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Mike discusses three pairs of fantasy baseball hitters who have exceeded expectations and decides which could provide the most value for the duration of the 2024 season.
There have been several pleasant surprises across baseball this season. On the pitching side of things, the performance by Ranger Suarez stands out.
On the hitting side of things, there have also been several great stories. Marcell Ozuna has been mashing for the Braves, while William Contreras has emerged as one of the most valuable catchers.
Let’s compare some other pairs of thriving hitters and discuss which one could finish the season as the better value and which one fantasy managers should consider selling high on.
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Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals vs. Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
Garcia played in a career-high 123 games last season, stealing 23 bases along the way. His power numbers were lacking, though, given that he finished with a .086 ISO. He has hit for a bit more power this season, slugging five home runs on his way to a .134 ISO entering play Tuesday. He also continues to showcase his speed, racking up 13 steals over 59 games.
As good as Garcia has been, Profar has really stood out for the Padres. Entering Tuesday, he had a .165 ISO and a .404 wOBA. His strikeout rate is down to 13.9 percent, while his walk rate sits at 13.1 percent. Maybe his most encouraging stat is his 40.2 percent hard-hit rate that is on pace to be the highest mark of his career.
Jurickson Profar continues to do work
— Padres Nation (@NationPadres) May 29, 2024
Given that Profar has never had a wOBA over .341 in a season, he is far outproducing expectations at this point. He also hasn’t hit more than 15 home runs in a season since 2019, so he might not even be able to keep up his current power production. Garcia will be a better option for stolen bases, despite his likely underwhelming power production.
With the expectation that Profar sees his batting average decrease significantly during the second half of the season, Garcia has the potential to finish as the better value. If I’m choosing who to sell high on between these two, Profar is the player I’d be looking to move.
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals vs. Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
The Royals are in the playoff hunt this season and Perez is one of the main reasons for their success. Entering Tuesday, he is batting .315 with a .387 wOBA. Usually one to make quality contact, he has a 14.6 percent barrel rate while posting a 15.9 percent strikeout rate.
Bohm has been a run-producing machine for the Phillies, entering Tuesday with 49 RBI over 60 games. He is batting .298, but his increase in that department has been coupled with a decline in his power production. He hit 20 home runs across 145 games last year, but he has just five of them over 60 games this year.
RBI machine Alec Bohm pic.twitter.com/izdt7YolSa
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) June 1, 2024
One of the biggest outlier stats between these two players is Perez having a .345 BABIP. For his career, he has a .291 BABIP. The plus side with Perez is that he provides consistent power at the catcher position. The downside is that he has appeared in fewer than 130 games in three of the last five full seasons. If he can stay healthy, he will likely be the more valuable option of the two, especially when considering their positions. Neither player is one that I’d be looking to sell high on right now, though.
Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies vs. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
Like most members of the Rockies, Tovar has significant home and road splits. Last season, he produced a .753 OPS at Coors Field, compared to a .634 OPS on the road. He has improved his road OPS to .764 this year, while his home OPS has shot up to .851. It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for him, though, with his strikeout rate sitting at 30.0 percent. Coors Field does inflate BABIP numbers, but even his .403 BABIP this season isn’t sustainable.
After a promising rookie season, Pena took a step backward last year. His wOBA remained mostly the same, but he only hit 10 home runs over 150 games. His power numbers have remained underwhelming this season, given his .112 ISO entering Tuesday. However, he has elevated his batting average to .296 while lowering his strikeout rate to 16.6 percent. He has also been running more, totaling nine stolen bases already.
The main concern with Pena is his quality of contact. He produced a 9.6 percent barrel rate during his excellent rookie campaign. He had a 4.0 percent barrel rate last year and he has a 3.6 percent barrel rate this season. While Tovar won’t be able to maintain his current BABIP, it should remain high with him playing his home games at Coors Field. Between these two players, Tovar is the one with the better outlook for the remainder of the season.
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