Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/17/23)

It's Eastern Conference Finals time! I'm assuming the Boston Celtics against the Miami Heat was the matchup we were all envisioning before the season started. Somehow, someway, we end up with this showdown in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second year in a row and third in the last four seasons. The Jimmy Butler-led Miami Heat are only the second-eighth seed to advance to the Conference Finals. They will look to advance to the NBA Finals like the 1999 New York Knicks were able to do. Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics are four wins from returning back to the NBA Finals and look to climb the mountain top this year after losing to the Golden State Warriors in six games in 2022.

I'll be previewing this Eastern Conference Final matchup and also providing an angle for Game One. I enter Game One with a 12-8 NBA playoff record and have been able to go 8-2 in my last ten.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA playoff game that tips off at 8:30 PM EST on Wednesday, May 17th. 

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NBA Betting Picks: Eastern Conference Finals

Miami Heat (+8) @ Boston Celtics (213 total)

Season Series: Tied 2-2

As mentioned in the intro, we get to see this matchup for the second season in a row and the third time in the last four seasons.

After a 44-38 regular season, the Miami Heat hosted the Atlanta Hawks in the 7-8 Eastern Conference play-in game. Losing that game at home, Atlanta would go on to play the second-seeded Boston Celtics. With the Chicago Bulls beating the Toronto Raptors in the 9-10 game, it set up a date between the Heat and Bulls in Miami for the last playoff seed. Jimmy Butler and Max Strus would each score 31 points and the Heat would win 102-91, clinching the last playoff seed. The rest has been history with Miami defeating the Milwaukee Bucks in five games and the New York Knicks in six games to be a part of the final four teams for the third time in four seasons.

The Boston Celtics earned the second seed in the Eastern Conference after a 57-25 regular season. They would defeat the Atlanta Hawks in six games in the first round. This set up the seven-game grudge match against the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round. Down 3-2 going to Philadelphia for Game Six, Jayson Tatum hit four three-pointers in the final four minutes to propel this series to a seventh game. In Game Seven, Tatum would score 51 points en route to a Celtics blowout win. Tatum's 51 points are the most ever in a Game Seven, breaking Stephen Curry's record of 50 points against the Sacramento Kings in round one of this year's playoffs.

Celtics:

Boston pretty much returns the same roster as last season. One major upgrade they made was getting guard Malcolm Brogdon. The 2022-23 NBA Sixth Man of The Year Award winner, has scored at least 12+ points in 11 of 13 playoff games. He's been so valuable to them and is the guard off the bench they were really lacking in last year's playoffs. A lineup of Marcus Smart-Malcolm Brogdon-Jaylen Brown-Jayson Tatum-Al Horford has played 69 minutes together in the 2023 playoffs and has a defensive rating of 88.4 which is just ridiculous. He defends extremely well and also can provide scoring to take pressure off Tatum and Brown.

Derrick White saw his minutes drop in Games Six and Seven against Philly when Robert Williams was inserted back into the starting lineup. Pending health, Williams should be starting for the foreseeable future, and the ferocious Celtics defense was rejuvenated in those final two Sixers games. I do believe White will get time against Miami and Philadelphia was just a bad matchup for him. Grant Williams is the other name to look at. Grant has only played above 20 minutes in two playoff games so far and it is unclear how he will factor in this series. He played just under 30 minutes in the Celtics' Game Seven victory over the Heat in the ECF in the 2022 playoffs.

Heat:

Miami does have some changes to look at from last year's team. Of course, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are back leading the way. Someone who is not with the team anymore is P.J. Tucker. Tucker played an integral part for the Heat last season but in classic Miami fashion, they've had other players step up. The Heat were able to add Kevin Love for free in the middle of the season and he's averaged 20 minutes per game so far in the playoffs. Tyler Herro got injured in Game One against the Bucks and Victor Oladipo got hurt in Game Two. Both players have been out but who cares, it's the Heat, they always find a way.

Without Herro and Oladipo, it's been guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin stepping up. We've even seen the resurgence of Kyle Lowry who provides them with a steady and experienced hand on the court.

Series edge:

As much as I do like the randomness of the Miami Heat, I have to go with the Boston Celtics here. The Celtics' defense in Games Six and Seven against the Philadelphia 76ers reminded everyone why they should be feared. Last season they were able to get to six games in the NBA Finals despite Robert Williams being hampered and Jayson Tatum looking dead exhausted.

A lineup of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Robert Williams has only played 47 minutes together in six playoff games. They are averaging a +3.2 when on the floor while also having a 67.9 true shooting percentage. Opponents have a 42.5 field goal percentage in this year's playoffs. The same five-man unit held opponents to 43.6 field goal shooting and 34.8 percent from the three-point line in the 2022 playoffs.

I assume Joe Mazzula will experiment more with a lineup like this going forward and maybe even put Brogdon in for Smart at times. It's a five-man lineup with guys that can all defend, have length and two players in Tatum and Brown who can get you 25+ points and beyond any game. Robert Williams is such a key for the Celtics and the Heat don't really have the bodies to matchup up size-wise against them.

For the Heat, Jimmy Butler will continue to be their everything. Averaging 31.1 points in the 2023 playoffs, Butler has the highest offensive rating and true shooting percentage of his playoff career. This is also on top of having a career-high usage rate. Jimmy needs to continue to be aggressive and no one thus far has been able to stop him near the basket. The 15.6 points in the paint he is averaging these playoffs is the highest of his playoff career and better than the 13.5 in the 2022 playoffs. Over 50 percent of his points are coming in the paint and that is where he thrives. It will be interesting to see how he navigates a Celtics defense that has allowed the second-fewest PITP (points in the paint) in the playoffs.

Bam Adebayo has been really solid in the 2023 playoffs, averaging 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds on nearly 50 percent shooting. Boston is not the best matchup for him but he was able to average 15 points and 8.4 rebounds in last year's ECF.

Although I don't think they'll win the series, Miami has shown a great ability of players being able to step up. This has become a very hard team to bury because of their random scoring variance. In one game it'll be Strus then Vincent then Martin then Lowry and you get where I'm going with this. Head coach Erik Spoelstra is the best in the biz and typically knows how to set his players up for success.

In terms of talent, the Boston Celtics would appear superior but the Miami Heat have shown enough over the years to think they won't just roll over.

Game 1 total:

I really like the under to start this series. Boston should be rolling out that five-man lineup talked about earlier and could stifle Miami early in this game. Miami's stats against the Bucks in the first round looked very different from the second round against the New York Knicks. The Heat put up 124 points on 45 percent three-point shooting against the Bucks. In the Knicks series, they averaged 104.3 points on 30.6 three-point shooting. The Knicks series much better aligns with who the Heat have been all season and I see that continuing here at least for Game One. Miami also likes to play at a slower pace and knows getting into a scoring contest with Boston isn't the best idea.

After averaging 121.2 points against the Atlanta Hawks on 51.2 field goal shooting and 40.6 percent from three, the Celtics were much worse offensively against the Sixers. I know, the Sixers are way better on defense than the Hawks but there were still things that didn't look great. Inserting Robert Williams back into the starting lineup for a player like Derrick White will help the defense but overall should hurt the offense. This is a good thing for what we need and I can see this series having games that look similar to what we saw in Heat vs Knicks or that Game Six of Celtics vs Sixers.

When these teams have played this season, they've gone over the total. I don't look much into regular season series and think playoff basketball is a completely different ballgame. A hard physical series that hopefully starts off with defense being the highlight in Game One.

The Pick: Game One Under 213 (-110 Fanduel)

Series Prediction/Picks: Celtics win 4-3 (+420 FD), Series to go 7 games (+270 FD), Heat +1.5 games (+172 FD)

Enjoy Game One and the series!

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