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We have our first big Friday slate after a busy trade deadline, and there are some interesting props to focus on right from the first game of the day, a Braves-Cubs matinee clash at Wrigley. As customary, I'll focus on a pair of pitchers and a trio of hitters to consider placing bets on.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, August 4, 2023, in this article. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Logan Allen OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110 PointsBet Sportsbook)
Allen has admittedly been all over the place this season and comes into Friday's start having surrendered 10 runs (nine earned) over 13 innings in his last two starts. However, that rough patch was preceded by 12.2 scoreless frames across three appearances, a stretch during which he recorded 18 strikeouts.
The sample offers a glimpse at Allen's swing-and-miss upside, and the matchup Friday could line up to facilitate more of the same. Although the White Sox got to Allen for five earned runs over six innings at Guaranteed Rate Field in his most recent start, Chicago hasn't been a very potent offense when facing southpaws on the road.
Chicago has a 28.7 percent strikeout rate against lefties when traveling in the last month. Zooming out to a larger sample that dates back to June 1, the Pale Hose sport an AL-high 27.7 percent strikeout rate in that split. Ironically, Allen hasn't been as good a strikeout pitcher at home as he's been on the road, but he's recorded over six strikeouts on four occasions and has come just short in five other instances with five Ks.
Finally, consider the White Sox have one of the lowest projected totals of the night at 3.9 runs, furthering Allen's prospects of staying in long enough to cash this prop.
Quinn Priester OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (-108 Caesars SportsBook)
Priester's control has been an issue dating back to his minor-league days, as he's averaged over three walks per nine innings in six different stops during his professional career, including in his current nascent big-league stint. The right-hander has already issued 11 free passes over his first 15.2 big-league innings, and his Friday opponent is one that could definitely coax another laborious start from him.
The Brewers have been a patient bunch against right-handed pitching, and they'll enter Friday's contest with an MLB-high 11.5 percent walk rate versus righties at home since June 1. Priester has been challenged to find the strike zone against either lefty or righty bats, so he doesn't get any respite against a lineup that's fairly split down the middle in terms of handedness.
It's also worth noting Priester has been allowed to hang in even when struggling with his location thus far, as he's pitched at least five innings in each of his first three starts. He's surrendered at least three walks in two of those outings, and Milwaukee's track record suggests there could be at least three free passes issued Friday.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Austin Riley sent this ball 463 ft to the MOON ☄️
to hit a HR (+310) 💣
(via @MLB) | #ForTheA pic.twitter.com/pGHwEK5QbK
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) July 30, 2023
Austin Riley To Record An RBI (+125 BetRivers Sportsbook)
The most tempting bet with Riley these days is naturally one that banks on him leaving the yard, considering he's belted nine homers in his last 14 games alone. However, given how random round-trippers can be, even with as prodigious a slugger as Riley, pivoting to this bet isn't a bad option considering it still carries an attractive price and carries a higher probability.
Atlanta has a solid projected total of 5 runs Friday, and Riley has a highly favorable history against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. Riley has posted a .667 average in seven plate appearances against Hendricks, and the veteran righty has pitched to a .283 BAA at home this season. Riley operates in the heart of a lethal lineup as well, which sets him up with plenty of RBI opportunities.
Riley has also done a good job of taking advantage of those scenarios, posting a .286 average, .931 OPS and 12.2 wRAA with men on base. He also has a whopping 22 RBI over his first 16 post-All-Star-break games, furthering his case for having a good chance to deliver again Friday.
Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-155 DraftKings SportsBook)
Yelich is starting to once again resemble the player that earned a massive seven-year, $215 million deal a few seasons ago, as he'll enter Friday's contest with a .291/.374/.478 slash line, 118 hits (including 43 extra-base hits), 62 RBI, 76 runs and 22 steals across 106 games.
The 2018 MVP should have a strong chance of cashing this prop Friday night versus Priester, who's pitched to a .314 average and .436 wOBA against the 42 lefty bats he's encountered at the big-league level thus far. Meanwhile, Yelich has a .314 average, .934 OPS and .397 wOBA against right-handed pitching at home.
Yelich is averaging exactly 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at home this season, and with Milwaukee sporting a healthy 5.2-run projected total Friday, the red-hot leadoff hitter should have a strong chance of achieving this prop.
Matt McLain OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook) OR To Hit A HR (+450 Bet365 Sportsbook)
McLain's outstanding rookie season includes a .304 average, .892 OPS and 35 extra-base hits, including 11 homers. He's racked up 146 total bases in just 68 games as well, which certainly makes the first prop very achievable.
McLain will be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin, who's pitched to a .293 average and .374 wOBA against right-handed hitters on the road. Meanwhile, McLain has knocked lefties around for a .353 average, 1.038 OPS, .439 wOBA and 172 wRC+ during his young career.
Corbin also has a 2.6 HR/9 against righty bats on the road, so taking a chance on McLain leaving the yard isn't the worst idea either, especially since he's knocked eight of his 11 homers at home. Finally, Cincinnati's 6.2 projected-run total, up from an open of 5.9, is yet another metric that's encouraging with respect to McLain's chances of making some noise with the bat Friday.
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