Fantasy Football Busts: Is There Any Hope for Chris Olave, D.J. Moore, Aaron Jones, or James Cook?

Justin looks at players who were taken in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts and have not lived up to expectations. Will these players bounce back in 2023?

When you draft a player in the early rounds of a fantasy football draft, you expect them to be productive parts of your fantasy team, right? Seems pretty obvious.

But for one reason or another, that doesn't always happen. Today we'll be looking at some players who haven't lived up to expectations. They aren't droppable, but they also don't look like every-week starters either.

Below, you'll find an analysis of early-round picks who've disappointed this year. Is it time for fantasy managers to give up on them?

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Chris Olave - WR, New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave got off to a strong start to the season. Through the first three games, he averaged 10.7 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 100.7 receiving yards per game. Fantasy managers were thrilled by his production.

But in the five games since, there's been a precipitous drop in Olave's production. The ball's still coming his way, as he's averaging 9.0 targets per game, just 1.7 fewer than he averaged in the first three games. His other numbers, though, have plummeted. Olave averaged just 4.4 receptions and 43 yards per game in five October contests.

He's still on the field plenty. While he played a season-low 74% of snaps last week against the Colts, he was at 79% or higher in snap rate in the other four games, basically exactly in line with where he was over the first three contests.

The biggest thing is just that the Saints are spreading the ball around more. Olave was over 30% in target share in each of the first three games. He's hit that mark just once since. He's still getting air yards, but he's just not producing.

Verdict: The emergence of Rashid Shaheed as a big-play threat has cut into Olave's looks. Still, he's on the field plenty and still gets targets, so he still has WR2 upside.

D.J. Moore - WR, Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore has three games with 100-plus receiving yards over the first five games of this season, but his production has dropped in the last three games, as he's finished with yardage totals of 51, 54, and 55 yards.

Obviously, Moore wasn't going to post 200-yard games on a routine basis, but the recent drop in production is frustrating for fantasy managers who thought he'd established himself as a fantasy QB1.

Of course, there's a pretty obvious explanation here: Justin Fields. Or, to be more specific, the lack of Justin Fields.

Fields was knocked out of the Oct. 15 game against the Vikings with a thumb injury. Tyson Bagent replaced him and has started the past two games for the Bears. He's set to miss Sunday's game against the Saints as well.

Moore had back-to-back 100-yard games with Fields under center. He'll be fine once Fields is back. Until then, you might just have to live with WR3 numbers with Bagent at QB.

Verdict: Moore's recent drop in production is really more about the QB. Once Justin Fields is back, he'll be fine.

Aaron Jones - RB, Green Bay Packers

Injuries have limited Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones to just four games so far this season. His most carries in a game were nine against Chicago back in Week 1. His most yards also came in that game, when he gained 41.

He did play his highest snap rate of the season this past week against Minnesota though, as he was in for 51% of Green Bay's offensive plays. Jones showed last year that he can have big games without needing to play a million snaps. Two of his 100-yard rushing games came with him playing under 60% of snaps.

Per PlayerProfiler, Jones actually ranks seventh among running backs in fantasy points per opportunity. He's averaged over four yards per carry in three of his four games and he's averaging a career high in receiving yards per game.

He's just not getting enough touches. You have to figure that will change once he's all the way to 100% from his hamstring injury, but the Packers seem to be taking a very careful approach with Jones for now.

Verdict: If Jones is ever fully healthy, he should be an RB2 option, but he's likely not delivering what you expected when you drafted him.

James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook has had a pretty weird season. In terms of raw yardage, he's been pretty good, averaging 60.8 rushing yards per game plus 24.0 receiving yards.

But Cook has only found the end zone once on the ground this season and his receiving usage has been dropping, with just four total targets over the past three games. To make matters worse, his already-meager red zone contributions took a hit this week when the Bills signed Leonard Fournette, who has 34 career rushing scores.

To put some of the red zone concerns into perspective, has 41 carries inside the red zone, but the vast majority of those come between the 20 and the 10. He has just eight carries inside the 10 and two goal-line carries. Latavius Murray leads the Bills in the latter two with 12 and eight, respectively.

The easiest way to score a rushing touchdown is to be close to the end zone. Adding Fournette suggests that Cook's not going to get many chances to do that. As good as he can be at creating yardage in the rest of the field, the lack of touchdown upside really caps his fantasy value.

Verdict: Cook's a talented player, but the Bills usage patterns at running back are bad news for him. He's a low-end RB1.

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