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Tommy Bell here, back in another pinch-hitting role after my return from hiatus on Monday. Admittedly, it was a less-than-ideal showing. Colin Rea pitched the game of his life against what looked to be a lifeless Mets offense (sometimes I wonder if being a Mets fan would be WORSE than being a Pirates fan... Too far?), Luis Castillo twirled seven innings despite some early hard-hit contact, and Matt McLain had a rare 0-for-4 day against a lefty while fighting through a lengthy rain delay (then shoved it in our faces with a double and a homer on Tuesday).
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The lone winner on Monday was the Over on Luis Robert Jr.'s total base prop. He homered again. And hey, that was a plus-money wager, so I guess it could have been worse. Stick with me, RotoBallers. Let's see if we can get back on track today. It's a rare evening-heavy slate for a Wednesday, as we have just two afternoon games and 13 evening tilts. In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. You can find me on Twitter for any questions, comments, or general banter at @BellRoto. Let's get to it!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Joey Wentz UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)
Joey Wentz has eclipsed 4.2 innings pitched in each of his last two outings (both against a struggling Minnesota Twins offense), but prior to those he had a stretch of six straight starts without qualifying for a win. Now he heads on the road to face one of the most dangerous offenses in the league in the Texas Rangers who own the second-best wOBA against lefties at .363 while striking out just 20.8% of the time.
There's a pretty good chance that Wentz gets yanked before the end of the 5th inning, but even if he makes it through five, I trust this balanced Rangers offense to have strong at-bats and put the ball in play. Wentz has recorded five or more strikeouts in just five of his 14 starts so far in 2023. I don't foresee Texas treating him well tonight.
Zach Davies OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105 DraftKings)
Zach Davies has been one of the worst starters in the league to this point, sporting a 4.76 xFIP through eight starts in 2023. Things don't get any easier for him on Wednesday, as the Tampa Bay Rays come to town with their second-best .345 wOBA against righties and quite possibly the deepest lineup in the league right now. There are no breaks 1-9 in this batting order.
Davies has not been able to get past the 4th inning in any of his last three outings, yet he still managed to allow six, nine, and six hits respectively. I also like the Over on 2.5 earned runs here, which is juiced up to -145 for a reason. After the Rays put up five hits and four earned runs against one of the best pitchers in the league Zac Gallen last night, I don't see a world in which this lesser Zach keeps Tampa at bay on Wednesday (yes... pun intended).
JP Sears OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
Not much has been going right for the Oakland Athletics these days, but JP Sears has quietly racked up swings and misses in his last few outings. The southpaw twirled seven frames in each of his last two starts and has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four.
The Yankees are struggling at the plate. That's it... That's the Tweet.
Despite rolling out a bunch of right-handed bats most nights, New York is still in the top 10 in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers (23.6%). When you look at the boom/bust hitters that make up their squad, it's easy to see Sears continuing his solid stretch of pitching even if his bullpen eventually blows up late.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Anthony Santander OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+115 DraftKings)
This one checks all of the boxes. Anthony Santander has been red-hot at the plate. Prior to last night's hit-less showing, the outfielder was 8-for-17 with three homers, five runs, and five RBI in a four-game stretch. The 28-year-old loves to rake in the confines of his own home park, and it should be in the 80s and humid in Baltimore this evening.
Meanwhile, right-hander Luke Weaver has been a hard-hit machine for the Reds, allowing line drives and barreled fly balls in bunches in his last few outings. With Cedric Mullins and Adley Rutschman batting ahead of him, there should be plenty of RBI chances for Santander to eclipse this number early.
Trea Turner OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-160 DraftKings)
The Phillies' offense is starting to wake up, and with that comes one of the most dynamic offensive players in the game - Trea Turner. The All-Star shortstop has recorded at least one hit and RBI in each of his last four games. That's a good sign for the two-hitter, especially because we know how good Turner is at scoring runs when he gets on base as well.
This number is juicy, but Drew Smyly is exactly the type of contact-prone pitcher I like to pick on with a prop like this. Turner should get five at-bats to get us two hits, and maybe he won't even need to do that if guys around him like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Bryce Harper do their jobs.
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