Javonte Williams Fantasy Football Outlook – Are You In or Out?

Rob takes a deep dive into Javonte Williams’s fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023. Is he worth his current draft price in 2023 or does Williams have bust potential?

Some fantasy managers have Javonte Williams completely off of their draft boards due to his significant knee injury. The injury wasn't your typical torn ACL, which brings with it some of its own concerns. Williams tore his ACL, LCL, and PLC. This multi-ligament injury creates plenty of reasons for fantasy managers to be skeptical. This is especially true after J.K. Dobbins struggled mightily in 2022 in his return from a similar, multi-ligament injury, which fantasy managers now associate with Williams.

However, recent reports indicate Williams is much further along than Dobbins had been at this time in his recovery. Not only that, but Williams has not suffered any of the setbacks that Dobbins experienced. While there are plenty of reasons to be cautious, there's also no guarantee Williams struggles with his injury as Dobbins did. We also need to recognize the changes Denver made this offseason. The offensive line additions are huge, but they pale in comparison to the hires of head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi.  There is a lot to be excited about Williams’ fantasy value, but is it worth the risk? Let’s discuss this.

You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:

• Travis Etienne: In or Out Series Edition
• J.K. Dobbins: In or Out Series Edition
• Kyle Pitts: In or Out Series Edition
• George Pickens: In or Out Series Edition
• D.J. Moore: In or Out Series Edition
• Michael Pittman Jr.: In or Out Series Edition
• Aaron Jones: In or Out Series Edition
• Nick Chubb: In or Out Series Edition

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Injury-Risk

Javonte Williams tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL on October 2, 2022. The surgery is believed to have occurred at the end of October. While a torn ACL recovery is typically given a 9–12 month timetable, athletes have been returning on the shorter side in recent years. Based on the estimated time of surgery for Williams to Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, he’ll have had 320 days to recover or roughly 10.7 months. Considering there have been no setbacks, it’s completely possible, maybe even probable, he’s active for Week 1.

“I expect (Javonte) Williams to be fully ready by Week 1 of the regular season” https://t.co/j0kVHY6OJf

— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) June 19, 2023

The thing is all players outside of the first three rounds come with risk in some form. Maybe it’s health. Maybe it’s an overcrowded depth chart. Maybe it’s coaching or maybe they’re in a great situation but have never displayed the talent to take advantage. The reality is, anyone in the range of Williams has some sort of risk. It’s why they’re not in the first three rounds. Williams's risk is his health, but reports coming in have been incredibly positive.

Javonte Williams -
Currently ~7 months 9 days out.
Great sign he’s loading, decelerating & jump cutting off his right leg, then with noted comfortability in full extension/accelerating off of the right leg upon reestablishing his base.
Another (+) note in the next comment.. https://t.co/daoizG2nzp pic.twitter.com/pEcrTp9ISE

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) June 1, 2023

We can maintain our skepticism while also being open to the fact that Williams just doesn’t care about skepticism. Realistically, fantasy managers need to be prepared for the fact that Williams is unlikely to take on a big role early in the season. The team will undoubtedly take it slow with him, but that is already baked into the price tag. If that risk didn’t exist, considering what Denver’s done in the offseason, ask yourself — where would Williams be going? Would he be a top-15 RB? Top-12? Top-10? Don’t discount the injury risk twice because, at RB29, it’s already accounted for and then some.

Note on Javonte Williams -

We keep using the JK Dobbins timeline as a measure. I’ve personally stopped doing this because JW has had zero indications of scarring, zero reports of secondary surgery, & appears to be full ROM via video.
He’s 4 months ahead of JK’s timeline.

If you… https://t.co/xZaCRBQP5N

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) June 21, 2023

Each injury and each recovery is different. Williams's recovery has been completely and utterly different than Dobbins, so we need to stop using that as a comparison. It’s not. Yes, they had a similar injury, but their recoveries have been two totally different stories.

Offensive Line Upgrades

This offseason, Denver signed former 49er Mike McGlinchey and former Raven Ben Powers. These two additions are expected to start at right tackle and left guard, respectively. The team will also welcome back Garrett Boles, who only played in five games last season. The remaining two starting spots will be manned by Lloyd Cushenberry II and Quinn Meinerz. Overall, the line looks like a significant strength for the team.

Powers didn’t give up a single sack last year for the Ravens and allowed just one quarterback hit. He’s more known for his pass-blocking prowess than his run-blocking, but regardless, he still represents a solid addition to the front five. McGlinchey has been a solid contributor in San Francisco for the last five years. He registered a 73.3 run-blocking grade from PFF last year, his third season with a score higher than 70.

PFF ranks the Broncos’ offensive line as the 11th-best unit heading into the 2023 season and they’re not the only ones who are high on this group. Pro Football Network also has the Denver offensive line ranked 11th while The Game Day has them 13th, and FTN Fantasy has them ranked 12th. A team’s offensive line is pivotal to an NFL’s team success running the football and the Broncos’ put a huge emphasis on improving this unit. By all accounts, it appears the mission was successful.

The Sean Payton Effect

Ever since becoming the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, there has been no one better at producing elite fantasy football running backs than Sean Payton. The results speak for themselves.

Denver Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton

Team Year By Year Fantasy Value Vs. NFL League Average (0.5 PPR - RB, WR, TE)

2000-2002: New York #Giants OC
2006-2021: New Orleans #Saints HC
Present: Denver #Broncos HC pic.twitter.com/BW5b5hnsMI

— Eli G (@3li_handles) May 31, 2023

He has been a head coach for 15 seasons. In seven of those seasons, his running back group scored 100 more half-PPR points than the league average. His running backs scored at least 50 half-PPR points more than the league average in 12 out of 15 seasons and just once, in 2021, they did have fewer than the league average. You could argue, “But wait, that’s as a group. What about the No. 1 guy, how’s he done?” And to that, I’d show you this…

Payton has had 12 running backs finish in the top-15 in half-PPR PPG average in 15 years. Five times one of his running backs has finished in the top five. Combine all of that with Joe Lombardi who worked under Payton from 2007–2013 and again from 2016–2020. He was the offensive coordinator in Detroit in 2014 and 2015 and the offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2021 and 2022. Joique Bell finished as the RB16 with a 12.2 half-PPR PPG average in 2013 and who can forget about Austin Ekeler these past two seasons? He finished as the RB1 (19.5) and RB3 (8) in 2022 and 2021, respectively.

The duo of Payton and Lombardi is one of the very best coaching combinations for fantasy running backs or any position for that matter. A lot of this success is due to their running back’s involvement in the passing game. Everywhere these coaches have gone, this position has played a pivotal part in their passing attack.

New Orleans RB target share under Sean Payton (last 5 seasons).

2021: 27.60% (1st)
2020: 27.3% (2nd)
2019: 27.4% (5th)
2018: 28% (2nd)
2017: 34% (1st)

Per @FTNData pic.twitter.com/BPNtEqppNe

— Kevin Adams (@MagicSportsGuy) June 24, 2023

Javonte Williams’ Career

Unlike some of the other players selected for this series, Williams has a much smaller sample of playing for fantasy managers to decipher. He was a rookie during the 2021 season and suffered his season-ending injury in Week 4 last year. Still, what he’s accomplished in this short time should have fantasy managers excited. Using statistics from PlayerProfiler, you can see just how effective he’s been in the last year and a half.

Williams has been one of the very best runners in creating yards after contact and breaking tackles. His juke rate and the number of evaded tackles were both top 10 in 2021 and were very promising early in 2022, as well. While the sample isn’t as large as we’d like, it’s hard not to see just how effective he’s been carrying the football. He’s also shown a lot of promise catching the ball, as well.

Despite his rookie status in 2021, he still finished 17th in targets among running backs and had a 10.2% target share. It wasn’t just that he got the opportunity either, but he was successful with his chances, finishing 17th in yards per route run. For a rookie, this was incredibly encouraging. Oftentimes, rookie running backs aren’t given a big role in the passing game due to pass-blocking inadequacies, but this wasn’t a factor for Williams. Certainly looking at a four-game sample should come with a grain of salt, it’s impossible to not have been excited about his role in the passing game this past season.

Javonte Williams had a 17.5% target share in 4 games last year.

If he was 100% healthy, he'd be going in the Rhamondre/Jacobs/Hall RB cluster.

Instead, he's routinely available in Round 8.

Take advantage of that playoff week upside. pic.twitter.com/TES7x5k1ID

— Jacob Fabian (@16fabianjacob) June 23, 2023

He has been one of the more effective running backs in the NFL for the past two years and has shown the ability to be a three-down player. His size gives him the potential to become a true workhorse running back. Again, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect this early in 2023. However, Williams has the talent to be a major contributor both on the ground and through the air.

As a rookie, despite sharing the backfield in a 50/50 split with Melvin Gordon, Williams finished with an 11.0 half-PPR PPG average, which ranked RB25, four spots ahead of his current Yahoo! ADP.

So… Are You In or Out?

Yahoo! fantasy managers are currently drafting Williams as the RB29 in half-PPR scoring, requiring fantasy managers to use a late seventh-round pick. At this cost, fantasy managers should absolutely be in on Javonte Williams. There’s just far too much upside at this point and very little risk.

Round seven picks are far from sure things, but very few of them come with the upside to be a top-12 player at their position. Williams possesses that. Even if Denver takes it slow with Williams for the first four weeks of the season, a likely outcome, he could be a top 12 running back the final 12 weeks of the season and that upside is well worth the seventh-round price tag.

The injury concerns are legit — although by all accounts Williams is well ahead of schedule — they’ve been more than taken into consideration. A fully-healthy Williams would be a top-15 running back and going in the fourth round. Now he’s barely a top-30 running back and going at the bottom of the seventh. The injury concerns, exaggerated or not, have been more than accounted for.

With the history of Payton and the offensive line upgrades, Williams has the potential to be a league-winning running back down the stretch and that kind of player is someone everyone should want on their roster if it only takes a seventh-rounder to acquire. Conclusion — all in.

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