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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/10/24. Use Brenton's free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets to win big.
As usual, we have a hefty dose of afternoon baseball on tap as it's a getaway day in the world of Major League Baseball!
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I'll be here all season long handing out free MLB picks for Wednesday baseball as we look to carve out some value each and every week. Today, we'll take a look at some evening games on Wednesday, April 10, as we look to pad those bankrolls! Feel free to follow me on Twitter/X @BKemp17 and chat about some baseball throughout the season!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CIN -135
MIL: Wade Miley | CIN: Hunter Greene
It's an NL Central tilt tonight in Cincinnati as the Reds play host to the visiting Milwaukee Brewers.
For the Brewers, veteran Wade Miley will get the ball for his first start of the season, fresh off the injured list. The left-hander has dealt with a shoulder injury this spring and recently maxed out at just 50 pitches in his final Triple-A rehab start, meaning he will not get deep into the ball game. Expect a good chunk of the Brewers bullpen in this one.
Miley has been rock-solid in each of the last three seasons, tossing an ERA well below the 4.00 mark over that time. At the same time, the Brewers' bullpen was among the best in baseball last season as their 3.40 ERA ranked second in the league, even if their 4.02 FIP tied for ninth. This is nothing new, of course, as the Brewers have long boasted one of the league's strongest bullpens.
The Reds will send prized right-hander Hunter Greene to the bump for Wednesday's matchup as he looks to build on a strong start to his season. The flame thrower has allowed just three earned runs across 10 2/3 innings of work, good for a 2.53 ERA. He has struck out a healthy 13 hitters in that time, albeit he has also walked five.
Nonetheless, it's an encouraging start for the former first-overall pick. Greene posted a 4.82 ERA in 22 starts last season but also a 3.74 SIERA alongside a quality 20.9% K-BB%. While he sports a career 4.53 ERA, his 3.53 SIERA is a full run below that figure. As a result, Greene is an attractive bounce-back candidate with positive regression seemingly on the horizon.
Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the league's top hitter's parks, but this pitching matchup spells a low-scoring affair. Let's look for the offenses to be held at bay in this one tonight.
Pick: Under 8.5 total runs (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY (-218)
MIA: Ryan Weathers | NYY: Marcus Stroman
It's an interleague contest tonight in the Bronx as the New York Yankees play host to the visiting Miami Marlins.
The Yankees are in search of a three-game sweep of the scuffling Marlins and are in good shape to do so behind veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman. Stroman has yet to allow an earned run across his first two starts of his Yankees career, and while that, of course, is unsustainable, he owns a 3.83 SIERA and has walked just three of the 48 batters he has faced on the season.
After a down 2023 season at the plate, the Yankees are off to a strong start in 2024 as their .335 wOBA ranks ninth in baseball entering Wednesday's action. Additionally, their 12.7% BB% is the best in baseball at the moment, something that could be a key factor in this one.
The sound of this Giancarlo Stanton grand slam + BatCast = 🤌 pic.twitter.com/NuqawqU977
— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 8, 2024
Why? Well, Marlins starter Ryan Weathers has walked at least 11.1% of the hitters he has faced in each of his last three MLB seasons. His 8.4% K-BB% for his career leaves plenty to be desired, as does his 5.78 ERA and 4.98 SIERA. The 24-year-old once boasted plenty of promise and is still quite young but has had very little success in recent seasons.
The Fish have struggled mightily at the plate this season, scoring just two runs through the first two games of this series. Their .258 wOBA is by far the worst mark in baseball at the moment, as is their .101 isolated power. There has been very little punch in these Marlins bats, and it doesn't get much easier against a cruising Stroman.
We'll look for the Yankees to pull out the brooms with authority in this one tonight.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 run line (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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