October 31, 2017

Midseason value check on preseason sleepers and ADP risers. Addison Hayes checks the value of some RB and WR who were hyped up before 2017 fantasy football drafts.

Now that Week 8 is over, we are now officially halfway through the 2017 season. The actual football season always goes by too quickly, especially after all the time and effort put in to analyze and predict the season over the summer.

I thought it would be fun to revisit some players who received a great deal of offseason hype to see if it was justified or not and use it as a learning exercise for future hype players.

I have compiled a list of four offseason hype players for review, with a healthy mix of both hits and misses. All news snippets courtesy of Rotoworld.

Hype Check - Midseason Busts

1. Isaiah Crowell

I’ll be honest, I was one of the highest people on Crowell all preseason, even after his price jumped into the third round of dynasty startups. I own him about everywhere I could get him and now I am paying for pure hype. All of his hype can be summed up by these two news items: RB14 in 2016 on less than 200 carries, top offensive line, a coach committed to the run. I believed it all, but every Crowell owner overlooked his biggest flaw, he plays for the Cleveland Browns. On any other team, Crowell might be the guy we all believed he could be, but playing for the winless Browns leaves much to be desired. He is currently on pace for 204 carries, but for only 702 yards and two TD. He has yet to hit on many big plays, which really catapulted his stats in 2016, and his YPC has taken a big hit because of it.

There is room for some hope for Crowell owners in the future. He finally gave owners what they have been looking for all year in Week 8, though I doubt many people even started him against the Vikings. He totaled 118 and a score on 15 touches against the Vikings in London. The 19.8-point performance accounts for over 25% of Crowell’s fantasy points in 2017 to date and vaults him inside the top-30 among running backs. Riding the momentum from this game, Crowell could string together a series of games that puts him back into fantasy relevance. I remain adamant that he can sustain fantasy value in Cleveland, which makes him a buy-low as running back depth for a fantasy team. To his credit, Crowell has scored at least eight fantasy points in over half of his games in 2017. Those numbers might sound gross, but he is still offering RB3 production as a spot-start during bye weeks or as a potential flex consideration as a floor-play. As a potential throw-in piece in a trade or even spending a third-round pick to acquire him makes his price worth the production.

2. Jay Ajayi

Keeping it in the realm of underperforming running backs, perhaps the biggest bust of 2017 has been Jay Ajayi. Even though about every Dolphin player was overhyped in the summer, Ajayi seemed to be getting the most. Gase penciled him in for 350 CARRIES and another Fins analyst predicted upwards of 1,900 total yards if Ajayi stayed healthy. He was being put in the elite running back tier with David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott. I did my best to combat his hype, but there have been some truths in his offseason predictions so far.

To date, Ajayi has 138 carries for 465 yards and zero scores, while also adding only 14 receptions for 67 yards through the air. That equals out to 19.71 carries for 66.43 yards per game. At this rate, Ajayi is on pace for 315 carries in 2017, which isn’t far off from a projected 350 by Adam Gase. However, Ajayi’s production has left much to be desired, especially given the volume he is receiving. Consequently, his 2017 per game numbers are very similar to his 2016 stats when you take away his 3-200-yard games. In Ajayi’s nine games started when he didn’t rush for over 200 yards, he averaged 17.44 carries for 63.67 yards and 0.33 TDs. Maybe that is a sign there are some huge games in store for him in the second half of 2017, or this is the real Jay Ajayi.

With all that said, I do believe Ajayi is a buy at his current price. I have seen some ridiculously low trades for him recently—Crowell/Cobb, Moncrief/Kittle/18 2nd, Snead/18 2nd and 4th. Some people might believe those trades are far, but I disagree. Ajayi is still receiving a high volume of touches and has yet to find the endzone in 2017. The latter might sound like a negative, but if he is going to score at all in 2017, it is going to happen in the second half (analysis). I am buying Ajayi is at low-end RB2 or even RB3 prices knowing his production to date is his floor. The Dolphins offense can only get better and that means more production for Jay Ajayi. Think of him as this year’s Todd Gurley and you will be happy to pay minimum prices for a potential top-10 running back.

Trade Alert! Jay Ajayi was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles early Tuesday morning. Rest of season, I believe this is an upgrade to Ajayi's value for fantasy. He may not see the volume he was getting in Miami, but the Eagles offense as a whole is a massive upgrade. The Eagles' schedule is not great for Ajayi to start, as they take on the Broncos this week before their bye week in Week 10. I still hold to Ajayi as a buy in both redraft and dynasty, but I recommend waiting until after the bye week to make a move.

3. Jamison Crowder

Moving on from the running back position (for now), we move to the fantasy goldmine that is the Washington Redskins, or so we thought. After Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson left in free agency, there was a lot of hope for newcomer Terrelle Pryor, as well as incumbent Jamison Crowder. As much hype as he had before the summer, the train really left the station after the above news items broke in June. Though it was expected, the confirmation of Crowder playing in two-receiver sets ignited his hype train over the summer, especially in PPR leagues given his style of play. The 100-catch milestone was even being floated as a possibility for Crowder’s 2017 campaign.

Unfortunately for Crowder owners, he has not lived up to his massive expectations for 2017. Despite Kirk Cousins being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, Crowder (or any Washington receiver) has not performed for fantasy purposes by any means. Last week was the first week we really saw the Crowder we wanted all season, as he went for 123 yards on 9 receptions. However, that performance nearly doubled his yardage output this season and was more receptions in one game than his previous three games combined. On the year, Crowder has accumulated only 28 receptions for 272 yards and zero touchdowns, making him an afterthought in fantasy. He is currently on pace for only 64 receptions for less than 700 yards, which is a far cry from his projected 100-catch breakout season.

However, like Crowell and Ajayi, there is room for hope. He is far and away the Redskins number two receiver, if not number one with how Pryor has performed to date. Through seven games, Crowder has played no less than 70% of the Redskins offensive snaps, including playing 91% of snaps in Week 8, the highest among Skins receivers. Crowder should see a high volume of targets and receptions moving forward in 2017, making him a valuable asset in PPR formats. He still should not be seen as more than a WR3 until he proves Week 8 was not an outlier performance. Regardless, Crowder is a buy-low at the moment as a PPR receiver on a high-volume pass-first offense.

4. Ameer Abdullah

I remember when this news snippet released and everyone went CRAZY, but for the wrong reasons. No one believed Abdullah could see anywhere near 200 carries this season because the Lions simply don’t run the ball. While that is partially true, it appeared nobody looked at what Abdullah did in his rookie season. In 2015, Abdullah totaled 143 carries, but only started in nine games and split time with Joique Bell, who saw 90 carries himself. The reason the Lions do not run the ball is not because they can’t, it is because they have not had a truly capable running back since Reggie Bush. If they focused the majority of their 350-400 rushing attempts a year on one player, of course he would hit 200 easily, and that is where Abdullah comes in.

Moving onto 2017, Abdullah now has 101 carries through seven games and is on pace for 230 carries. He has not had less than double-digit carries in a game and has only two games less than 14 carries to date. Where he has been underperforming, especially for fantasy purposes, has been the receiving game. To date, he has only caught 13 passes on 17 targets. Naturally, Theo Riddick has seen most of the Lions’ receiving volume out of the backfield, but we expected more from Abdullah in this department. He has never been a touchdown scorer, but he is a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield. Despite his fantasy struggles, Abdullah is still a PPR RB3 in fantasy like Isaiah Crowell. While not a complete bust, it doesn't appear he will live up to the preseason hype he was receiving.

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis