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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/9/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We've reached the final day of baseball before the MLB All-Star break starts on Monday. As such, we could see some veterans get an extra day of rest, some bullpens get pushed to their brink with a handful of days off to follow, and typically some wild results on a day like this in which teams can be in different places mentally. With that in mind, we'll try to find two or three really strong spots to attack in today's MLB betting board. Let's get to it!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, July 9, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BellRoto for all things MLB banter.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR -130
TOR: Chris Bassitt | DET: Tarik Skubal
Let's head out to Comerica Park in Detroit where the Toronto Blue Jays will look to bounce back after the Tigers threw a combined no-hitter on Saturday afternoon. Matt Manning made it 6.2 innings before setup man Jason Foley threw 1.1 frames and Alex Lange closed out the ninth. The Blue Jays' offense fell asleep 24 hours after a barrage of 12 runs on Friday night. George Springer and company will look to get back on track in their final game of the first half of the season.
Lefty Tarik Skubal will make his second start of the year, as he spun four great innings in his debut on Tuesday against the A's. The Blue Jays coming off an embarrassing effort should provide a much tougher outing for the 26-year-old, and their lineup is built for attacking southpaws. Foley and Lange have also shown some vulnerability when pitching in back-to-back days, so Toronto gets a sizable bullpen advantage in this one.
Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the Blue Jays, and he's been finding a nice groove of late. A 3.82 xFIP with over a strikeout per inning and a 44% ground ball rate since the start of June are all encouraging trends for the 34-year-old veteran starter. The Tigers rank 28th in wOBA against RHPs this season, so Bassitt should be able to get the ball to his rested bullpen in the seventh frame.
Meanwhile, I'd be surprised to see Skubal exceed five innings this early in his return. All signs point to the Blue Jays getting their 50th win of the season on Sunday afternoon, and I think this line should be closer to -165 in favor of Toronto.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-130) - DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA -120
PHI: Aaron Nola | MIA: Jesus Luzardo
Heading down to Miami, we may have another bullpen advantage to exploit. Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk should both be unavailable for the Marlins after pitching in each of the past two nights. Meanwhile, the Phillies will look to win this divisional matchup and get to 49 wins on the season with a rested bullpen and their ace on the mound.
Aaron Nola has had his share of struggles so far in 2023, which seem to be stemming from too many long balls and a decreased strikeout rate. However, he's coming off an absolute gem against the Rays on Tuesday in which he struck out 12 batters in 7.1 innings, allowing one run on a solo shot.
The Marlins have been lethal against lefties this year, but they still rank just 21st in wOBA against right-handers on the season. We're banking on Nola to go six strong, allowing two runs or less here to give the bullpen a chance to win it for Philly.
Miami's starter is no slouch, however, as they trot out lefty Jesus Luzardo, who has thrown three straight scoreless outings heading into this start. You'd have to think some regression will come eventually for the talented 25-year-old, whose xFIP was 3.72 last time out with five hits and two walks against St. Louis.
The Phillies will need to improve on their 25.3% strikeout rate against LHPs in this one if they want to scratch a few across against Luzardo. Their collection of right-handed hitters behind Kyle Schwarber should be able to get the job done to win the series against the team just above them in the NL East standings.
Among other factors, I'll take the rested bullpen and more proven pitcher in a huge divisional tilt as underdogs on Sunday afternoon. Even though they're on the road, the Phillies should feel (and capitalize on) the importance of this final game heading into the All-Star break.
Pick: Phillies ML (+100) - DraftKings Sportsbook
**Extra Leans: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-120), Cincinnati Reds F5 ML (+110), Chicago White Sox F5 (-130)**
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