👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Outfield Sleepers For 2016: AL Edition

Like many fantasy writers, I've expressed reservations about what the term "sleeper" even means anymore. So let's quantify it for purposes of this article.

Any player outside the top 100 who has potential to turn a significant profit relative to their ADP qualifies. All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyPros.

Today we'll cover potential outfield bargains in the AL, and tomorrow we'll look at the Senior Circuit. Be sure to also check out more of our draft sleeper articles, which will continue to roll in until the season starts.

 

American League Outfield Sleepers

Adam Eaton - OF, CHW

ADP: 112

For your consideration:

Player ADP BA R RBI HR SB
Adam Eaton 112 0.287 98 56 14 18
Mookie Betts 20 0.291 92 77 18 21

 
The point here isn't that Eaton is Betts' equal. When you factor in things like age, injury history, and even team context, it's obvious why fantasy owners are betting big (sorry) on Mookie and letting Eaton fall into the middle rounds. But...well, those numbers are fairly similar. Similar enough that Eaton is arguably a better investment from a pure profit perspective.

Maybe you don't buy the power, given that Eaton hit only six homers in his first 928 MLB plate appearances. But just three of those 14 bombs were classified as "Just Enough" by HitTracker. While you're at it, take a look at the batted ball distance leaderboards over at Baseball Heat Maps and you'll see that Eaton and Betts had essentially identical marks. After his scorching second half (.904 OPS, eight homers, 13 steals), it's surprising that Eaton isn't getting more attention in early drafts.

 

Josh Reddick - OF, OAK

ADP: 207

Did you know that over the last four seasons, Josh Reddick is 24th among all outfielders in home runs? He's got more than Matt Holliday, Shin-Soo Choo, and Alex Gordon among others. Back in 2012, he hit 32 homers, stole 11 bases, and totaled 170 R+RBI. Last season, he went 20/10 with 144 R+RBI. Of course, the intervening years were injury-plagued and not very good, but Reddick obviously has the talent to be a fantasy asset.

What's interesting is that his strikeout rate has steadily decreased over that four-year span. In 2012, Reddick whiffed on 22.4% of his trips to the plate. Last season, exactly half that. The secret? He quit swinging so much, particularly early in the count and at pitches low and away. Pretty simple, huh? Assuming health - admittedly a tricky thing with him - Reddick offers pop and speed in the back half of the draft.

 

Steven Souza - OF, TB

ADP: 218

Had he not missed 50 games with finger and wrist injuries, Souza had a decent chance at a 20/20 season last year. Of course, that category juice also came saddled with a .225 average. Souza is a textbook three true outcomes hitter - he walked, struck out, or homered in just over 48 percent of his plate appearances as a rookie. Only nine players made less contact than Souza (minimum 400 PA). He obviously carries much more value in leagues that count OBP instead of AVG, but he's worth rostering even in standard leagues if you can absorb the latter. Power and speed combos aren't exactly easy to find after pick 200, after all. Particularly if you missed out on Reddick.

Steamer thinks Souza can cut down on the Ks. If he can do that and avoid the disabled list in 2016, he'll return a nice profit at his current price. Should you find yourself well-stocked with high-average hitters as the draft wears on, Souza would make a fine addition to your fake baseball team.

 

Delino DeShields - OF, TEX

ADP: 235

So DeShields is fast. Like, really fast. He isn't quite on Billy Hamilton's level - few mortals are - but like Hamilton, he has a 100 SB season on his minor league resume. And unlike Hamilton, he can actually hit a little. As a rookie, he posted a .261/.344/.374 line with 83 runs in 121 games. The OBP probably tipped you off as to his plate discipline; he maintained the double-digit walk rate he carried throughout his minor league career. He only stole 25 bases, true, but he was on a 50-steal pace before suffering a hamstring injury. 40-plus swipes are definitely on the table, along with 100 runs if he keeps his spot near the top of the Rangers lineup.

Stolen bases were more difficult to find on the waiver wire than usual last season. There's no guarantee that will continue, of course, but you might want to invest a little more in speed just in case. If you're going to do that though, why pay a premium for Hamilton, whose ADP is just inside the top 100? DeShields is barely a blip on the radar for most owners right now. Take advantage.

 

Aaron Hicks - OF, NYY

ADP: 289

Hicks was dealt from the Twins to the Yankees back in November. Though Hicks was a first round pick and a well-regarded prospect, he's 26 years old and hasn't amounted to much in the majors yet. He'll also start the year as New York's fourth outfielder. So why are we talking about him? Well, he managed to hit 11 homers and steal 13 bases in only 390 plate appearances last year, for one. He did that while shaving eight points off of his K% and maintaining a solid walk rate. Oh, and this all came against increased quality of competition. Now he's moving from Target Field to Yankee Stadium, which could give him a further boost in the power department.

As for his path to playing time? Jacoby Ellsbury has missed an average of 54 games per season this decade and turns 33 in September. Carlos Beltran will 39 in April and has missed his fair share of time over the last few seasons as well. He's also declined defensively, against lefties, and on the bases. Hicks happens to grade out well in all of those areas. Then consider Joe Girardi's affinity for playing matchups, and it's not hard at all to envision Hicks cobbling together enough plate appearances to be relevant in most formats. He likely won't even be drafted in most leagues.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Merrill Kelly

to Make his Season Debut on Tuesday
Tatsuya Imai

Going on 15-Day Injured List With Arm Fatigue
CFB

Tramell Jones Jr. Outperforms Aaron Philo During Florida's Spring Scrimmage
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
CFB

Keelon Russell Flashes in Alabama's Spring Game
Ty Gibbs

Holds off the Field for His First Cup Series Victory at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Earns His First Runner-Up Finish at Bristol
Kyle Larson

Dominant Performance At Bristol Falls Short of Victory
Tyler Reddick

Matches his Career-Best Finish at Bristol
Alex Bowman

Crashes Early at Bristol in Return From Injury
NFL

Relatively Unproven Jadarian Price Could Shine in a Featured Role
NFL

Chris Bell a High-Risk/High-Reward Gamble
DeVonta Smith

Shakeup in Philadelphia Could Lead to a DeVonta Smith Breakout
Derik Queen

has 30-Point, 22-Rebound Season Finale
Woody Marks

Likely to Settle into a Complementary Role
Ryan Nembhard

Sets Rookie Assist Record
Carlos Ulberg

Is The New Light Heavyweight Champion
Cade Cunningham

Records 14 Assists Sunday
Jiří Procházka

Jiri Prochazka Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
NFL

Should Eli Stowers Be the First Tight End Selected in Dynasty Rookie Drafts?
Milwaukee Bucks

Doc Rivers Departs as Bucks Head Coach
Azamat Murzakanov

Suffers His First Loss
Dylan Harper

Suffers Thumb Injury in Finale
Paulo Costa

Wins Back-to-Back Fights
Immanuel Quickley

Leaves Finale with Hamstring Issue
Cooper Flagg

Exits Finale with Ankle Injury
Curtis Blaydes

Drops Decision At UFC 327
Josh Hokit

Remains Unbeaten
Chris Kreider

Posts Two Assists in Overtime Loss
Marco Rossi

Gives Canucks Rare Victory
Nico Hischier

Records 30th Three-Point Game
Adam Fantilli

Nets 24th Goal of the Season
Lane Hutson

Reaches Historic Record With Two Assists Sunday
Connor McMichael

Picks Up Three Points Sunday
Collin Sexton

Cleared to Play Sunday
Mark Williams

Sits Season Finale
Jalen Green

Out For Season Finale
LeBron James

Active for Season Finale
Draymond Green

Won't Play Sunday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Will Play Vs. Spurs
Stephon Castle

Available For Season Finale
Devin Vassell

Ready for Regular-Season Finale
Victor Wembanyama

Ruled Out for Regular-Season Finale
Christian Yelich

Brewers Expecting "Bad News" on Christian Yelich
Charlie McAvoy

Among Bruins Players Resting Sunday
Thomas Chabot

Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot Resting Against Devils
Brady Tkachuk

Tim Stutzle Won't Play Sunday
Radko Gudas

Could Return Sunday
Cutter Gauthier

Expected to Return Sunday
Noah Dobson

to Undergo Re-Evaluation in Two Weeks
Quentin Johnston

Presented with Opportunity for More Volume
Travis Kelce

Worth Trading Ahead of Potential Retirement Tour
Jalen Coker

Does Jalen Coker Have Weekly Fantasy Appeal Going Forward?
DJ Moore

Is DJ Moore the Top Fantasy Receiver in Buffalo?
Derrick Henry

Still an RB1 in Fantasy Football?
Edwin Díaz

Dodgers Monitoring Edwin Diaz's Velocity
Jarquez Hunter

Can Jarquez Hunter Rebound from a Forgettable Rookie Season?
Ladd McConkey

Can Ladd McConkey Recapture Rookie-Season Magic?
Ryan Flournoy

Faces a Hard Path to Fantasy Relevance Despite Year 2 Flashes
Bryce Young

Entering Prove-it Territory
Devaughn Vele

Will Devaughn Vele See a Larger Role in Second Season with Saints?
Kevin Durant

to Rest on Sunday
Zion Williamson

to Remain Out on Sunday
Anthony Edwards

is Resting During Regular-Season Finale
Devin Booker

Won't Suit up on Sunday
DeMar DeRozan

to Miss Third Straight Game
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar A Worthy DFS Option for Bristol Lineups?
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Be A Solid DFS Option for Bristol Lineups?
Sam Antonacci

Slated to Make MLB Debut on Tuesday
Josh Manson

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Noah Dobson

Injures Left Hand in Loss
Frank Nazar

Exits Loss Early After Taking Puck to Face
Andrew Mangiapane

Labeled Day-to-Day
Brady Tkachuk

Exits Early Saturday
Rasmus Sandin

Hurt in Saturday's Win
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Jonathan Taylor

Back to High-End RB1 Tier with QB Returning?
Jahmyr Gibbs

a Real Threat to Bounce Back as the RB1?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba the WR1 in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Keon Coleman

Can Keon Coleman be Dropped in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Does Chris Rodriguez Jr. Fill a Need for Jacksonville?
Darnell Washington

Lacks Ties to New Coaching Staff
Mickey Moniak

has Multi-Homer Game in San Diego
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Leaves Early on Saturday With Knee Tightness
Jake Oettinger

Shuts Out the Rangers
Steven Stamkos

Scores his 40th Goal of the Year
Noah Schultz

White Sox to Promote Top Pitching Prospect Noah Schultz
Tyler Soderstrom

Slugs Two Home Runs in Win Over Mets
Adley Rutschman

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Ankle Inflammation
George Springer

Suffers Fractured Toe on Saturday
Gabriel Moreno

Likely Headed to Injured List
Juan Soto

Could Return for Next Homestand
Corbin Carroll

Officially Back in Saturday's Lineup
Max Muncy

Hits Three Homers, Including Walk-Off Blast
Gavin Sheets

Goes Yard Twice, Including Walk-Off Round-Tripper
Corbin Carroll

Expected to Start on Saturday
Wyatt Langford

Forced From Friday's Game With Quad Tightness
Kris Bubic

Dominates White Sox With 11 Strikeouts on Friday
Royce Lewis

Headed for Injured List
Carlos Ulberg

A Slight Underdog
Jiří Procházka

Jiri Prochazka Can Become UFC Champion Again
Paulo Costa

Makes his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Unbeaten
Josh Hokit

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Curtis Blaydes

A Favorite At UFC 327
Tyrrell Hatton

a Steady Option at The Masters
Justin Thomas

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Masters
PGA

Sungjae Im a Volatile Option at the Masters
Nicolai Hojgaard

Carrying Momentum Into The Masters
Si Woo Kim

in Strong Form Heading to The Masters
Chris Gotterup

Ready to Make His Masters Debut
Patrick Reed

Brings Momentum to The Masters
Jon Rahm

Looks Poised for His Second Green Jacket
Adam Scott

Form Points to Him Competing at Masters
Jordan Spieth

Finding Consistency Heading to Masters
Hideki Matsuyama

Trending In Right Direction For Masters
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF