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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! If you've been around a while, you'll have recognized my name from years past. I've been writing for many sports on and off again for almost 10 years, and I'm excited to be able to spend some time this summer getting back in the swing of things. For today, that means pinch-hitting with some hitter/pitcher props in the MLB realm. Let's get to it!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, June 26, 2023. You can find me on Twitter for any questions, comments, or general banter at @BellRoto. Let's start the week off strong despite a short six-game slate.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Colin Rea UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-145 on DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers starter Colin Rea will head to Citi Field to take on the Mets on Monday night. We have a few different angles that could lead us to a shorter outing for him tonight. First, we should have some humid, hitter-friendly conditions. Assuming no delays, balls will carry more, which could lead to a crooked number early, resulting in some bullpen action before the end of the 5th inning. A separate but related angle is the idea that a delay could come into play due to thunderstorms in the area. A lengthy delay could result in the starters being pulled early, and while it's a cheap way to cash, the money counts all the same!
The angle we can hang our hat on the most, though, is that Rea has eclipsed the 90-pitch mark just once in his 12 starts so far this year. He's consistently been taken out after five innings if he's anywhere near 85-90 pitches. As such, we need the Mets to extend at-bats and make the 32-year-old work for his outs. After the Mets blew their 6-3 lead in the 8th inning last night, I'd imagine every hitter will be hyper-focused on putting forth a good showing for their home fans. The number is a bit juicy, but Rea is a pitcher we can pick on, and New York is in a great bounce-back position to make the right-hander throw extra pitches early and often. I'm betting we see the bullpen by the time the 6th frame comes around.
Luis Castillo UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-155 on DrafKings)
With the short slate, some unpredictable weather, and some volatile pitchers that I usually steer clear of, there admittedly wasn't a whole lot to choose from after the Rea prop above, but I felt I needed to give the people one more "lean" to hang their hats on for Monday. This one also comes in the form of an Outs Recorded Under, and it's simply a numbers play with some value baked in.
The Washington Nationals will finish off their west coast swing against the Mariners these next three days. They'll look to keep up the success they found in taking two of three games from the Padres over the weekend. Led by Lane Thomas and Jeimer Candelario, this Nats squad has found a little offense of late. Pair that with the fact that Luis Castillo has only seen the 7th inning once in his last eight starts, having walked 10 batters combined in his last two starts, and we have a number that should be more like -200 sitting at -155.
I understand if your stomach can't handle betting on the Nationals' offense to find some sort of success, but I'll bank on this young, gritty offense to grind out some at-bats and force the Mariners to turn to their bullpen for the last three innings. So long as Castillo doesn't spin a gem, this one will cash.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Matt McLain OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 on DraftKings)
Lefty Cole Irvin will start in Baltimore for the Orioles on Monday as they welcome in visiting Cincinnati, and if there's one thing I've loved about the Reds this season, it's been backing their offense against Southpaws. Rookie Matt McLain has quickly become a catalyst for the exciting Cincy lineup, and he's been red hot in recent days, homering twice over the weekend and racking up hits in bunches.
McLain has an incredible .432 wOBA against LHPs so far in his young career, and even better for this prop is the fact that he's yet to walk in 40 at-bats against lefties. An early double in the gap cashes this one with ease. But even if he stumbles out of the gate, I expect the 23-year-old middle infielder to get five chances at this. Keep swinging that lumber, young man!
Luis Robert Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+125 on DraftKings)
Let's pick on another lefty! Reid Detmers gets plenty of strikeouts when he's on, but he's also known for hanging a breaking ball or two... Enter Luis Robert Jr.
On top of his impressive three-homer weekend against the Red Sox, Robert has struck out just once in his last five games while recording only one walk in that span as well (16 at-bats). That's perfect for a prop like this. No walks, no strikeouts, just balls in play. And when this strong 25-year-old outfielder puts balls in play, good things happen. I like Robert to hit a double in the gap at some point in this game, but if he happens to keep up this home run streak we'll gladly take that too.
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