RADIO
Took a split in Week 9 after having just two plays. Minnesota could have been an outright winner with a few more stops on defense, but they couldn't slow down Baltimore. Dallas on the other hand looked like a totally different team and instead of leading by more than 5.5 points at halftime, they were held scoreless for three quarters. Just a really brutal game and a bad bet. We learn from it and push on to Week 10.
- 2021 Season: 11-16 (41%, -5.9u)
- Spread: 6-3, +2.3u
- Total/Team Total: 3-9, -6.2u
- Moneyline: 0-3, -2.3u
- Props: 2-1, +.3u
As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t more enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) at Washington Football Team
Sunday 11/14, 1 PM EST | O/U: 51
Fresh off a bye week following a shocking 36-27 loss to the New Orleans Saints, the Bucs are ready to get back on the track. It's not that the offense let them down in Week 8, as they still gained over 400 yards, including 350 through the air. The everlasting Tom Brady ranks within the Top 5 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QB Rating, so it's pretty clear that the offense is thriving. He's already likely to be without Antonio Brown (ankle) and now Chris Godwin (foot) has missed the first two days of practice this week, so if he misses the game that would be a huge blow to the offense. Defensively, Tampa showed a bit of weakness in Week 8, allowing over 150 rushing yards and not forcing any takeaways for the first time since Week 4. Aside from Week 7's win over Chicago, Tampa has allowed 17 or more points in every game this season.
Washington is a mess right now, losing four straight by an average of 12.5 points. They've turned the ball over twice in each of those four games, although the last two games have been solid for the offense in terms of yards gained, totaling 430 and 342, respectively, with the former game drawing 195 yards on the ground. Taylor Heinecke won't be deemed a franchise quarterback any time soon, but he's serviceable in an offense with weapons few and far between. Antonio Gibson hasn't been able to get anything going this year, but Terry McLaurin has impressed with over 500 yards receiving with four scores. On the defensive end is where the WFT's issues start to shine. They ranked 31st in passing DVOA but 10th against the rush, allowing over 100 yards just once since Week 4. They've also generated seven takeaways in that four game losing streak, so it's not like they are completely inept.
Tampa Bay's offense is one of the best in the NFL and Washington's just isn't. However, one thing both units have in common is their average Time of Possession per game is over 30 minutes long over the L3. There is a chance that Tampa is without two of their top pass catchers, while Washington has either been struggling or trying to establish the run of late, leading me to believe they'll do the same this week to keep the ball out of Brady's hands. Give me the under.
Pick: Under 51 (-110, Foxbet) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10)
Sunday, 11/14, 1 PM EST | O/U: 47.5
The Colts had a unique victory in Week 9, dominating the first half before letting the Jets throw all over them in the second. While it never got closer than 19 points, the Colts defense allowed Josh Johnson to throw for over 315 yards and three scores. Consider it a fluke, as their pass defense has only allowed more than 300 yards in one other game this season, and that was against Lamar Jackson. Offensively, they've been reeling of late, scoring at least 30 points in four consecutive games and averaged 330 yards er game in that stretch. Running back Jonathan Taylor has been incredible, rushing for nearly 500 yards and six scores while Carson Wentz has found his favorite target in Michael Pittman Jr. whose scored four times over 21 receptions. With their stars healthy on offense, look for this trend to continue in a juicy matchup at home.
Jacksonville picked up arguably the biggest upset in the last five years last week by downing the Bills in a brutal 9-6 victory. Consider they almost lost their rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence for the game before he returned, but overall it was anything but a pretty game offensively. They totaled just 218 yards of offense, but they were also missing their lead back James Robinson (heel) and they could be without him this week. They've averaged just over 300 yards of offense per game the L3 while averaging just 19 first downs a game and 5.3 yards per play this season. This team is flat out not good and until Lawrence gets adjusted to the NFL, the offense will continue to struggle. I won't give their defense much time despite holding Buffalo to just six points. If you're betting on NFL games this season, you know the Bills' Week 9 performance was a total fluke.
Indianapolis has won four game this year and all four of those victories have come by at least 10 or more points.While three of those wins were against the Dolphins (Week 4), Texans (Week 6), and Jets (Week 9), the Texans are at about the same level of those teams, if not worse. I'll trust talent and stats every time.
Pick: Indianapolis -10 (-110, Foxbet) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Prop
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Sunday, 11/14, 4:25 PM EST | O/U: 45
We're pulling back into the props market for my third play, and it's one that I'm in love with. The Broncos aren't exactly the most exciting team in the world, but they certainly have some exciting young players. One of them being rookie running back Javonte Williams. The newcomer has been getting plenty of work, garnering 117 touches with two touchdowns and averaged 4.9 yard per rush. It's only a matter of time before he gets the majority of the work in this backfield but he has a wonderful matchup in Week 10.
The Eagles hold one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing around 120 ypg on the ground along with eight rushing scores. Their defensive line ranks 26th in Stuffed Rank and 18th in Power Success Rank, meaning they have plenty of work to do. Williams has 12 rushes in the red zone and leads the Broncos with five carries inside the five yard line. Given the Eagles struggles against running backs and Williams' clear ability to make plays on his own, I think this is fantastic value, despite him having only two touchdowns this season.
Pick: Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown +145 (Draftkings, .5 unit)
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