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It's been a nice late-season surge for me this week as I had one of my most profitable weeks on MLB props this season. Let's see if we can keep it cooking today with a few more player props for Sunday's baseball games. In fact, this is going to be a special pitcher-only props edition today as I have found a handful of different pitching props that I like!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, August 27, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Justin Verlander OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings)
It's a revenge game of sorts for Justin Verlander as he takes the hill today in Detroit where he pitched for a large chunk of his career. But most importantly, it's a good matchup for the Houston hurler as he's facing a Detroit team that is striking out over 25% of the time lately. We saw Hunter Brown (Verlander's younger clone) mow down nine Tigers in just five innings yesterday. JV is in good form as well, as he tossed six scoreless frames against the Red Sox with nine strikeouts in his last outing.
We just need seven from Verlander here and his odds have not yet budged, telling me that there are plenty of bettors who are betting he can't get there. He's the only big number I am going after today and the plus money is worth the gamble in this spot, I think.
Paul Blackburn OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-145 DraftKings)
The White Sox have done some damage with their bats in this series against Oakland so far, but they continue to strike out at a high rate. I was all over JP Sears yesterday at the same number and he paid off in a big way, going well over his prop.
Chicago's K% to RHP is not as high as it is to lefties of late. But they are still whiffing around 24% of the time, which is above average and gives me the green light to go after them with Paul Blackburn. Blackburn has been in excellent form over the last month for Oakland and has been the lone reliable starter for this staff.
Blackburn has 5+ strikeouts in five of his last six starts and I think he makes for a nice ladder candidate here as I could see him push for 6-7 strikeouts in this spot.
Griffin Canning OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)
Here's another low number I want to attack, though it's probably a bit riskier since Griffin Canning has a tougher matchup than either of our first pitchers. The Mets have not been a high-strikeout team all year and actually walk quite often. They have some nice plate discipline as a group and are not likely to chase a ton of pitches out of the zone.
But Griffin Canning has been really, really good in terms of strikeouts per inning this season. He has five strikeouts in each of his last two appearances out of the bullpen and got there in 3.1 and 3.2 innings, respectively. We are talking about a pitcher with a 26% K% on the season and a really good 13% SwStr%. He should be stretched out, too, so I don't worry too much about the pitch count limiting his chances here. This is a guy who can strike out five hitters against any team in the majors. He's that talented.
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More MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jordan Montgomery OVER 17.5 OUTS (-145 DraftKings)
I am not going to try and get cute with Jordan Montgomery and his strikeout prop today. As much as I like his chances at six against a very K-heavy Minnesota lineup, Monty is simply not a strikeout pitcher and I am not falling into the trap of betting against the Twins for Ks every day.
What I do think we can wager on here is Montgomery's ability to pitch deep into games. He's coming off an eight-inning shutout of the Diamondbacks, which extended his six-inning (or more) to seven straight starts.
His control has been excellent as he's walked just four hitters in his last three starts. He's been as good as advertised since arriving in Texas, too, as he has pitched really well since coming over at the deadline. I think he will keep his streak going today and go 6+ effective innings against the Twins.
Yusei Kikuchi UNDER 1.5 EARNED RUNS (+110 DraftKings)
I had some success attacking the Guardians with another Toronto lefty yesterday as Hyun Jin Ryu held them under 5.5 hits. The books are getting sharper when it comes to Cleveland's ineptitude against lefties, however, and they dropped all of Yusei Kikuchi's numbers quite a bit today.
By the way, the Guardians' wRC+ against LHP now stands at just 44 over the last 30 days -- that number is just baffling! Meanwhile, Kikuchi has been really good lately as well, holding opponents to just one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts.
Luis Castillo to EARN A WIN (+105 DraftKings)
I have no interest in the strikeout angles here with Luis Castillo as I have been wrong for going under on the last two Seattle pitches on the last two nights. The Royals are clearly overmatched in this series and have the unfortunate task of trying to slow down one of the hottest teams in all of baseball. Seattle just keeps getting it done with the bats lately, which has led to their amazing month of August as they already had a really effective rotation.
Castillo is in good form and has won four of his last five starts. He even picked up a win against these Royals two weeks ago when he didn't pitch that well (nine hits, four earned runs) as he still went seven innings and got enough run support for the win. The Mariners are almost -300 favorites to win today, so the fact we are getting their ace at plus odds to pick up that win feels like an excellent value.
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