As mentioned yesterday, it's difficult to quantify what exactly in the age of Big Data constitutes a sleeper.

For purposes of this analysis, any player outside the top 100 who has potential to turn a significant profit relative to their ADP qualifies. Again, all ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyPros.

And be sure to check out more of our sleeper articles, which we've been churning out all preseason and will continue to crank out until the season starts.

 

National League Outfield Sleepers

Joc Pederson - OF, LAD

ADP: 169

Despite a second-half collapse, Pederson still hit 26 home runs and posted a 15.7% walk rate in his rookie season. Yes, the contact issues will continue to suppress his batting average. The lack of stolen bases (just four in 11 attempts) was a disappointing development as well. However, Pederson averaged 29 steals in his four minor league seasons and posted much higher Speed scores than he did in his first MLB campaign. With Don Mattingly out of the picture, Pederson should have a longer leash during the inevitable slumps that come with being a three true outcomes hitter.

Steamer projects another 26 homers, but also 14 steals and 87 runs. Even with a low batting average, that kind of category juice merits a top-30 outfield ranking, especially factoring in Pederson’s growth potential. Instead, he's currently the 42nd outfielder off the board, going 50 picks later than Gregory Polanco and 80 (!) picks later than the man he replaced as the Dodgers' center fielder, Matt Kemp.

 

Jorge Soler - OF, CHC

ADP: 171

Note: this article was published before Dexter Fowler signed with the Cubs, potentially affecting the playing time and fantasy value of all Cubs outfielders.

Soler got a cup of coffee with the Cubs in 2014. The then 22 year old Cuban phenom gave the Wrigley faithful and fantasy owners alike plenty to get excited about, slashing .292/.330/.573 with five homers in just 97 plate appearances. While his fantastic walk rates didn't carry over from the minors, the rest of his game sure did. Kris Bryant was a near-unanimous choice among prognosticators for NL Rookie of the Year honors - and he ultimately won a unanimous vote - but Soler got attention as a dark-horse candidate for the award. Unfortunately, he stumbled out of the gate and never really recovered, ultimately turning in an underwhelming .262/.324/.399 line with 10 homers in 101 games. His strikeouts spiked while his power disappeared, and he looked overmatched at times, particularly against breaking pitches. His 67.8% contact rate was 207th of 211 hitters with at least 400 PA, and his swinging strike percentage was higher than all but seven of those players. So the problem here isn't exactly hard to identify.

Despite the drastic reduction in power, Soler's batted ball data holds plenty of reason for optimism. We've established the contact issues, but when he did get wood on the ball, Soler generally crushed it. Nearly 28% of his batted balls were line drives, and his 35.9% hard-hit rate put him in the top 30 among everyday players. This would seem to support his .361 BABIP, which kept his production from completely cratering. Steamer anticipates some regression there, but also a rebound in his power and strikeout rate. Given the improvement Soler had already begun to show in his plate discipline in the second half and postseason, that seems like a smart bet.

 

Michael Conforto - OF, NYM

ADP: 230

Though he had fewer than 200 plate appearances above A-ball, the Mets were aggressive in promoting Conforto last July. Thrown into the fire of a pennant race, Conforto shined, putting together a .270/.335/.506 line with nine homers and 56 R+RBI in 56 games. The power was somewhat surprising, as his .236 ISO was well above the .165 mark he posted in his brief minor-league career. Conforto's junior season at Oregon State was a hitting clinic, as he posted a .345/.504/.547, but even that results in a lower ISO than his rookie season, as the slugging percentage was mainly driven by a high average.

So no, he's probably not going to maintain a 30 HR pace over a full season. As you might guess from his track record, though, he's a good bet to keep making hard contact. He produced a 22.6 LD% and a hard hit rate above 40% to go with solid plate discipline, so there's room to grow in the batting average department. Somewhere in the .280 - .290 range with 20 homers and what should be decent counting stats in a solid Mets lineup? Not a bad return in the late rounds, that.

 

Stephen Piscotty - OF, STL

ADP: 268

I've been more vocal to this point in support of his teammate Randal Grichuk, but Piscotty is going almost 100 picks later in drafts right now. He shouldn't be. Take a look at the batted ball distance leaderboards over at Baseball Heat Maps. There's Piscotty just outside the top 10, sandwiched between some guy named J.D. Martinez and the reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson. (Also Howie Kendrick, which...what?) Then consider that Piscotty posted this mark while hitting nearly 60 percent of his fly balls to the opposite field. Then note that Piscotty, per FanGraphs' Mike Podhorzer, posted a fairly remarkable .350 xBABIP.

Small sample size? Yes. Fluke? Maybe, but maybe not. Piscotty did make a conscious effort to alter his swing mechanics in the offseason in order to tap into more power. So far, at least, it appears to be working. Steamer is skeptical, of course, but that's based almost entirely on his good but not great minor league numbers. There's certainly enough upside here to justify taking a flier at the end of the draft.

 

Jayson Werth - OF, WAS

ADP: 307

Let's get the bad stuff out of the way. Werth is entering his age-37 season. He's averaged just 111 games per season since 2012 due to a variety of injuries. And 2015 was the worst season of his career. The end is nigh for my favorite active player, there can be no argument. Nothing gold can stay, after all.

That said, Werth was pretty awesome in the two seasons prior to 2015, hitting .304/.396/.491 with 41 homers, 19 steals, and 333 R+RBI in 276 games. Even last year, he maintained his typically excellent plate discipline and batted ball profile. The driving force behind his struggles last season, besides the usual injury issues, was a .253 BABIP, 72 points below his career rate. This was only the second time he'd ever posted a mark below .300, and the underlying numbers simply don't support it.

Werth is basically a lock to get hurt and miss time at this point. But for his current price tag, you can bet I'll be looking at his name at the end of drafts this year.

 

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