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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 5 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Can you believe that we're already a quarter way through the season? It's time to keep it rolling for Week 5.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 9:30 AM ET Game
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Jets WRs
Corey Davis had a bounce-back game against his former team, catching 4-of-7 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. He leads the team with a 31.88% air yard share and 23.2% target share. This is the clear-cut top option in this passing game. Davis goes up against a Falcons defense that just gave up six receptions, 123 yards, and two touchdowns to Terry McLaurin. The Falcons are allowing 41.5 PPR points per game to opposing wideouts, so this is a great spot for Davis. Jamison Crowder retained his high-volume role in his season debut, catching 7-of-9 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. He's an appealing WR3 in full-PPR formats. Elijah Moore missed last week with a concussion, but he's hard to trust as anything more than a volatile WR4/5 in this spot. Moore looks ready to return, making him worth a dart-throw in DFS tournaments, but not much more than that.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Pitts showed some signs of life last week, catching 4-of-9 targets for 50 yards. You have to love the nine targets there. He's now put up a 23.22% air yard share and 16.67% target share this season. His 8.4 average depth of target ranks fourth among tight ends, while his six red-zone targets rank first. It's only a matter of time before this rookie stud has a breakout game. Pitts looks like one of the best buy-lows in fantasy football. Pitts goes into the love section because he figures to dominate target share with Calvin Ridley out for this game.
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan had his best outing of the season against Washington, completing 25-of-42 passes for 283 yards and four touchdowns. He's now thrown for six touchdowns with no interceptions in his last two games, so perhaps he's finally starting to turn the corner. However, the Jets have been pretty solid against the pass this season, giving up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It's hard to trust Ryan as a streamer in this projected low-scoring game with a 45-point total. Add in the fact that Ridley is out and you have an easy fade.
Olamide Zaccheaus (WR, ATL)
The Jets defense has allowed the third-fewest points per game to opposing wideouts. Most of Ridley's targets will likely be mostly spread between Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson, so it's tough to get too excited about Zaccheaus in this spot. The good news for Zaccheaus is that Russell Gage remains out of the lineup, so there's definitely some opportunity here. I just don't feel comfortable starting him as anything more than a WR4.
Other Matchups:
Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
The rookie is taking over this backfield. Carter has totaled at least 12 opportunities in each of the last three weeks while playing 40+ percent of the snaps during this stretch. He goes up against a Falcons defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. While the production hasn't been there, Carter is the player to roster in this backfield. He's got some FLEX appeal in this spot. I wouldn't consider starting Ty Johnson or Tevin Coleman.
Falcons RBs
Cordarrelle Patterson blew up against Washington, rushing for 34 yards while catching five balls for 82 yards and three touchdowns. The problem is that he played only 30.26% of the snaps, getting only 21.43% of the carries. He's the top option in this backfield, but he's hard to trust him despite his strong play aside from as an upside FLEX play due to the limited volume. He definitely needs more touches and it's possible that he'll get them with Ridley missing this game. Mike Davis continues to be inefficient, rushing for only 3.1 yards per carry. Wayne Gallman also factored into the mix, rushing six times for 29 yards against Washington. This is now a three-man committee facing a Jets defense that allowed only 3.62 yards per carry in the first three weeks until getting gashed by Derrick Henry. I don't anticipate the Falcons having much success on the ground here, but Patterson and Davis could rack up targets.
Additional Notes:
Jets QB Zach Wilson is not fantasy-relevant right now. I'd only consider him as a desperation play in SuperFlex leagues.
Falcons TE Hayden Hurst could see an increased role with Ridley out.
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchups We Love:
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Fournette has taken over this backfield. He's coming off a game where he played 82% of the snaps with 20 rush attempts and five targets. While Giovani Bernard should eat into that target share and he's expected back in the lineup, Fournette still looks like a rock-solid RB2 moving forward. Ronald Jones II only played 16.6% of the snaps last week, so he's now a non-factor. This is a good matchup against the Dolphins, who have been gashed on the ground by Jonathan Taylor, Peyton Barber, Devin Singletary, and Damien Harris this season. This defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing running backs. The Bucs are 10.5-point home favorites, making this a terrific game script. It's wheels up for Fournette.
Matchups We Hate:
Dolphins RBs
Malcolm Brown dominated the usage last week, playing 67.3% of the snaps with 50% of the rush attempts along with one target. This was pretty surprising considering Myles Gaskin out-snapped Brown 55.45% to 27.96% from Weeks 1-3. It's unclear what sparked this shift in usage, but what's clear is that we need to avoid this backfield, especially against a Bucs defense allowing only 2.85 YPC (1st) on the ground.
Other Matchups:
Dolphins WRs
The Dolphins wideouts get a bump with Will Fuller once again sidelined, this time with a broken finger. This is a good matchup against a pass-funnel Bucs defense allowing the most fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing wideouts. DeVante Parker is the best option here because he leads the team in air-yard share (39.32%) while tying for the lead in target share (20%). Jaylen Waddle is also an option, but his low average depth of target (4.6) makes him dependent on volume. Both players have WR3 appeal in a game where the Dolphins will need to air it out to play catch-up.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker has officially been ruled out.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki has really come alive with Jacoby Brissett under center, catching 15-of-18 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. Brissett loves throwing to his tight end - we saw him pepper Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron with targets back with the Colts. The Dolphins will likely have to air it out at a higher rate against this pass-funnel Bucs defense, putting Gesicki firmly as a TE1 this week. The only reason why he's not in the love section is because there's a chance that the Dolphins really struggle to move the ball.
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady is coming off a dud against the Patriots, completing 22-of-43 passes for 269 yards with no touchdowns. He now takes on a Dolphins defense that ranks 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. We could see the Bucs lean on the running game against this run-funnel defense, especially since they project to play with the lead as 10.5-point favorites. This makes Brady a low-end QB1 in this spot.
Bucs WRs
The Bucs wideouts continue to eat into each other's values, making it hard to trust them against a run-funnel Dolphins defense. Chris Godwin (17.51% target share, 9.0 aDOT) is the most reliable option with Mike Evans (30.1% air yard share, 20.9% target share) having the most upside. Both players can be considered on the WR2/3 fringe. Antonio Brown (16.94% target share, 15.5 aDOT) is a boom-or-bust WR3. It's hard to determine which player will go off on a given week, which is why they need to stay in the lukewarm section.
Additional Notes:
It's unlikely that Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski will be able to play this game. If he can't go, Cameron Brate has some streamer appeal.
Dolphins QB Jacoby Brissett is nothing more than a desperation streamer in SuperFlex or tournament punt play in DFS.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry has established himself as the clear-cut overall RB1 in fantasy football this season, averaging an absurd 28.25 rush attempts and 3.75 targets per game. Since their blowout loss against the Cardinals in Week 1, Henry is putting up 32 carries per game. It's clear that the Titans decided that they needed to emphasize Henry with the way that their passing game struggled against the Cardinals and it's working. Henry goes up against a Jaguars defense allowing 3.44 YPC (7th), but matchups don't matter with the Big Dog. The last time these teams met, Henry went off for 215 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown looks ready to return to the lineup just in time for an absolute smash spot against a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in pass DVOA, allowing 10.88 yards per target to wide receivers. Julio Jones hasn't practiced all week and looks like he'll miss this game, which means that we could see massive volume for Brown. I don't expect there to be any workload limitations for Brown here. Wheels up.
UPDATE: Julio Jones is officially out.
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
Robinson is back as an every-week RB2, as the Jaguars made it a point of emphasis to feature him against the Bengals last week. Robinson played 94.64% of the snaps with 18 carries and two targets. While Carlos Hyde was inactive for this game, it's clear that the Jags wanted to run the ball more, as quarterback Trevor Lawrence only attempted 24 passes after averaging 39.3 pass attempts per game from Weeks 1-3. Robinson goes up against a Titans defense that ranks 12th in fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing running backs, but I think we'll see the Jags continue to emphasize the run after it was so effective last week. The balance in offense helped Lawrence as well.
Jaguars WRs
Laviska Shenault Jr. came alive last week, catching 6-of-7 targets for 99 yards while leading the team in air yards (95) and target share (31.82%). It's encouraging to see that Shenault's average depth of target was 13.6 in Week 4, as it was only 4.6 from Weeks 1-3. Now that the team is using him more downfield, especially with D.J. Chark sidelined with injury, Shenault has much more weekly upside. Marvin Jones had a dud week, mostly due to game script (Jags got out to an early lead) but also due to a change in strategy (more balance on offense) that led to a decrease in passing volume. However, Jones was consistent in the three weeks prior to this game, so we can still fire him up as a WR3. The Titans are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing wideouts this season, so this is a great spot for both players.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this spot because these are two suspect defenses.
Other Matchups:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence is coming off his best game of the season, completing 17-of-24 passes for 204 yards (8.5 yards per attempt) while adding 36 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The rushing output is huge as it will help him reach his floor in games where he struggles through the air. It's clear that the increase in rushing volume for the Jags offense helped with Lawrence's efficiency, so it seems unlikely that we'll see the pass-heavy approach we saw from Weeks 1-3. Having said that, this is a good matchup against a Titans defense that just gave up a career game to struggling rookie Zach Wilson and is allowing 8.38 yards per attempt (26th).
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill has a great matchup on paper, as the Jaguars defense are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but it's really tough to trust him if Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are forced to miss another game. If Tannehill is without his two wideouts again, we can expect the Titans to go super run-heavy and feed Henry in this spot, making Tannehill a mid-tier QB2. Let's hope at least Julio plays because this game has sneaky shootout potential.
Additional Notes:
Monitor Titans WR Julio Jones and A.J. Brown because this is a great spot here.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
Matchups We Love:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
What else can you say about Moore, the guy has evolved into a bonafide number-one wide receiver, leading the Panthers with an absurd 30.7% target share. Moore has posted double-digit targets in three consecutive games, including two 100+ yard games during that stretch. We need to consider him a Top-10 wideout on a weekly basis. The Eagles are allowing 9.44 yards per target to opposing wideouts (26th). Fire up Moore with confidence.
Panthers RBs
Chuba Hubbard made his first career start in Christian McCaffrey's absence last week, playing 47.14% of the snaps and getting 54.17% of the rush attempts with two targets. He's clearly going to act as the 1A going forward, as he out-touched Royce Freeman 15-to-3 last week. Hubbard has a great matchup against an Eagles defense that has given up a combined 52 carries for 299 yards (5.75 YPC) to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard in the last two weeks. Hubbard looks like an upside RB2 in this spot. There's also a chance that McCaffrey returns for this game, as he's been able to practice this week. Obviously, he's an elite RB1 if he's able to play. I wouldn't worry about the Panthers potentially scaling back his workload if he returns because they didn't do that last year.
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey is officially out.
Matchups We Hate:
Eagles RBs
Miles Sanders has combined for only 16 touches in his last two games, while rookie Kenneth Gainwell put up a big game against the Chiefs, catching 6-of-8 targets for 58 yards and rushing for a touchdown. Gainwell is a great receiver out of the backfield and should maintain a prominent role going forward. It's tough to rely on either of these backs against this Panthers run defense, which had been dominant prior to the Cowboys game (2.19 YPC allowed from Weeks 1-3). I'd avoid this backfield in this spot.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert caught all five of his targets for 56 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs, but the problem is that he continues to share the workload with Zach Ertz. The good news is that the Eagles run a lot of two-tight end sets and Goedert out-snapped Ertz 74-to-50 percent last week. The bad news is that Ertz had eight targets while Goedert had five. Goedert has the higher upside of this duo, but Ertz will be a contributor all season, preventing Goedert from reaching his ceiling. They have a tough matchup against a Panthers defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game (PPR) to tight ends.
Other Matchups:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts continues to provide fantastic fantasy production, coming off a great game against the Chiefs where he completed 32-of-48 passes for 387 yards and two touchdowns, adding 47 yards on the ground. The Panthers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but Hurts has earned the right to be considered an every-week QB1. This game only has a 45-point total, so it's not a projected shootout, making it tough to see Hurts hitting his ceiling in this spot, which is why he's in the lukewarm section.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
Smith looked great against the Chiefs, catching 7-of-10 targets for 122 yards. He currently leads the Eagles with a 43.89% air yard share, 22.63% target share, and 14.4 average depth of target. This is fantastic usage for the rookie wideout. The Panthers just allowed a 35-yard touchdown to Amari Cooper in their first game without cornerback Jaycee Horn, so perhaps this pass defense is a bit more vulnerable going forward. Having said that, they're still only giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game (PPR) to wideouts, so Smith is in the lukewarm section.
Sam Darnold (QB, CAR)
Darnold needs to be taken seriously as a weekly Top-15 quarterback going forward. His sneaky rushing ability has been huge this season, as he's already rushed for five touchdowns. He's also made strides as a passer, completing 67.8% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. Darnold is surrounded by playmakers in this offense, so there's no reason to believe that he'll slow down as a passer. It's clear that he has the green light to run around the red zone, so we could see more rushing touchdowns. Darnold has a tough matchup against an Eagles defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Anderson finally showed some signs of life last week, catching 5-of-11 targets for 46 yards. While the efficiency wasn't there, it was encouraging to see such a significant uptick in volume after he had only been targeted 11 times in the previous three games. Anderson is too good of a wideout to continue performing so poorly, so it's only a matter of time for the breakout game. Rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. is not getting enough targets to warrant consideration at this time. Consider Anderson a boom-or-bust WR4 in this spot, but keep an eye on his usage because he could be a good buy-low.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchups We Love:
There aren't any matchups to love in this game because of the 40.5-point total.
Matchups We Hate:
Broncos RBs
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams continue to eat into each other's value, as it's been an even timeshare between the rookie and the veteran. Gordon rushed nine times for 56 yards with two receptions for 11 yards against the Ravens, while Williams carried seven times for 48 yards with three receptions for 11 yards. It's hard to trust either of these players as anything more than middling FLEX options right now, especially against a Steelers defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (PPR) to running backs.
Steelers WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster had a slow week against the Packers, catching only 2-of-8 targets for 11 yards. He's a low upside WR3/4 with how poorly Ben Roethlisberger is playing right now. The good news is that he put up eight targets, but it looks like Chase Claypool will be back in the lineup for this game. It's hard to trust JuJu or Claypool with the way Ben is playing right now, especially in a tough matchup.
Other Matchups:
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Sutton has had a couple of slow weeks, but he's still putting up encouraging volume for the Broncos. Sutton leads the team with a 39.63% air yard share and a 21.54% target share. He's also putting up a 17.6 average depth of target, demonstrating some tantalizing upside if Drew Lock can find him downfield. The Steelers have actually been vulnerable against wideouts, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game (PPR) this season. Consider Sutton a boom-or-bust WR3 in this spot. Tim Patrick has played well, scoring a touchdown in two games while posting 98 yards in the other. He's more of a volatile WR4 in this tough matchup.
UPDATE: Courtland Sutton was a late addition to the injury report and is questionable.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Fant continues to put up solid production, coming off a game against the Ravens where he caught 6-of-10 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. He now ranks fifth among tight ends with a 20.77% target share. Fant needs to be considered a weekly mid-tier TE1 going forward, but this is a tough spot in a game that projects to be low-scoring. The Steelers rank 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Johnson returned to the lineup to slide right back into his high volume role, catching 9-of-13 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. Johnson has put up a hefty 31.53% target share, continuing to demonstrate that he's the top target in this offense. While the Broncos are giving up the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing wideouts, Johnson has such high volume that makes him a good option on a weekly basis. We can expect Ben Roethlisberger to be forced to get rid of it quickly to his safety outlet in Johnson. Consider him a solid WR2.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris is another Steeler with a huge role, as the rookie is averaging 13.75 carries and 8.5 targets per game. Those targets are Christian McCaffrey-like. While the Broncos' run defense is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, Harris' target share will help him overcome this tough matchup. This game projects to be low-scoring with a 40.5-point total, which is the only reason why Harris is in the lukewarm section.
Additional Notes:
QB Ben Roethlisberger and QB Teddy Bridgewater aren't fantasy relevant in this projected low-scoring game.
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams had a slow game against the Steelers, but he's still second in the NFL with a 36% target share. If the Bengals are able to keep pace with this high-octane Packers offense, we could see a spike week from Adams as the two teams go shot for shot. I could definitely see this happening, especially if Joe Mixon is forced to miss this game and the Bengals go pass-heavy. The Bengals rank 24th in fantasy points per game (PPR) allowed to wideouts.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this sneaky shootout with a 49.5-point total.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers has been limited by the Packers' slow pace of play this season, as he's only averaging 31 pass attempts per game. He'll need the Bengals to keep this one competitive if he's going to have a spike week, which is absolutely in the realm of possibility in this spot. Having said that, the low volume keeps Rodgers in the lukewarm section. The Bengals have also been stout against the pass, allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones ceded more touches to A.J. Dillon last week, as the second-year back rushed 15 times for 81 yards while catching his one target for 16 yards. If this continues, it would really cap Jones' weekly ceiling. The good news is that Jones continues to be used in the passing game, averaging 3.25 targets per game, which can help mitigate the risk of more usage for Dillon. The Bengals just allowed James Robinson to go off for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries, so perhaps Jones gets back on track in this spot.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow found his groove against the Jaguars last week, completing 25-of-32 passes for 348 yards (10.9 YPA) with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Perhaps the Bengals will start to take off the training wheels and allow Burrow to air it out with Joe Mixon expected to miss this week's game. The Bengals will likely have to do this to some extent in order to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and company. The Packers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so Burrow is an appealing streamer in this spot. The only reason why he's not in the "Love" section is that it's still unclear if he'll get enough volume.
Bengals RBs
Joe Mixon is looking in doubt for this game, so Samaje Perine will likely carry the load while rookie Chris Evans will factor in on passing downs. The Packers are allowing 3.93 yards per carry (13th) this season, so this isn't necessarily a cupcake matchup. It's hard to trust Perine as anything more than a desperation FLEX because his usage is still unclear. Evans is only worth monitoring on your waiver wire.
UPDATE: Joe Mixon's status will officially be determined on Saturday.
Bengals WRs
Rookie Ja'Marr Chase continues to impress, as he's now put up 60+ yards and/or a touchdown in each of his four games. He leads the team with a 43.73% air-yard share while still maintaining a 20+ percent target share, giving him the most upside in this offense. Tee Higgins is expected to return for this game, which could impact Chase's volume. We've also seen Tyler Boyd come alive, coming off a game where he totaled 118 yards on nine receptions. Chase a WR2/3 with upside while Boyd and Higgins look like WR3s in this spot. Having to play the Packers without Jaire Alexander is great news for these wideouts.
Additional Notes:
Make sure to monitor Joe Mixon's injury status.
C.J. Uzomah is coming off a big game, but we need to see more.
Robert Tonyan has combined for only 14 yards in his last two games. Yuck.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Matchups We Love:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
The Patriots are 9-point road favorites in a projected low-scoring game with a 40-point total. This game sets up perfectly for Harris to provide strong RB2 production as the only appealing option in this spot. The Patriots likely won't have to pass much in this spot, as their defense should have no problem taking care of this disastrous Texans offense under rookie Davis Mills, who is coming off a game where he threw four picks and averaged 4.1 yards per attempt against the Bills. The Texans are giving up 5.0 YPC (29th), so fire up Harris.
Matchups We Hate:
Patriots TEs
Both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith were able to find the endzone last week, but they only combined for only seven receptions for 46 yards, demonstrating their touchdown dependency. In a game where the Patriots should be able to grind out and control the clock with the running game, it's hard to trust either of these tight ends. I'd look elsewhere if you were hurting at the position.
Texans RBs
There's really no reason to even consider starting Mark Ingram III, David Johnson, or Phillip Lindsay. The Texans have devolved into the worst offense in the NFL with Mills at the helm. While the Patriots just got gashed by Leonard Fournette for 91 yards on 20 carries, it's tough to envision a scenario where the Texans are successful in moving the ball against this tough defense that just held Tom Brady in check. Don't even consider this group.
Other Matchups:
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers is coming off another high-volume performance against the Bucs where he caught 8-of-12 targets for 70 yards. The problem here is that the Patriots should be able to control this game and won't have to air it out against the Texans. Meyers depends on volume for fantasy production because he racks up underneath targets. This keeps him in the lukewarm section as a low upside WR4 in this spot.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks was still able to catch 5-of-7 targets for 47 yards despite the fact that Mills only threw for 87 yards. Cooks leads the league with a 37.14% target share, but he'll obviously need Mills to perform better if he's going to provide WR3 production. This keeps Cooks in the lukewarm section in a matchup against a Patriots defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing wideouts. Tyrod Taylor can't get back soon enough.
Additional Notes:
Patriots QB Mac Jones isn't fantasy relevant in this projected run-heavy game script.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift is coming off a dud game against the Bears where he was limited to only 16 yards on eight carries while catching 4-of-6 targets for 33 yards, but the usage was promising. Swift out-snapped Jamaal Williams 73.24% to 29.58%, demonstrating that the dynamic second-year back has a growing role in this offense. Williams will continue to eat into the usage a bit, but this is Swift's backfield. This is a great spot in a projected shootout against a Vikings defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing running backs. Consider Swift an RB1 while Williams has some FLEX appeal.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson has had a pair of duds in his last two games, combining for only six catches for 52 yards, but he should get back on track in this projected high-scoring affair. The Vikings are giving up 10.09 yards per attempt, so the Lions passing game should be able to get back on track in this spot. Minnesota ranks 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, so we can consider Hockenson a Top-5 option in this spot.
UPDATE: T.J. Hockenson is officially listed as questionable for this game.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins laid an egg against the Browns, limited to a 52.6% completion rate and 5.3 yards per attempt. He has a great chance to bounce back against a Lions defense allowing 10.25 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. This is a smash spot for Cousins, especially if Cook is limited again and the Vikings are forced to air it out. I expect the Lions to be able to keep this game competitive, which should allow Cousins to keep airing it out. He's a Top-12 option in this spot.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson continues to produce, coming off a game where he caught 6-of-7 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. The second-year wideout has now scored a touchdown in three consecutive games. He's in a smash spot against a Lions defense allowing 10.55 yards per target (29th) to opposing wideouts. We could see Jefferson hit his ceiling in this projected shootout. Fire him up as an elite WR1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff had a decent fantasy day against the Bears despite the fact that the Lions only scored 14 points, completing 24-of-38 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns. He's averaging 40.25 pass attempts per game, so the high volume keeps him firmly on the streaming radar. This is a good spot against a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Goff can hit his ceiling in this spot.
Vikings RBs
Dalvin Cook was clearly limited by his ankle injury last week, carrying only nine times for 34 yards while catching 2-of-6 targets for only 10 yards. Alexander Mattison played a larger role than usual, putting up 10 carries for 20 yards. This is a fantastic matchup against a Lions defense that is tied for 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs, but we need to leave these two in the lukewarm section until we get more clarity on Cook's health. We just don't know if Cook will have a full workload in this spot.
UPDATE: Dalvin Cook is officially ruled out.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Thielen has been limited to 50 yards or less in three consecutive games, but he's scored two touchdowns during that stretch, which has kept his fantasy value afloat. Jefferson is clearly the alpha in this offense, but we all know how Cousins likes to pepper Thielen with targets in the red zone. We can consider Thielen a mid-tier WR2 for his touchdown equity in this projected shootout, but he stays in the lukewarm section due to his low yardage output.
Additional Notes:
Vikings TE Tyler Conklin and WR K.J. Osborn are better suited for contrarian plays in DFS tournaments.
Keep an eye on Lions rookie WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had a season-high eight targets last week.
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara continues to see limited usage in the passing game, coming off a game where he did not even receive a target against the Giants. This is the perfect opportunity for Sean Payton to get Kamara going in the passing game, as Washington's strength is in run defense (11th in rush DVOA). Perhaps the Saints can try to neutralize Chase Young and company with some screen passes and dump-offs to Kamara. I'd bet that he finally racks up receptions in this spot.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin continues to see terrific usage, putting up a 31.4% target share (7th) and 46.1% air yard share (5th), establishing himself as an alpha in this offense. Washington's defense has been a massive disappointment, putting the team in pass-heavy game scripts which obviously favors McLaurin. He goes up against a Saints defense that ranks 25th in fantasy points per game (PPR) allowed to opposing wideouts. While the Saints have a good pass defense (6th in pass DVOA), McLaurin's high volume keeps him as a WR1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Heinicke has been fantastic as a fantasy quarterback so far, finishing as QB12, QB10, and QB5 in his three starts. The problem here is that he's taking on a Saints defense that ranks 6th in pass DVOA. However, they just allowed Daniel Jones to complete 28-of-40 passes for 402 yards (10.1 Y/A) with two touchdowns and one interception. Perhaps the Saints defense is starting to show some cracks in their armor. It's tough to start Heinicke in this spot, but he could be a solid play in DFS tournaments with the way he's airing it out right now. I'd just recommend leaving him on the bench unless you're in a SuperFlex league.
Other Matchups:
Jameis Winston (QB, NO)
Winston continues to be an underwhelming fantasy quarterback, averaging only 21.5 pass attempts per game this season. However, this is the perfect matchup for head coach Sean Payton to let Winston loose, as Washington is giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Saints would be wise to attack this defense through the air. We could also see Washington force the Saints into a faster pace, as the Football Team is playing at the fastest pace in the NFL in neutral game scripts. Winston remains a desperation FLEX in SuperFlex leagues, but he's an intriguing pick in DFS tournaments. This could be a good game for him.
Saints WRs
The Washington defense has been atrocious this season, ranking 29th in pass DVOA and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to wide receivers. There's a good chance that one of these wideouts has a good game in this spot, but it's tough to figure out which one. Deonte Harris leads the team in target share (17.65%) and air yards (201), while Marquez Callaway came into the season as the projected top wideout with Michael Thomas sidelined, but the results haven't been there yet. I'd bet on Callaway having his best game of the season in this spot.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson has now reached the endzone in two straight games. He's coming off a solid performance against the Falcons where he rushed 14 times for 63 yards and a touchdown while adding two catches for 12 yards. The issue here is that he's going up against a Saints defense that ranks 3rd in rush DVOA, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game (PPR) to running backs. Gibson only played 55% of the snaps in Week 4, as J.D. McKissic continues to be a thorn in his side. Consider Gibson an upside RB2 in this tough matchup.
UPDATE: Antonio Gibson is dealing with a stress fracture in his leg but is expected to play through it.
Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS)
Samuel returned to action in Week 4, playing 37.31% of the snaps while catching all four of his targets for 19 yards. He had a -1.3 average depth of target, which demonstrates that he'll be acting as the safety valve for Heinicke, soaking up the underneath targets and dump-offs. It's likely that we'll see an increased role for Samuel in his second game back. While it's still too early to trust him as anything more than a low-end WR4, make sure to pick him up if he's available in your league because he can make an impact down the stretch.
Additional Notes:
The Saints TEs are not fantasy-relevant because of this low-volume offense.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 PM ET Games
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchups We Love:
Browns RBs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are in a great spot against a Chargers defense allowing 5.02 yards per carry (31st) while ranking 25th in rush DVOA. Chubb's upside is capped because he's only playing 51.25% of the snaps with 49.64% of the rush attempts. Hunt is also out-targeting Chubb 15-to-4. Having said that, Chubb remains as efficient as ever, averaging 5.2 YPC. There's a chance that we see one of his massive rushing outputs in this spot. We can consider Chubb as an RB1 in this spot with Hunt coming in as an RB2. Both backs can approach their ceilings if this game turns into a shootout.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler has established himself as an elite fantasy running back, averaging 21.6 fantasy points per game (PPR), ranking as RB3 so far this season. Ekeler ranks 6th among running backs with 20 targets. He's already put up 12 red-zone carries in four games after posting only 17 in 10 games last season. We now have an elite receiving back with goal-line carries, which makes Ekeler a Top-5 RB ROS. The Browns are great against the run (1st in rush DVOA), but Ekeler's receiving ability makes him matchup-proof.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield laid an egg against the Vikings, completing only 45.5% of his passes for 4.7 yards per attempt, demonstrating his low floor if his efficiency isn't there because this is such a run-heavy offense. We could see the Browns go super run-heavy in this spot against a run-funnel Chargers defense. This defense has been very tough on opposing passers, limiting them to only 6.57 yards per attempt (7th). Look elsewhere at quarterback this week.
UPDATE: Baker Mayfield has shoulder labrum tear but is expected to play through it.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE)
Beckham was in a smash spot against the Vikings but ultimately was held back by Mayfield's poor play. Mayfield missed OBJ on a long touchdown, overthrowing the wideout even though he was wide open. He has another tough matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 2nd in fantasy points per game (PPR) allowed to wideouts. It's hard to bank on Beckham as anything more than a volatile WR3 in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert takes on a tough Browns defense, but it's better to attack them through the air, as they rank 1st in rush DVOA but 13th in pass DVOA. The Chargers passing game ranks 11th in DVOA, so we could see them find some success through the air. They'll have to watch out for Myles Garrett, who has been a human wrecking ball this season. I'd consider Herbert as a floor play in this spot, but he's playing too well to bench. The Browns are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Chargers WRs
Keenan Allen continues to function as a target hog, putting up a 27.85% target share, which ranks 12th in the NFL. He takes on a Browns offense that is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game (PPR) to wideouts, but Allen's target share keeps him as a lukewarm play. Mike Williams had his first down week of the season, limited to only one catch for 11 yards. We could see the Chargers make it a point of emphasis to feed Williams after neglecting him last week. He's a high-end WR2 because of his usage: 22.15% target share and 358 air yards.
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
Cook has emerged as a respectable option at tight end, finishing as TE13, TE25, TE27, and TE4 so far this season. He's playing on 59.39% of the snaps with a 14.56% target share. The Browns are tied for 10th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, but Cook stays in the lukewarm section since we can project Herbert to air it out against this pass-funnel defense.
Additional Notes:
Browns TE Austin Hooper currently ranks as TE23 in PPR leagues. It's tough to start him considering this run-heavy offense.
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Damien Williams (RB, CHI)
Williams takes over the Bears' backfield with David Montgomery sidelined, immediately vaulting into RB2 territory. Williams should dominate touches and make an impact in the passing game, potentially putting him as one of the top waiver wire adds of the year. He goes up against a Raiders defense that ranks 26th in fantasy points per game (PPR) allowed to running backs. Williams also gets a boost with Justin Fields starting because the rookie's rushing ability could open up running lanes for Williams.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
There's not much to say about Waller, as he's an every-week Top-2 tight end, no matter the matchup. He's coming off a solid game against the Chargers where he caught 4-of-7 targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. We haven't seen a spike week since Week 1, but there's always the chance that Waller goes off for double-digit receptions and 100+ yards. He takes on a Bears defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but that doesn't concern me given Waller's talent.
Matchups We Hate:
Bears WRs
Darnell Mooney led the way for the Bears last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 125 yards. It appears that Mooney has solid rapport with Fields. Allen Robinson continued to disappoint, putting up only three receptions for 63 yards. It's hard to trust either of these players because this has been a low-volume passing offense under Fields, as the rookie has only attempted 37 passes in his two starts. The Raiders rank 10th in fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so this isn't that easy of a matchup. I'd look elsewhere at wide receiver this week.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Carr had his worst game of the season against the Chargers, averaging only 5.8 yards per attempt. The Chargers pass defense is elite, but it doesn't get much easier against the Bears, who rank 10th in pass DVOA. This game only has a 44.5-point total, so it's hard to like Carr as a streamer in this spot since he's a zero in the running game. I'd look elsewhere if I was desperate at quarterback this week.
Other Matchups:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields has been announced as the starter for the remainder of the season. It's about time. The rookie had a much better game last week, completing 11-of-17 passes for 209 yards (12.3 yards per attempt). We haven't seen his rushing upside yet, but he's fully capable of rushing for 60+ yards in this spot, which really raises his floor. The Raiders rank 16th in pass DVOA, making this an exploitable matchup. Fields is an upside QB2 this week.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs returned to action against the Chargers last week, rushing 13 times for 40 yards while catching each of his five targets for 17 yards. Kenyan Drake only played 35% of the snaps, so this is encouraging usage for Jacobs. You love to see those five targets. If we start seeing Jacobs utilized more in the passing game like that, he can emerge as an upside RB2. The Bears rank 10th in fantasy points per game to running backs, but the Raiders are 5.5-point favorites, so it could be a positive game script for Jacobs, making him a lukewarm option.
Raiders WRs
Henry Ruggs III has quietly put up 60+ yards in three consecutive games, including five catches for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers in Week 2. The Bears are allowing 9.96 yards per target to wideouts this season (30th), so we could see Ruggs get loose downfield in this game. Hunter Renfrow continues to deliver in full-PPR formats, racking up five or more receptions in each of his four games. Bryan Edwards isn't used enough to be considered fantasy-relevant. Ruggs looks like an upside WR3/4 while Renfrow can provide WR3 value in PPR leagues.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Trey Lance (QB, SF)
Lance makes his first career start with Jimmy Garoppolo sidelined with a calf injury. Lance showed off his fantasy upside last week, totaling 20+ fantasy points in only one half of football. You have to love the fact that he rushed seven times for 41 yards in limited playing time. While the Cardinals defense has been great this season (3rd in pass DVOA), Lance's rushing upside makes him an immediate Top-12 option. Add in the high total (50 points) and you have a great spot for the rookie.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Samuel has morphed into an alpha in the early stages of the season, putting up a 32.31% target share, which ranks 5th in the NFL. Samuel ranks 9th in expected fantasy points and 4th in fantasy points above expectation (PFF). This tells us that he's getting a fantastic workload while performing at an elite level. We need to consider him as an every-week high-end WR2 going forward, especially in projected shootouts like this one.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray continued his MVP season against a tough Rams defense last week, completing 75 percent of his passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns while adding 39 yards on the ground. The 49ers rank 18th in pass DVOA, so this is an exploitable matchup for Murray. The overall QB1 needs to be considered as a Top-3 option on a weekly basis. He looks like the best option at quarterback this week.
Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
Edmonds is quietly having a breakout season, ranking 3rd in target share (17.05%) and 15th in snap share (63.64%). While James Conner is vulturing touchdowns, Edmonds still has seven red-zone carries, which shows that the touchdowns should come soon. You have to love his role, as he ranks 12th in expected fantasy points as the primary pass-catching back in an elite offense. We need to consider him an upside RB2 on a weekly basis.
UPDATE: Chase Edmonds (shoulder) will be a game-time decision.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
49ers RBs
Elijah Mitchell got in a limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Trey Sermon looked good carrying the load against the Seahawks, rushing 19 times for 89 yards, but let's not forget that he was a healthy scratch when Mitchell was healthy. This indicates that head coach Kyle Shanahan trusted Mitchell more, which leads me to believe that he will take on the 1A role if he's able to suit up for this game. The Cardinals are allowing 5.21 YPC this season, which is dead last in the NFL. One of these running backs has a chance to eat in this game, but we're not sure which one. I'd bet on Mitchell, but the uncertainty keeps them in the lukewarm section.
UPDATE: Elijah Mitchell is set to return - he practiced in full on Friday and has been removed from the injury report.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle had another slow week against the Seahawks, posting four receptions for 40 yards. The good news is that he's now totaled 20 targets in his last two games. The spike week is coming soon. The bad news is that he's still banged up with a calf injury, forcing him to miss Wednesday's practice. Hopefully, Kittle is able to suit up for this game, as it's only a matter of time before we see a breakout game.
UPDATE: George Kittle is officially doubtful for Week 5.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
Conner is a touchdown-dependent FLEX, but the Cardinals offense is so good that the veteran running back has been able to provide solid fantasy value. He's combined for four touchdowns in his last two games, despite rushing for only 93 yards on 29 carries during that span. We would need him to fall in the endzone to have a good fantasy day here, but it's entirely possible with this explosive offense. If Edmonds were forced to miss this game, Conner would move into the love section.
Cardinals WRs
DeAndre Hopkins (19.38% target share) simply is not getting enough usage to warrant WR1 consideration. We need to consider him more of a WR2 going forward. Christian Kirk leads the team with 269 air yards, but only with a 27.14% air yard share, as he's dealing with Hopkins and A.J. Green. Rondale Moore is explosive, but he's only playing 37.82% of the snaps, so we can't trust him. Consider Kirk and Green WR3s in this spot, while Moore is on the WR4/5 fringe.
Additional Notes:
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk can't be trusted right now. I liked him as a buy-low coming into last week, but he was only targeted three times. Stash him, but he's getting close to the drop zone.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Matchups We Love:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones is in the midst of a breakout season, currently ranked as QB6. The third-year quarterback is completing 66.7 percent of his passes while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and one interception. He's also added 188 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Jones just shredded the Saints defense for 402 yards. This is a defense that ranks 6th in pass DVOA, so that's pretty impressive. Jones is a borderline QB1 in a projected shootout against a Cowboys defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Barkley has re-emerged as an elite RB1, rewarding fantasy players who weren't scared off by his return from a torn ACL. He's playing on 77% of the snaps with 19 targets and 54.74% of the team rush attempts. Barkley has finished as RB9 and RB2 in the last two weeks. He goes up against a Cowboys defense giving up 4.74 YPC (26th), ranking 19th in rush DVOA. We can fire him up as a Top-5 RB1 in this spot.
Giants WRs
Kenny Golladay had his best game as a Giant last week, catching 6-of-7 targets for 116 yards against a tough Saints defense. He led the team with 96 air yards and a 19.44% target share in that game. You have to love how Golladay is starting to show signs of rapport with Daniel Jones. It looks like Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton will be out for another week, which opens the door for rookie Kadarius Toney to retain his elevated role from last week (6 REC, 78 YDS). I'd consider Golladay an upside WR3 against a Cowboys defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to wideouts.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott isn't getting much volume this season, averaging only 33.25 pass attempts per game, but he's been efficient with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Prescott is completing 75.2% of his passes while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. If the Cowboys are forced into a more pass-heavy game script, Dak could really do some damage. The Giants rank 24th in pass DVOA, so this is a good spot for Dak to hit his ceiling.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke has really come alive over the last three weeks, ranking as RB6 in PPR formats during that span. He's currently averaging 5.3 YPC with four touchdowns, showing an improved burst from what we saw last season. Perhaps the increased role for Tony Pollard is keeping Zeke fresh. This projects as another positive game script, as the Cowboys are 7-point favorites. The Giants rank 26th in rush DVOA.
Cowboys WRs
CeeDee Lamb has been limited to only eight targets, five receptions, and 79 yards in the last two games, including only two catches for 13 yards against the Panthers last week. There's a good chance that the Cowboys will make it a point of emphasis to feature him in this spot against a Giants defense tied for 25th in fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing wideouts. Amari Cooper should also stand to benefit from this projected shootout. He's also seen low volume lately, catching 9-of-12 targets for 119 yards in his last three games. The Giants offense is firing on all cylinders right now, so they could keep this one close, resulting in more passing volume and more upside for these wideouts.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this spot. This is a projected shootout with a 52-point total.
Other Matchups:
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram has put up a 16.16% target share in two games this season, which keeps him on the streaming radar, especially in a projected shootout like this one. The problem is that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett continues to use him in a low upside role with a 3.0 average depth of target. This keeps him in the lukewarm section, but we could see Engram find the endzone in this projected shootout.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Schultz has been phenomenal in the last two weeks, combining for 15 targets, 12 receptions, and 138 yards with three touchdowns. He's established himself as the top tight end in this offense. The Cowboys are running more two-tight end sets with Michael Gallup sidelined, so we don't need to worry about Blake Jarwin too much. Schultz can be considered as a Top-15 option in this spot.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen has found his groove in the last two games, finishing as QB3 and QB6. This was despite the fact that the Bills were in two blowout games. This is a pass-heavy offense that should have some major spike weeks when they play in close games like this one. The Chiefs rank 31st in pass DVOA and this game has a 56.5-point total, so there's a good chance that Allen smashes in this spot.
Bills WRs
Stefon Diggs hasn't had a ceiling game yet, but he's still put up 10+ targets in three of his four games. He had a solid game against the Texans, catching 7-of-10 targets for 114 yards. This game sets up as a smash spot, as it projects to be close, so we'll need to see Allen air it out to Diggs. He's my overall WR1 this week. Emmanuel Sanders has fit in like a glove in Buffalo. He's racked up 168 yards in his last two games. He's also put up 417 air yards, which is tied for 14th in the NFL. Consider Sanders an upside WR3 in this spot. Cole Beasley has had a pair of 13 target games mixed with two duds. This projects as a Beasley week, as the Bills will have to really air it out. Consider Sanders an upside WR3 with Beasley having the edge in full-PPR leagues.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes has a tough matchup against a Bills defense that ranks 1st in pass DVOA. However, Mahomes is playing at an extremely high level, so we have to love him on a weekly basis. The superstar quarterback is averaging 304.5 passing yards per game with an 8.6 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He'll have to air it out all game in this spot, so fire him up as a Top-3 QB1.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce is coming off a down week where he caught 4-of-6 targets for only 23 yards. Prior to that, he had posted 100+ yards in consecutive games. The best tight end in football should be able to bounce back in this spot, as I expect the Bills defense to slow down Hill, which will funnel targets towards Kelce. In Kelce's last two games against the Bills (both in 2020), he combined for 18 catches, 183 yards, and four touchdowns. Expect a big bounce-back here.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this game, as it projects as the highest-scoring game on this slate.
Other Matchups:
Bills RBs
Zack Moss has taken over as the 1A in this backfield, averaging 15.5 opportunities in the last two games, while Singletary has put up 14 during that span. The problem is that this was in two blowout games. In a game that projects to be close against the Chiefs, we could see the Bills return to their extreme pass-heavy ways. I'd consider Moss a touchdown-dependent FLEX with Singletary more of an RB3/RB4.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Knox has found a role in this Bills offense, catching 15-of-20 targets for 144 yards and four touchdowns this season. He's become one of Josh Allen's favorite targets in the red-zone. Knox has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, including two against the Texans last week. He has a chance to find paydirt once again in this projected shootout. Having said that, he stays in the lukewarm section due to his touchdown dependency.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill now has two explosions this season, combining for 22 catches for 383 yards and four touchdowns in those games. In his other two games, he's caught 8-of-11 targets for 70 yards. Hill has a tough matchup against a Bills defense giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts. This makes him more of a lukewarm option in this spot. While he's still an elite WR1, it's harder to see him reaching his ceiling in this game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
CEH has gotten back on track, rushing for 100+ yards in consecutive games, albeit against the Chargers and Eagles, two defenses that struggle to stop the run. He now takes on a Bills defense that ranks 2nd in rush DVOA, allowing only 3.25 YPC. The only reason why he's not in the Hate section is that this game figures to be high-scoring and we could see CEH find the endzone. Consider him a mid-tier RB2 in this tough matchup.
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