RADIO
Just like that, the 2023 NFL season is officially underway. There were quite a few unexpected performances in Week 1 and plenty of devastating injuries. As we head into Week 2, it's important to relax and not get too overwhelmed reading into everything that just happened. Fantasy players always tend to overreact to numbers and utilization early on in the season.
Because of this, we can gain an edge by sending out some trade offers that capitalize on the players who outperformed expectations and those who underachieved in Week 1. Many factors can contribute to fantasy output in a given week, so we'll be analyzing what transpired and projecting what could happen going forward.
If you tuned in last season, you may be familiar with the structure here. But if not, welcome! I'll be diving into two players that may be a bit overvalued after one week of solid production as well as two players that got off to a disappointing start but should rebound in the coming weeks. Be sure to check back every Wednesday morning throughout the season as I'll have a fresh batch of trade candidates to discuss. Without further ado, let's look into some players to target this week.
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Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
As I'm sure you're aware, Tee Higgins finished with exactly zero fantasy points in Week 1. This was not quite what was expected of a wide receiver drafted inside the top 20 at the position in the third round of fantasy drafts. To make matters worse, this was not the first time that Higgins was active in a game and failed to score a single point. He did so twice in 2022.
Of course, Higgins was injured going into both of these contests last season. But the result left a bad taste in the mouths of many fantasy managers nonetheless. Perhaps it's more concerning that Higgins flopped despite being fully healthy to start the 2023 campaign. Truthfully, this was a game to forget for Cincinnati's offense in its entirety. Fantasy gamers should try to do exactly that and disregard what happened during Sunday's divisional showdown.
For starters, the Bengals' matchup with the Browns marked the first NFL action Joe Burrow had seen since straining his calf in late July. There should generally be no excuses made for franchise quarterbacks who are healthy enough to play, but the highest-paid player in NFL history definitely looked rusty. He threw for just 82 yards on a rain-soaked Cleveland field and posted a miserable QBR of 20.3.
As a result, no Bengals weapons succeeded for fantasy purposes. Ja'Marr Chase disappointed with five catches for 39 yards and was by far the team's most productive pass-catcher.
It may be difficult to see the positives in a zero-reception performance, but there were indeed a few. Higgins earned eight targets, mostly comprised of inaccurate passes and 50/50 balls from Burrow, and played on 95% of the team's offensive snaps. Furthermore, he was frequently his quarterback's first read and just barely trailed the aforementioned Chase in that metric.
The final silver lining is that all of this occurred against a Cleveland defense that surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game last season. Higgins was unlikely to have a big game even if the weather was perfect and Burrow picked up right where he left off in 2022.
Better days are ahead for Higgins, Chase, Burrow, and the entirety of the Bengals' offense. All of them are worthwhile trade targets this week. Higgins will probably be the easiest to acquire given his fantasy draft capital and his prior disappearing acts that may have left fantasy managers scarred.
Expect him to bounce back against the Baltimore Ravens, who struggled against opposing wideouts last year and allowed respectable showings to two Texans receivers in C.J. Stroud's NFL debut.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
James Cook was a polarizing player coming into the season, commonly selected in the sixth round of fantasy drafts with many passing on his talents due to concerns with size and usage. As a rookie, Cook saw the field sparingly and operated purely as a change-of-pace back with Devin Singletary leading the way.
Fears about Cook's size are still valid as the Georgia product is small for a running back, but questions about his utilization this season have already been answered.
On Monday night, Cook was unleashed as the clear-cut RB1 in Buffalo. He was the first back to take the field and the first to record a touch while veterans Damien Harris and Latavius Murray were hardly involved. His six targets were the second-most on the team, trailing only Stefon Diggs.
It was anticipated in the offseason that either Harris or Murray would, at the very least, receive the bulk of the work near the goal line. The Bills struggled offensively in Week 1 and had very few looks near the end zone, but it should be noted that Harris was the only running back to touch the ball inside the 10-yard line. Even if Harris maintains this role throughout the season, Cook's usage everywhere else on the field was prevalent enough to render him a valuable fantasy asset.
Sure, Cook's 16 opportunities didn't translate to a ton of fantasy production. That's exactly what makes him a buy-low trade candidate this week. The Jets have one of the best defenses in the league, so it's not surprising that Cook and the rest of Buffalo's offense didn't explode to open the season.
A much more inviting matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders is on tap for Week 2, which could give Cook the breakout opportunity we've all been waiting for. The Raiders allowed the fourth-most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing running backs in 2022.
In a pass-happy offense, Cook may not get the touches required to be a top-12 fantasy RB, but he certainly seems poised to outproduce his draft-day ADP. Try to sneak him onto your roster as an RB3 before it's too late.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
As one of the biggest surprises of Week 1, Tyler Allgeier scored as the fantasy RB4, both out-touching and outproducing rookie sensation Bijan Robinson. Allgeier figures to have a key role in Atlanta's run-heavy offense going forward, but I think it still might be wise to capitalize on his strong start to the season.
The Falcons hosted the Panthers on Sunday and were able to control the game with solid defense and turnover-free offense. Head coach Arthur Smith has proven time and time again that the rushing attack will be the priority in Atlanta, so I don't expect that to change. The team's upcoming matchups, however, may dictate some adjustments.
In Week 2, Atlanta will face the Packers, who looked nearly unstoppable on offense with Jordan Love at the helm. Next, contests against two high-powered offenses in the Lions and Jaguars await. Again, the Falcons put a solid defensive effort on display against Carolina, but this was against a rookie quarterback in his first NFL start. Their defense may be improved compared to what it was in 2022 but this is unlikely to be a top-half unit.
If Atlanta is forced into more passing situations, Robinson will see a greater share of opportunities. An extremely skilled receiving back, Robinson ran 17 routes to Allgeier's 10 and saw six targets from Desmond Ridder in Week 1. And come on, did you see his first career touchdown? How do you keep this guy off the field?
In all seriousness, Allgeier will undoubtedly finish the season as one of the biggest steals on draft day and offers weekly flex consideration for the time being. Just don't be surprised if Robinson, the eighth overall pick in April's NFL Draft, sees more and more touches as the season goes on and becomes the focal point of the offense in more competitive games. Allgeier's value could be at its peak right now following a huge two-touchdown season debut.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Almost one year ago today, I wrote about Michael Thomas as a sell-high candidate heading into Week 2 of the 2022 campaign. I'm not going to victory lap a prediction I made last year, but I will rehash some of the same points that I made then.
After two consecutive top-24 weeks, Thomas suffered a toe injury during Week 3 of last season and missed the next 14 games. He has appeared in just 11 games since the start of the 2020 season. The 30-year-old former All-Pro stated this offseason that his body had rejected the hardware involved in the multiple surgeries he underwent throughout his career. By all accounts, he's fully healthy right now and looking to return to form. To be fair, we heard the same thing last year.
Injury concerns aside, Thomas is now facing more target competition than ever in New Orleans. Rashid Shaheed showed off his abilities as a deep threat in Week 1 and much has been made about the chemistry between quarterback Derek Carr and tight end Juwan Johnson. Most importantly, second-year wideout Chris Olave is the real deal.
Thomas became a fantasy star from 2016 to 2019 as the Saints' primary target. At best, he'll be the number two option for Carr this season and will have to worry about Alvin Kamara getting looks as a receiver when he returns from suspension in a few weeks.
Considering where you probably drafted Thomas, you may not want to give him up yet since he didn't have a huge Week 1. I can't blame you if you choose to hold and wait for a bigger showing. I do think there are some fantasy managers that would trade for Thomas based on name value and the fact that he turned eight targets into five receptions for 61 yards in his first game back.
If he stays healthy, he will absolutely remain a WR3 or flex option for most of the season. I would prefer to package him with another player to upgrade at a position while I still can.
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