Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/10/23)

Wednesday night NBA playoff basketball features two teams fighting for their playoff lives. On Monday night, the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors entered their games down 2-1 in the series on the road. Neither was able to even the series and they both face a steep uphill battle as only 13 teams in NBA history have ever come back down from 3-1. They both get the luxury of returning to their home courts with eager fans hoping they can extend their season.

If you've been following my picks on here recently, I have hit my last six in a row. The Heat and Knicks combined for 210 points in Game 4, going over 206. I have gotten the over/under right in this series in Games 2-4 and once again will target the total. Golden State was leading most of Game 4 before a 27-17 fourth quarter flipped a close game for the Los Angeles Lakers. The Warriors were able to narrowly cover +3.5, which added another win to the column. I come in tonight with a 10-7 playoff record and hope to keep it going.

In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite picks against the spread and game totals for the NBA playoff games that tip off at 7:30 PM EST on Wednesday, May 10.

Miami Heat (-4) @ New York Knicks (209.5 total)

Series: Heat lead 3-1

When I talked about this series prior to Game 4, I pointed out how the Knicks were getting a lot of open shots. This team was better than the measly 86 they scored in Game 3 and they were able to show that. Scoring 15 more points in Game 4, the Knicks were able to help the over 206 cross the finish line. Miami put up 109 points, which was enough to get them a victory and a 3-1 series lead.

This series has gone under, over, under, over, and I will follow suit targeting the under in Game 5. The total sits at 210, the exact number of points scored in Game 4.

What I found eye-opening is these teams combined to only hit 22/67 three-pointers and 34/46 foul shots in Game 4 but the total stays the...same.

Knicks Offensive Woes:

The Knicks only attempted 76 field goals in Game 4, their lowest of the playoffs. New York hit 37/76 (49%) field goals, 9/28 (32%) three-pointers, and 18/24 (75%) free throws. Now, the sentiment would usually point toward the optimistic approach of one saying the Knicks should shoot better in Game 5.

With a low amount of field goal attempts, only 32 percent from three, and six missed foul shots, they should totally improve on that. I'd like to think that but the Knicks have given me no reason to believe it.

Through nine games, they are averaging 99.7 points and are the only team left in the playoffs averaging less than 100. They are the worst among playoff teams remaining in field goal attempts, field goal percentage, threes per game, and three-point point percentage. This isn't a one or two-game sample size we're talking about, this is nine games of just bad offense.

Almost every key Knick besides RJ Barrett is shooting it worse from three in the postseason compared to the regular season. In the two home games this series, they have put up 101 and 111 points. I'd focus more on the 101 they scored in Game 1 with Jimmy Butler playing.

New York hasn't moved the ball well either, averaging the least assists per game. The lack of ball movement has led to some poor shots. The Knicks are only averaging 18 points per game this series on pull-up shooting. They are hitting 8.3/22.5 (36.7%) field goals and 1.5/8.5 (17.6%) three-pointers. I point this out because it's not like they are doing a good job creating for themselves even with low assist numbers.

The Knicks only hit 2/12 (16.7%) three-pointers when given at least 6+ feet of open space in Game 4. It feels like there is a real mental hurdle with this team's shooting and I'm not sure if they will be able to get past it.

Heat:

For all the talk of the Knicks' unimpressive offense, Miami hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard.

Against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, the Heat averaged 124 points, shot 51.9 percent from the floor, and 45 percent from three on 15.4 made threes per game.

The series against New York has looked very different. Miami is averaging 106.7 points with a 43.2 field goal percentage and 31.4 three-point percentage. The 15.4 three-pointers made per game against the Bucks is now 12.5 against the Knicks. The Heat were the lowest-scoring offense this regular season and played at the second-slowest pace in the NBA. Regression was due after an anomaly shooting series against Milwaukee and that's exactly what we're seeing.

Bam Adebayo came up big in Game 4 and the Knicks really had no answer for him:

Prediction:

Both teams are leaving a lot of shots out there but that might just be who they are. New York will be desperate in Game 5 to extend the series, which could lead to a lot of forced shots. I expect Miami to continue to do what they do and slow the pace down.

I'll side with the game of basketball to keep the ball out of the hoop in this game.

The Pick: Under 209.5 (-110 FanDuel)

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Los Angeles Lakers (+7) @ Golden State Warriors (226 total)

Series: Lakers lead 3-1

Raise your hand if you expected the fourth quarter of Game 4 to be the Lonnie Walker IV legacy game.

Anyone who just raised their hand can never be trusted. Lonnie Walker played a grand total of 13 minutes against the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round.

In Game 2 of this series, Walker played the entire fourth quarter with the Warriors already having the game in hand. Game 3 then saw LW check in with four minutes left in the first quarter. He would score 12 points in 24 minutes and the Lakers would rout the Warriors 127-97 to take a 2-1 series lead.

Taking advantage of increased opportunity, Walker played 27 minutes and scored 15 points in the Game 4 victory. All 15 points came in the fourth quarter on a night he'll never forget:

This series also got a much-needed close game after back-to-back blowouts.

The Lakers had their fun in Game 4 but I think the Warriors should handle business at home in Game 5.

Warriors Home Bounce-Back:

Game 4 was a very winnable game for Golden State even with Klay Thompson only scoring nine points. In this series, Klay is averaging 27.5 points at home compared to 12 on the road. It sounds simple and maybe it is, he gets going with the crowd behind him.

Stephen Curry finally crossed the 30-point threshold this series and he is too dynamic to keep down for this long. Steph has also found a groove passing the ball and has 32 assists through four games. In the seven-game series against the Sacramento Kings, he had 35 total assists. Unlocking him as a distributor is opening up the floor but the Warriors only hit 12/41 (29%) threes in the Game 4 loss.

Golden State shooting at home compared to away is a big difference. In six road games, the Warriors are hitting 13.3/43.2 (30.9%) of their threes. In five home games, that number increases to 16.4/42.2 (38.9%). This is nothing to scoff at and for a team like the Warriors who rely on shooting and energy, this is significant.

Their free throw percentage also raises from 71.5 percent on the road to 76.9 percent at home. In terms of field goal percentage, they have shot it about three percent better on the road but are averaging fewer attempts. I like the Warriors' tempo and shot volume they have had in the Chase Center.

The Warriors also outscored the Lakers 52-46 in points in the paint. If they can get their shot working, it will force the Lakers to close out harder, which can also open up cuts to the basket.

Prediction:

Without a Lonnie Walker fourth-quarter masterpiece, there is a good chance the Warriors win the game and push the series. I'm not saying the Lakers will take it easy in Game 5 but I expect the Warriors to cover this number. Steph and Klay should each have their typical big home games and Los Angeles likely will have their eye on closing it out at home in Game 6.

The last time Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson found themselves down 3-1 with a Game 5 home game was the 2016 Western Conference Finals against the Kevin Durant-led Oklahoma City Thunder. Golden State would win 120-111 thanks to 31 points from Curry and 27 from Klay to extend the series they would ultimately end up winning in seven games.

Does that mean anything? Maybe. The moral of the story is I'm trusting Steph and the Warriors in this spot to win and cover. I expect the shooting to be better and the Lakers may not press as hard if they get down early. It's a healthy amount of points and I'll side with the high line here.

The Pick: Warriors -7 (-110 FanDuel)

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