off by trading for superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
The front office is doing everything in its power to give quarterback Tua Tagovailoa all the tools he needs to succeed. Fantasy managers believe Tagovailoa can do enough to propel Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as both are being selected as top-20 receivers in half-PPR scoring. The running backs, however, have not instilled the same confidence.
In addition to Edmonds and Mostert, running backs Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed remain on the roster, while recent signee Sony Michel was a surprise cut. On the surface, this may seem like an ambiguous running back room that could be utilized in a full-blown committee. But money talks, and so does talent.
On day one of the legal tampering period before free agency, Edmonds signed with Miami on a two-year, $12.6 million deal with $6.1 million guaranteed. With how quickly this signing occurred, it's obvious that Edmonds was a top target for the Dolphins. He will earn more money this year than all other Dolphins' backs combined, making their intentions to use him as a key piece of the offense even more transparent.
In the nine games in which Edmonds played at least 50% of snaps for the Cardinals last year, he averaged 5.3 targets and 11.6 carries. 5.3 targets per game would have been good for fifth highest in the league amongst running backs, just above Austin Ekeler and right below Najee Harris.
Still, less than 12 carries per game is not typically what we look for in a quality fantasy running back. There are exceptions to this rule, though. Aaron Jones was the RB12 last season despite seeing 11.4 carries per game. He also saw fewer targets per game than Edmonds and was less efficient on his touches.
Chase Edmonds was the 1st RB signed in free agency.
This means the Dolphins prioritized getting him.
He's considered the RB1 in Miami...
And he's Top-5 in RB production per touch since 2019.
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) September 3, 2022
It's important to remember that Edmonds was splitting carries with James Conner in 2021 as well. I'm not projecting Edmonds to be a workhorse by any means, but Mostert just turned 30 years old and has finished just five games over the past two seasons. Edmonds could easily see over 12 carries per game in 2022 and should see the vast majority of targets out of the backfield.
If Tua and the Dolphins can flourish under McDaniel, Edmonds will be one of the best values in fantasy drafts as a seventh-round selection and has a clear path to a top-12 positional finish.
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