Jon Anderson's Shortstop Tiered Rankings and Projections

2 years ago by Jon Anderson

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We are moving on to shortstop today in the tiered fantasy baseball rankings and projections series! Check out the rest of what I've completed so far at the links below!

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The shortstop position has become quite deep for fantasy purposes over the last several years. In the older times, we would typically find a bunch of defensive specialists that were quite light-hitting at the plate. Nowadays though, that's just not the case. The best infielders with the leather are quite often the best at the dish as well. Let's dive in and check on the position from a high level.

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Tier One

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Fernando Tatis Jr.	1	1.9	614	111	43	104	26	.285
Trea Turner	2	1.8	651	109	25	85	32	.303
Bo Bichette	3	5.3	645	102	28	91	21	.292

Three first-rounders here, and all three are in the top half of the first round as well. The fantasy upside on Tatis is unmatched here, but the questions about his shoulder have caused Trea Turner to be taken ahead of quite more often than not. If Tatis is healthy, he will likely crush Turner's value just because he has much more raw power, which is why I'm taking him ahead of Trea and hoping that shoulder holds up.

It might seem a little premature to have Bichette in the top tier this early on in his career, but what we saw last year from him was so impressive that it's justified. He's a fine consolation prize in the first round - not many players will give you 25+ homers, 20+ steals, and a .290+ batting average.

Tier Two

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Trevor Story	4	39	633	90	27	81	22	.254
Marcus Semien	5	33	665	96	31	85	11	.259
Corey Seager	6	76	589	86	26	85	2	.291
Wander Franco	7	55	622	89	18	80	8	.293
Francisco Lindor	8	50	647	90	26	82	14	.255
Tim Anderson	9	35	623	97	21	70	19	.293
Xander Bogaerts	10	44	639	94	26	88	6	.285

There's a steep drop down to Tier Two here, but this is a large group of players. These are mostly all solid contributors across the board, but you can poke slight holes in every name here.

I am well ahead of the field on Seager as you can see, so I imagine ending up with quite a bit of him on my teams this year. Very few hitters possess the elite contact and power combination that he does, which is why I can justify having him here despite the really low steals projection.

The upside crown would have to go with Franco, but he's also probably the most likely name here to really underwhelm for fantasy this year. Just like that, the top-10 shortstops are off the board - so you should really consider adding one of these names to your team if you go elsewhere in the first round.

Tier Three

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Jorge Polanco	11	79	639	90	26	82	9	.266
Javier Baez	12	64	590	80	28	84	15	.253
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	13	81	555	85	21	63	23	.241

Here we have Polanco, who is solid in everything without being super great at anything, and then Baez/Chisholm, who should both contribute well in HR+SB, but will really crush your team's batting average (most likely). Polanco for safety, Baez for the best raw HR+SB projection, and Jazz for the upside.

Tier Four

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Carlos Correa	14	94	616	84	26	86	1	.274
Willy Adames	15	132	593	77	25	73	6	.255
Jake Cronenworth	16	116	602	81	17	71	6	.273
Dansby Swanson	17	125	634	82	25	77	10	.251

We are really giving up something now. None of these players project to be positive steals contributors, and there really aren't any numbers mentioned above that jump off the page. Correa's landing spot in free agency will make a difference on his projection, so depending on that, we may have to move him up or down a bit. The upside pick is Adames, and he's one of my favorite SS targets overall after seeing what he did after leaving the Rays last year (20 homers, four steals, .285 average in 413 PA).

Cronenworth can be a really nice batting average and runs contributor, but he'll bring you down in power. Swanson is the opposite, giving you some homers and RBI but not much else. All of these names are start-worthy, though.

Tier Five

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Brandon Crawford	18	203	531	66	17	68	5	.259
Gleyber Torres	19	148	579	74	21	69	12	.263
Chris Taylor	20	134	552	77	19	69	10	.254

The field really is not believing in the Brandon Crawford 2021 breakout. At the age of 35, that is perfectly understandable, but man he was good at the plate last year (11.5% Brl% and a 19% K%). I am high on him again for 2022. Torres is also a pretty interesting name after he swiped 14 bases last year and lowered the strikeout rate down to 20%. If he keeps those numbers up while improving in homers (and he has the raw power and home stadium to do it), he will be a steal this late in the draft.

Tier Six

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Luis Urias	21	151	547	68	19	65	5	.251
Brendan Rodgers	22	154	528	65	18	66	2	.278
Amed Rosario	23	163	580	72	13	61	15	.279
Eugenio Suarez	24	193	551	73	32	82	1	.229

I actually like all of these names for what they can do. Urias showed off a nice power/contact combination last year in his own right, Rodgers also made a big stride in strikeout rate and power numbers, and then Rosario and Suarez are strong late options for their respective categories (SB for Rosario, HR/RBI for Suarez).

I really like having one or two of these four names in my middle infield spot (or corner in the case of Urias and Suarez) or bench.

Tier Seven

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Josh Rojas	25	225	522	64	10	49	10	.248
Oneil Cruz	26	220	472	60	17	59	11	.261
Gavin Lux	27	226	422	57	12	50	5	.259

This is the "upside" tier, although chances are you get at least one big-time bust out of the group this year too (if not two or three!). Rojas has the speed to steal tons of bases, the raw power on Cruz is immense, and Lux is a former top prospect who should get a little bit more playing time this year.

I wouldn't be surprised if any of these three names really bust out this year, but they are all much too risky to depend heavily on.

Tier Eight

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Andres Gimenez	28	271	419	51	12	41	18	.245
Jonathan Villar	29	292	451	56	13	43	16	.247
Gio Urshela	30	261	485	54	15	59	1	.265
Nicky Lopez	31	241	540	63	3	42	15	.265

We don't have much going for us here. Lopez is the only one with a confident playing time projection, and you're not drafting Gimenez or Villar for anything but the steals. The upside play is Gimenez, and the safety is Lopez - although I really don't want Nicky Lopez.

My Shortstop Strategy

I want to start my team with Fernando Tatis or Trea Turner. The steals and batting average you get from them is just so valuable given how light the league is on those two categories right now. Unfortunately, they require a top-two pick to grab most of the time. If I don't get one of them, I'm looking to get Corey Seager and/or Willy Adames.

It's very important to note that this is the most steals-heavy position:

ATC Projections Aggregated by Position (Top 200 Hitters by @TheNFBC ADP) pic.twitter.com/fjBMvTS53A
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) February 7, 2022

It's a good idea (although not a necessary one) to prioritize steals here. That means looking at a name like Story or Chisholm earlier on if missing on the top tier, and then grabbing maybe an Amed Rosario late for steals assurance.

All of this said, you will find plenty of start-worthy options at shortstop, so it's not exactly a position to get stressed out about early on.

Thanks for stopping by again, we'll be back soon with more tiered rankings!

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