Draft Busts and Avoids: 2021 RotoBaller Staff Picks

The 2021 NFL season is almost here and fantasy football drafts are underway. The RotoBaller staff advises which QB, RB, WR, and TE to fade or avoid as potential busts based on ADP.

With fantasy football draft season on the horizon, the RotoBaller NFL staff is ready to share their thoughts on the biggest potential busts and draft landmines for 2021 fantasy football.

Some of our top analysts have summarized their thoughts on the top players to fade in drafts based on inflated ADP, playing time concerns, or other variables.

Here are the top players at each position that we recommend staying away from this draft season.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
• Best ball fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

What top-20 RB are you avoiding in 2021 and why?

Nick Chubb might be the NFL’s best pure runner but with his injury history and heavy workload in recent years the risk offsets the upside. That’s especially true in PPR formats, where his scant use as a pass-catcher caps his opportunities. To justify his hefty draft cost, Chubb will need to reel off the touchdowns once again. Considering his TD rate doubled to an unsustainable level in 2020 and Kareem Hunt will be competing for red-zone touches, that won’t be easy. -Josh Friedman

Miles Sanders. Nothing about Sanders' prospect profile truly impressed me, but given his athleticism, I can understand why many were high on him coming out of college. Well, we now have two years of NFL production proving he's just a guy. Sanders was the RB21 as a rookie and RB18 as a sophomore. He's properly priced and almost certainly won't bust at his ADP, but I see no ceiling with a replacement-level back on what is supposed to be a bad offense with a QB more inclined to take off than check down. -Jason Katz

Miles Sanders. Three of his offensive lineman are coming back from serious injuries and they are starting a mobile quarterback that can steal some of his carries, especially near the goal-line. They keep making additions to the running back room, suggesting they see him as a change-of-pace back with a bit higher workload. He's fine as a player, but there are several options in the third round I would prefer to him being on better offenses or with stronger offensive lines. -Dan Fornek

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going as the RB15 on average, so at least he isn't a first-rounder like last year. But that's still too high considering he finished as RB23 in fantasy points per game his rookie season. On the surface, 1,100 scrimmage yards isn't bad and could be improved upon with more involvement as a receiver, but just how much should we really expect? Kansas City is a pass-first offense, Pat Mahomes is not a checkdown artist, and CEH will never be the first or second option. He'll be an adequate second running back but someone will always take him sooner than I'm willing to. -Pierre Camus

Josh Jacobs accumulated 2,215 rushing yards (79.1 per game) during his first two seasons. But offseason developments have created hurdles that will reduce Jacobs' chances of justifying his current ADP. The Raiders dismantled their offensive line, and will now rely on three new starters. Las Vegas also signed Kenyan Drake to an $11 million contract, which will result in frequent disappointment for managers who select either back. The team failed to aggressively upgrade their vulnerable defense, which also will lead to game scripts that are unfavorable to Jacobs - since Jon Gruden remains steadfast in limiting Jacobs’ involvement as a receiver (2.6 targets per game). -Phil Clark

Detroit Lions' D'Andre Swift, not because I don't believe in his talent, but I don't believe in the Lions. The Lions will more often than not be in a negative game script. This will necessitate Jared Goff throwing the ball. With the acquisition of a better offensive line and slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the opportunity for Swift to make a substantial fantasy impact seem diluted. -Gladys Louise Tyler

Saquon Barkley because of the injury concerns. At his current ADP, I would rather take Jonathan Taylor or a stud WR. -Mike Riggall

What top-25 WR are you fading in 2021 and why?

Adam Thielen's 14 receiving touchdowns last season was an anomaly. In 2019 he had six receiving touchdowns and 2018 although he amassed 1373 receiving yards only had nine touchdowns. It is logical to suspect his touchdowns will regress to the mean, especially with the emergence of Justin Jefferson and if tight end Irv Smith Jr. can get a handle on the game, he will naturally become a red zone threat. (While Smith has seen his targets decrease he has seen both his yards and touchdowns increase 47 targets to 43 and two touchdowns to five). -Gladys Louise Tyler

Adam Thielen. I don't think Thielen can repeat a 14 touchdown performance and that is what paced his fantasy finish last season (WR10). Justin Jefferson will have a bigger role after a monstrous rookie season and Irv Smith Jr. has the ability to convert more plays than Kyle Rudolph did a year ago. This offense still wants to run through Dalvin Cook, which also limits passing upside. I'll take the WR2 on a pass-heavy offense over a 31-year-old WR2 on a run-heavy offense any day of the week. -Dan Fornek

Mike Evans because there are so many stud WRs in Tampa, he will likely be boom-or-bust and I prefer not to deal with that headache. -Mike Riggall

Regression will come hard for Mike Evans after the big man caught a career-high 13 touchdowns last year. From 2019 through 2019, he averaged seven a season, albeit without Tom Brady. Evans faces added competition for targets in the red zone and otherwise. Antonio Brown, in his first full year with the Bucs, will need to get fed and Chris Godwin, perhaps the standout among the team’s stellar receiving trio, should see more opportunities after missing four games last season. Tight end O.J. Howard appears healthy again, and the champs brought in Giovani Bernard as a receiving option out of the backfield. -Josh Friedman

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I lump them together because they typically go within a few picks of each other and I just don't want either one. Godwin and Evans finished as the WR15 and WR16 last year, respectively, and are being drafted at those same prices. Both receivers have missed several games over the past two seasons and neither is a target hog for Tom Brady, who prefers to spread the ball around to whoever happens to be open. But the main reason I'm out on Evans and Godwin is that I'd rather take Antonio Brown 3-4 rounds later. -Jason Katz

Many managers who extracted Odell Beckham Jr. from the waiver wire during his 2014 rookie season captured league championship as the result of exceptional numbers that he stockpiled in 12 matchups (130 targets/10.8 per game), (1,305 yards/108.8 per game), 12 touchdowns). But the per-game averages that he generated from 2014-2016 (10.6 targets/6.7 receptions/96 yards), have declined since 2017 (8.7 targets/5.1 receptions/69.4). Even if Beckham can avoid another protracted injury, and the Browns exceed last year’s 29th ranked pass play percentage (51.6%), there are more trustworthy options at wide receiver. -Phil Clark

What top-10 TE is most likely to bust in 2021 and why?

Mark Andrews but this is a tricky question because it depends on your definition of bust. Andrews is my TE6 and I'm confident he can finish there, which is certainly not a bust. I just have no interest in him because he's going five rounds ahead of guys like Noah Fant, Logan Thomas, and Robert Tonyan, all of whom aren't going to finish that far behind Andrews, if at all. I have no use for a part-time player on a run-heavy offense with the greatest rushing QB of all time quarterbacking an offense that just acquired three new wide receivers, including drafting one in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. -Jason Katz

Logan Thomas had a really good season, but he was competing with Terry McLaurin and two running backs for targets with a bunch of check-down artists at quarterback. Those three are still there, but the team also added Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown to the fold, so his opportunities will be far more limited. Ryan Fitzpatrick is also a gunslinger who isn't afraid to take a deep shot, so I just don't see how Thomas can do what he did last year. -Dan Fornek

Robert Tonyan burst into fantasy relevance in 2020 but the production that turned the waiver wire pickup into a top producer came from unsustainable catch and touchdown rates. Tonyan hauled in 52 passes on only 59 targets, with 11 of those receptions going for TDs. Though the Aaron Rodgers drama in Green Bay has trimmed Tonyan’s draft price, he will still need a surge in volume to make up for his reduced rates and merit the cost. If Rodgers ends up slinging the rock elsewhere, the downside for Tonyan could be huge. -Josh Friedman

There is no denying the physical talent of Kyle Pitts but I have a hard time trusting a 20-year-old rookie tight end as a weekly starter. The fact he's usually taken as a top-five TE is absurd. Matt Ryan hasn't made a tight end fantasy-relevant since Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez last played. It may happen in time but I'll pass on Pitts this year. -Pierre Camus

The obvious answer is rookie Kyle Pitts based on where he's being drafted. -Gladys Louise Tyler

What QB (other than Watson or Rodgers) are you avoiding in 2020?

Justin Herbert’s rookie campaign was impressive but enthusiasm for the dual-threat QB has gotten overdone, at least outside of dynasty formats. New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi figures to lean heavily on the pass, so the volume should again be there, yet the system change and defensive adjustments to a better-known quantity could spur a setback. Herbert’s production already began tailing off late in 2020 as opponents gathered film on the signal-caller, who stepped in during week two. If he does regress as a sophomore, he will join a long line of QBs doing so including Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield. -Josh Friedman

Russell Wilson. It's the same old story every year, as we hope he gets unleashed from the shackles of Pete Carroll's 1970s offense. Every year, Wilson opens the season scorching hot and we think, "It's finally happening!" Every year, Wilson fades down the stretch and is barely a startable option in fantasy. I will still gladly take Russ as my quarterback, but I'm not taking him over Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, or Aaron Rodgers. -Jason Katz

As far as starting quarterbacks go, Russell Wilson isn't enticing enough to spend a top-75 overall pick on. Seattle will get back to running the ball, assuming both Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny can stay healthy. Plus, it's not like they did much to upgrade the shallow receiving corps. In the QB2 range, I'm avoiding Baker Mayfield because I think we've already seen his ceiling in this offense. -Pierre Camus

Carson Wentz is a strong candidate to disappoint anyone who is expecting his career resurrection. But concerns surrounding the former Eagle have been widely discussed. However, relying on Matt Ryan this season could also become a frustrating experience. His streak of 10 consecutive seasons with 4,000+ yards could reach an abrupt conclusion, as Atlanta’s offense transforms under Arthur Smith. The Falcons should also increase last year’s 25th ranked run play percentage (37.9%), and Ryan won’t be accumulating any rushing yardage. His receiving weaponry contains minimal depth, and any extended absence of Calvin Ridley would be devastating. -Phil Clark

Trevor Lawrence. Rookie fever gets us all, and Lawrence is the most talented rookie to come out of the draft since Andrew Luck. Lawrence is aggressive with the football, which could lead to higher turnovers and limit his ceiling. He's also going to have to navigate Urban Meyer in his first year calling plays in the NFL, which could take a feeling-out process. Lawrence has some weapons around him, but the offensive line is just okay and could lead him to make some mistakes and limit his fantasy upside year one. -Dan Fornek

Dak Prescott. At his current ADP, you are expecting Prescott to come out of the gate in 2021 at the same blistering pace he played at in 2020. -Mike Riggall

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