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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/28/21. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player prop.
What's up, NBA bettors? I apologize for missing my usual Monday article but my head was spinning yesterday as I tried to decipher that set of games and figure out who was going to actually play from each team. Christmas Day's picks didn't do so hot and I admittedly forced the issue a bit, giving out 1-2 picks per game just to have a reason to watch each of those contests.
Today is yet another adventure in the world of COVID protocols and injuries. My projections for game totals have been really affected by the influx of new players to each of these rosters, so today I'll be giving out several picks against the spread instead (which just so happens to be my strength this season if you check the overall record). Remember to continue to keep checking spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) especially if players are ruled in or out. Several of these spreads have already moved a lot since I started my research this morning!
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, December 28th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 62-67
- Against the Spread 35-22
- Over/Under 19-22
- Other/Props 3-4
- Teasers/Parlays 5-19
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks
Washington Wizards (+6.5) @ Miami Heat (208.5 total)
The big news here is that Jimmy Butler is back for Miami and didn't miss a beat in his return to action as he went 17-11-5 in 35 minutes against Orlando on Sunday. The Heat did lose Kyle Lowry and are still down Bam Adebayo, but this team has been playing well now for a while with their full complement of players. Butler, Herro, and the Miami role players might be more than enough to handle this Washington squad tonight.
Washington is missing a slew of players due to protocols and just had Montrezl Harrell ruled out this morning, too. Bradley Beal is still questionable, but if he plays he can't do it all himself and the lack of help on this team other than Dinwiddie and Kuzma is alarming. Miami is simply the better team, playing at home, and are in good form while Washington has limped to a 3-8 record this month. Grab this number quickly, if Beal ends up not playing I am sure the Heat will end up close to 8-9 point favorites.
The Pick: Heat -6.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Lakers (-5) @ Houston Rockets (228.5 total)
This should be a great game for DFS purposes as both teams don't play any defense and it features some of the two higher-paced teams in the league. It doesn't feel good to back the Rockets considering they've dropped four straight and were annihilated by the Hornets last night. However, there are reasons for optimism here. For one, they could get their starting backcourt back tonight as both Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. were available to play but didn't play last night. The game against Charlotte got ugly fast, so I imagine Houston just decided to punt that game and prepare for the Lakers tonight.
The Rockets starters (other than Brooks, who usually doesn't start) played only around 20-25 minutes each so I don't worry too much about the back-to-back here. On the year, Houston has been middle-of-the-pack ATS while the Lakers have been one of the absolute worst ATS. If you haven't watched the "Lake-Show" lately, they've been downright horrible and have dropped five straight games. I love betting against the Lakers as I think Vegas continues to give them too much credit based on the Lebron factor when this team statistically has been one of the worst teams in the league. I'm backing the home favorites here and hoping the Rockets hang with the Lakers - maybe they'll even pull off the upset!
The Pick: Rockets +5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Cleveland Cavaliers (-6) @ New Orleans Pelicans (214.5 total)
If you read this column you know that a) I am a huge Cavs fan and b) that the Cavs have been winning us money all season thus far. Cleveland continues to have the best record ATS this season in the league and they simply keep finding ways to get it done, even as important rotational players have been out for them at various times. Right now the Cavs are missing their big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but luckily they have a former All-Star in Kevin Love who can step right into the starting lineup and produce as well as another young big man in Lauri Markannen.
I don't think I need to convince you the Cavs are good as most NBA fans have finally come to that realization. They've won seven of their last eight games and it's hard to imagine a Pelicans team that is likely without its best player (Brandon Ingram) slowing them down here. New Orleans has been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and without Ingram, this thing could get ugly. This line has already moved quite a bit towards Cleveland so I would grab it ASAP. I like Cleveland to win by 9-10 points so I feel good about getting them at -6 here.
The Pick: Cavs -6 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
New York Knicks (-5.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (211.5 total)
Betting against the Knicks on Christmas Day didn't work out so well for me as the shorthanded Hawks couldn't hang, but I think I am going to try it again! I was really impressed by what Minnesota did last night, as they pulled off a win against Boston. This Timberwolves team was without their young core of D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Their fifth starter Patrick Beverley missed last night's game, too, but could return for this contest tonight.
Minnesota has a lot of young talent and we saw that on display last night as guys like Jaylen Nowell and Nathan Knight carried this squad. If these young kids are playing with confidence, why can't they beat the Knicks tonight? New York has been relying on a red-hot Kemba Walker and we've all seen that movie before, he won't shoot the lights out forever. I like the Wolves to hang here and 5.5 points feel like plenty. I'll take the home underdogs here and hope they get Beverley back in the lineup to put the clamps down on Kemba.
The Pick: T-Wolves +5.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
How about a money line parlay today? Here are four teams I like to win and when we combine their money lines together, we get some decent odds. I need to boost my parlay percentage! Seriously, though, I think all four of these teams win pretty handily today, I'm going to stake a full unit on this play.
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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