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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/1/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. This is my favorite article at RotoBaller, and I hope I have provided you with different ways to bet throughout the season. I have officially given up on the Yankees, so we will attack them today in the Bronx. We will wrap up with a healthy Astros team and hope to sweep the day.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Yankees
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TB (-112)
TB: Zach Eflin | NYY: Carlos Rodon
We start our action today in New York with a matchup between the Rays and the Yankees. I will officially say I have given up on the Yankees. I was the biggest believer in this team to start the season, but I have had enough. They continue to be a disappointment. They have fallen to four games back of the wild card and are dead last in the AL East.
Carlos Rodon gets the rock for the Yanks today. He enters today's start with a 5.86 SIERA, 16.7% K%, and a 1.38 WHIP. He has yet to find any form since his return from the IL. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball against left-hand pitching this season. They own a 119 wRC+, .336 wOBA, and a .457 SLG.
Zach Eflin has been one of the biggest surprises this season. The Rays are truly a factory of resurging arms into elite form. Eflin enters today's start with a 3.38 SIERA, 25.2% K%, and a 1.02 WHIP. The Yankees are a bottom-ten team in baseball against right-hand pitching. They own a 92 wRC+, a .303 wOBA, and a .399 SLG. I believe the Rays have the upper hand on the bump and at the plate tonight. With the line being close to even money, the Rays are among the best bets on the board.
Pick: Rays moneyline (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Astros
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: HOU (-192)
CLE: Gavin Williams | HOU: Framber Valdez
Gavin Williams will toe the rubber against Framber Valdez in our last bet of the day. This may be the first time all season that the Astros lineup is finally healthy. The top five in this lineup is deadly. When they trout out Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker, Yordon Alvarez, and Alex Bregman to start a game, this team is hard to beat. Chas McCormick is red hot, and the Astros are finding their groove at the right time.
They will also be sending their ace Framber Valdez to the mound tonight. Valdez owns a 3.45 SIERA, 26.0% K% and a 1.14 WHIP. His opponent, the Cleveland Guardians, is a bottom-five team in baseball against left-hand pitching. They own an 87 wRC+, a .297 wOBA, and a .378 SLG. They have been dreadful against the split.
Gavin Williams has had his ups and downs this season. The underlying numbers show that, frankly, he isn’t very good. He starts today with a 5.09 SIERA, 19.7% K%, and a 1.30 WHIP. He now faces the gauntlet of the Houston Astros, who have six guys slugging over .500 against right-hand pitching in July. This game could get out of hand, so I don’t mind the ladder on the run lines. For now, let’s roll with the Astors -1.5.
Pick: Astros -1.5 run line (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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