RADIO
Last night, the NBA returned in a big way as the Celtics pulled out a high-scoring win over the Sixers and the defending champion Warriors dominated the Lakers. I was on the Sixers, so a bit disappointed that they couldn't slow down the Celtics at all in the second half. But the Warriors winning big was no surprise and the Lakers clearly look like they still have a lot to figure out this year in order to be relevant once again.
Today we get almost every other team back in action with the exception of the Clippers and Bucks who don't open up until tomorrow. With 12 games on the docket, we have no shortage of spots to target with NBA wagers and I am hoping to get out in front of the crowd on some teams and spots that the public might be sleeping on today! Last year was my first full year handicapping the NBA and I had to grind out a small positive net gain over the course of the entire season. I am hoping my experience from last season will help me improve my overall record and ROI this season.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2021-2022 Overall Record: 123-121-2 (not including props)
- Against the Spread: 85-75-2
- Game/Team Totals: 38-46
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Washington Wizards (-1) @ Indiana Pacers (227 total)
This spread has been moving back and forth and bettors aren't really sure who they like more here. Both teams are relatively young and in rebuilding modes, however, the Wizards are a little further along in the process perhaps as they still have Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, and Kristaps Porzingis to anchor their team. And they brought in veterans Monte Morris and Will Barton to fill out their lineup, which is a pretty decent starting NBA lineup by all appearances.
No one loves Tyrese Haliburton more than me this season, but there will be plenty of growing pains for the Pacers this season. They looked very bad at times this season and are probably going to ship off Buddy Hield and Myles Turner at some point this year. My expectations for Washington are higher than Indiana, though neither team is likely to make much noise in a loaded Eastern conference this season. In a game that's basically a pick 'em, I will take the Wizards here as I think they have the advantage of a more experienced starting unit and I look for the star power of Beal and Porzingis to carry them to a win.
The Pick: Wizards ML (-115)
Orlando Magic (+3.5) @ Detroit Pistons (217)
We have a theme here today with quite a few road underdogs that I find myself landing on. And for the first few weeks of the season, we have to be really careful how much we use last year's data or our preconceived notions of how good certain teams are. Having said all that, I am really surprised to see the Magic as the underdog here, even if they are on the road. Detroit was simply one of the worst teams in the league last year and lost Jerami Grant while adding a few talented rookies in the draft and retreads like Bojan Bogdanovic. It's going to be another long season in Detroit and I think the organization will be prioritizing developing young talent and getting guys minutes over actually winning games.
The Magic have a solid core of young players with more experience and they should be better this year than last. They have a deep backcourt with Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, and Jalen Suggs all being one year further in their development. Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., and Mo Bamba are back in the front court and joined by the Rookie of the Year front-runner Paolo Banchero. This is a team with talent and they began to play better even toward the end of last season. Banchero adds some much-needed athleticism, too. I simply think Orlando is a better team now, even if it's not by all that much, give me the underdog and the value on the money line.
The Pick: Magic ML (+135)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.5) @ Toronto Raptors (214.5)
I have to make the disclaimer every year that I am a Cavs fan, but I do not let that affect my picks. It just so happened to be a good year to bet the Cavs as underdogs early in the season, we were printing money on taking them with the points when they were first emerging as a much better team than anyone expected them to be.
Now expectations are high in Cleveland this year, especially after the front office swung a deal to bring in Donovan Mitchell. I think the Cavs have the weapons they need to compete, I just hope it all comes together as it should and they can stay healthy. I have a ton of respect for the Raptors and I like this young core in Toronto. However, I think Cleveland is better and that their depth (especially off the bench) gives them an edge in this match-up.
Cleveland and Toronto are both likely playoff teams, but Cleveland is a potential 50-win team in my opinion and they should be favored here! Let's ride that money line with another underdog here!
The Pick: Cavs ML (+120)
Portland Trail Blazers (+2) @ Sacramento Kings (227)
And our third and final underdog of the day in Portland! The Blazers were terrible last year, there's no way around that. But we have to throw away pretty much all of our data on that team since they played at least half of the season with backups as Damian Lillard was hurt, CJ McCollum was traded, and then Jusuf Nurkic and others were shut down early.
Portland is back with both Dame and Nurkic in the lineup flanked by defensive stalwarts Josh Hart and Jerami Grant. Anfernee Simons is ready to take on the Robin role to Dame's Batman that was formerly McCollum's and I think this Portland team has some sneaky upside as a team that sneaks into the playoffs.
The Kings should be improved, too, and I'm not totally down on them. But they won't have Keegan Murray tonight, who I peg as a real difference-maker for them. And they still don't play any defense. In my mind, Damian Lillard is much better than De'Aaron Fox and we see him dominate that matchup, while Nurkic gives Sabonis a tough time in the post. Hart and Grant can help lock down the wings. This Portland team could be considerably better on defense than previous versions, which makes them really dangerous. I'll take Portland here with some decent value on their money line for plus odds.
The Pick: Blazers ML (+110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Charlotte Hornets (pick 'em) @ San Antonio Spurs (224 total)
I am not sure why this number has been falling since it opened, but I am jumping on it. Yes, this is Charlotte without LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, but they are still going to push the pace on offense with Rozier and Hayward and play absolutely no defense on the other side of the ball.
And yes, this is the Spurs without Dejounte Murray now, but this is still a team with plenty of very capable scorers in Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, and Jakob Poeltl leading the way. And San Antonio played little to no defense last year, either. I have this game projected for 231 total points, so even if we ding this total a few points for both teams having slightly less offensive efficiency this season, we should still be able on the pace and lack of defense to get us there.
The Pick: OVER 224 (-110)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Memphis + Minnesota + Denver = (+141 DraftKings Sportsbrook)
Underdog 4.5 point Teaser: Orlando +8, Houston +14, Cleveland +7, Portland +6.5 = (+240 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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