Fantasy Football Tight Ends: Stats, Sleepers, and Surprises You Need to Know (Week 5)

October 8, 2026

Rob breaks down the fantasy football tight end landscape in 2026 by looking at snaps played, routes run, and targets earned to provide you with in-depth information about who to trust in Week 5.

The tight end position is off to one of its hottest starts in recent memory and shows few signs of slowing down. With the rise of 12-personnel and the multitude of receiver injuries, tight ends are an integral part of NFL offenses.

However, a four-game sample size is still relatively small. Small sample sizes can create a lot of noise, both good and bad. While the production is a good place to start, looking beyond the box score is crucial to decipher whether a player's hot start will continue or a breakout game is on the horizon.

This article will do just that. We'll be breaking down snap counts, routes run, and targets earned. Even so, those stats can lie sometimes, as blowouts or overtime games can skew them, so we'll also look at snap, route, and target share. Together, we'll get a much clearer view on which tight ends are worth betting on and which ones we should be selling.

Michael Mayer is Legit

Because of Brock Bowers, fantasy managers are overlooking Mayer. I get it; very rarely does a team have two fantasy-relevant tight ends. However, the Las Vegas offense is perfectly suited for exactly that. When you look at their receiving depth chart of Jalen Nailor, Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Cody White, it becomes painfully obvious why.

White is a former undrafted free agent out of the 2020 draft class. Bech is on IR. Nailor is in his fifth year, and he's never surpassed 450 yards. He's finished with more than 200 yards only twice. Tucker is in his fourth year and has never surpassed 700 yards. It's the weakest receiver room in the NFL.

Mayer is the TE16 through four weeks, averaging 8.22 half-PPR PPG. He's run the seventh-most routes (115) and has the eighth-highest route share (75.7%). He's tied for 11th in targets (23) and is 14th in target share (16.0%). He's also eighth in snap share (85.4%). He's put the strong utilization to good use as well.

Through four weeks, he's eighth in receptions (20) and 11th in yards (169). He's currently on pace for 98 targets, 85 receptions, and 718 yards. Only eight tight ends had more than 98 targets last year. Just two had more than 85 receptions, and only eight had more than 718 yards. Now, I know what you're thinking: "But Brock Bowers didn't play Weeks 1 and 2!" So, let's look at Weeks 3 and 4, shall we? In Weeks 3 and 4, here's where Mayer ranks:

• Sixth in Snap Share (88.7%)
• Fifth in Routes Run (67)
• 10th in Route Share (75.3%)
• 11th in Targets (13)
• 18th in Target Share (14.1%)
• Seventh in Receptions (11)
• Seventh in Yards (114)
• Eighth in Half-PPR PPG (11.45)

While a two-game sample is incredibly small, it was encouraging to see Mayer's snap share and route share stay as strong as they did despite Bowers' return. He maintained an elite snap share and an excellent route share. With little target competition behind Bowers, Mayer will remain an important part of their offense.

If you're ignoring or overlooking Mayer because Bowers is on the same team, don't. Stop it right now. The Raiders have just one receiver averaging more than three targets per game, and they're 11th in pass attempts and ninth in passing yards. I don't expect that to stick, but they're also first in passing touchdowns.

This offense has enough volume and production to support two fantasy-relevant pass-catchers, even if one is an alpha like Bowers. Right now, the team's clear No. 2 pass-catcher is Mayer, and there's little reason to expect that to change. Mayer is a high-end TE2 with potential league-winning upside if Bowers misses any more time with that knee injury.

Kyle Pitts Sr. is a "Must" Drop

We're going to keep this real short and sweet. If you're holding onto Pitts hoping for a resurgence or anything close to what we saw last year, stop. The Falcons are in 12-personnel on 30.9% of their plays. In Weeks 3 and 4, when Michael Penix Jr. started at quarterback, that slightly increased to 31.1%.

Kyle Pitts Sr. May No Longer Be Worth Rostering in Shallower Leagues

https://t.co/vBsxlXsrZZ

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 7, 2026

That's problematic for Pitts because, for the season, Pitts is only playing 39.5% of the time when the team is in 12-personnel. Last year, he played on 88.8% of their snaps in 12-personnel. This year, he's playing on just 55.0% of the snaps in 11-personnel. Last year, his rate was 86.7%. His production isn't the problem; the reason for his lack of production should terrify fantasy managers.

In 2025, Pitts had an 87.5% snap share and an 86.2% route rate. This year, those numbers are 52.8% and 55.0%, respectively. His opportunities have been minimal, and given what he's done with them, there's no reason to expect them to increase.

There are 39 tight ends with at least eight targets, and Pitts is 35th in yards per route run, 36th in target rate, 32nd in target share, 36th in first downs per route run, 37th in fantasy points per route run, and 38th in half-PPR PPG. The number of tight ends I'd start over Pitts is extremely high.

Dalton Kincaid Splits

In Weeks 1 and 2, Kincaid averaged 17.2 half-PPR PPG. Over the past two weeks, his PPG average fell to 2.5. What gives? Fantasy managers shouldn't have expected him to perform as well as he did in the first two weeks, but it's been a sharp and scary decline over the past two weeks.

Unfortunately for fantasy managers, it wasn't just bad luck. That happens sometimes, especially with a small sample size, but we did see a slight decrease in utilization, which is somewhat concerning. While the first two weeks showed his ceiling, the last two weeks suggest he might be a bit more boom-or-bust than we'd like.

In Weeks 1 and 2, Kincaid's route share was 65.7%. That number fell to 56.1% in the last two weeks. This is arguably the biggest red flag. Over the last few years, Kincaid has been one of the most efficient tight ends on a per-route basis, but his route share has hovered around the level it was in the last two weeks.

The main reason Kincaid smashed early wasn't that he was better than last year; he simply got more opportunities and obviously cashed in on them.  His snap share also decreased from 71.9% to 62.4%. Luckily, for fantasy managers, head coach Joe Brady seems to acknowledge the problem.

Joe Brady on quiet day for TE Dalton Kincaid: “I’ve got to be better. There’s no reason Dalton Kincaid should have two targets.”

#Bills

— Jonathan Acosta (@JAcostaTV) October 4, 2026

Kincaid ran 46 routes in Weeks 1 and 2 compared to 37 in the last two weeks. There's a slight decrease there, but it's not substantial. The biggest difference comes from Kincaid's target rate, which dropped from 30% to 14%. Some of that could be attributed to the game plan and a concerted effort to get him the ball, but Kincaid still has to own some of it.

Kincaid has simply been less effective the past two weeks. His yards per route run has also dropped from 4.89 to 1.22. Given how efficient Kincaid has been throughout his career, and Brady's comments about needing to get Kincaid the ball more, Week 5 may very well be a "squeaky wheel gets the grease" kind of game.

If anything, his last two weeks might have opened up a small buying window for teams who might be calling those first two weeks fool's gold. If I have Kincaid, I'm holding. If I don't and I need a tight end, I'm seeing if I can acquire him.

Buy Low on Isaiah Likely

Likely scored 23.8 half-PPR points in Week 1. Since then, he's scored just 18.2 points. If the manager who has him is concerned about how well he'll continue to perform after losing Jaxson Dart, I'd make a move to acquire him. Likely has struggled ever since Dart got injured in Week 2. There may be a good buying window, and I'd take advantage if I need a tight end.

Since Week 2, Likely has the 13th-highest route share at 74.1%. That's a strong number and shouldn't have fantasy managers concerned at all. The biggest reason to buy low is his immense target-earning potential. 45 tight ends have at least five targets over the past three weeks. Likely has the third-highest target rate at 33%. His 31.3% target share is the highest.

Over Weeks 2-4, Likely ranks second only to Trey McBride in overall targets. Bowers has 31, and Likely has 26. The volume is there and then some. The production hasn't been there, but it started to turn a corner in Week 4 when he scored 10.1 half-PPR points.

Since Winston took over in Week 2, Likely is averaging 8.67 targets per game, a pace that would get him to 147 targets. Outside of Malik Nabers, the Giants have little target competition, making Likely's weekly volume very safe and secure.

The Jameis Winston-led Giants certainly lower Likely's weekly and overall ceiling, but his insane volume keeps him solidly in the backend TE1 group. I expect Likely to finish somewhere between TE8-TE14. From Weeks 2-4, Likely is the TE28, so this is a buying window. Take advantage. Outside of Bowers and McBride, no other tight ends are earning as much volume as Likely is or has regularly.

Week 5 Rankings

1. Trey McBride vs Detroit Lions
2. Brock Bowers at New England Patriots
3. Sam LaPorta at Arizona Cardinals
4. George Kittle at Seattle Seahawks
5. Tucker Kraft vs Chicago Bears
6. Dalton Kincaid at Los Angeles Rams
7. Tyler Warren at Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Isaiah Likely at Washington Commanders
9. Juwan Johnson vs Minnesota Vikings
10. Mike Gesicki at Miami Dolphins (assuming Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins sit)
11. Colston Loveland at Green Bay Packers
12. Harold Fannin Jr., at New York Jets
13. T.J. Hockenson at New Orleans Saints (assuming Justin Jefferson sits)
14. Kenyon Sadiq vs Cleveland Browns
15. Dallas Goedert at Jacksonville Jaguars (assuming he plays)
16. Mark Andrews at Atlanta Falcons
17. Brenton Strange vs Philadelphia Eagles
18. Michael Mayer at New England Patriots
19. Jake Ferguson vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20. Pat Freiermuth vs Indianapolis Colts
21. Hunter Henry vs Las Vegas Raiders
22. Dalton Schultz at Tennessee Titans
23. Chig Okonowo vs New York Giants
24. Tyler Higbee vs Buffalo Bills
25. Oronde Gadsden II vs Denver Broncos
26. Cade Otton at Dallas Cowboys
27. A.J. Barner vs San Francisco 49ers
28. Kyle Pitts vs Baltimore Ravens
29. Evan Engram vs Los Angeles Chargers
30. Gunnar Helm vs Houston Texans

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