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Mike's fantasy baseball buys and sells for MLB players off to hot starts. He looks at potential fantasy baseball frauds for Week 14 of the 2024 season.
Trying to determine what to do about a hitter who is on a hot streak when it comes to fantasy baseball can be tricky. When an established star is dominating at the plate, it’s time to just sit back and enjoy the ride.
However, what about players without such impressive historical statistics? Should fantasy managers add them and try to take advantage of their hot streak, or is it too late to jump on board?
Let’s dive into some potential Fantasy Frauds and discuss if they will be able to continue their current level of success.
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Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles (1B/OF)
Santander has gone on a home run surge. Over his last 29 games entering Monday, he has hit 13 home runs. That bumped his total for the entire season to 20. Not only did he mash a bunch of homers during that span, but he also hit .274 with a .336 OBP.
While Santander has launched at least 28 home runs in both of the last two seasons, he is set up to blow past that mark this year. His .504 slugging percentage is on pace to be the second-highest mark of his career. His strikeout rate sits at just 18.1%, which is impressive for a hitter with his kind of power.
Fact 1: It's June 20th
Fact 2: Anthony Santander just hit his 10th homer of June pic.twitter.com/SF6IaDoG6k— Orioles on MASN (@masnOrioles) June 20, 2024
Santander isn’t going to continue to hit for a high average like he has over his last 29 games. However, his power numbers are legit. Still, with the heater that he’s on right now, it might not be a bad idea to shop him and see if another fantasy manager who is in need of power might overpay for his services. Outside of home runs, his career .247 batting average and .328 wOBA aren’t all that appealing.
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (SS/OF)
Rafaela reached Triple-A in 2023, posting a .307 ISO and a .419 wOBA over 48 games at the level. Not only did he hit for power in the minors, but he also stole plenty of bases. In 2022, he stole 28 bases across 116 games in the minors. Last year, he had 36 total stolen bases across Double-A and Triple-A.
After getting off to a slow start with the Red Sox this season, Rafaela has responded by hitting 32-for-95 (.337) with three home runs and four stolen bases over his last 26 games entering Monday. If there was something to be concerned about, it’s that he only had a 4.0% walk rate to go along with a 31.3% strikeout rate during that span.
Even with his current hot streak, Rafaela only has a .150 ISO and a .288 wOBA for the season. His strikeout rate sits at 27.3%, while his walk rate is just 3.5%. He does have 10 stolen bases, so it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to finish the season with around 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. However, don’t expect him to continue to bat over .330 for much longer.
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks (OF)
McCarthy has a lot of speed. He stole 23 bases over 99 games in 2022, then followed that up with 26 stolen bases over 99 games last year. However, he hit just .243 with a .289 wOBA. Combine that with him having very little power and it became difficult for the Diamondbacks to keep him in their lineup.
McCarthy has been more productive at the plate this year, especially of late. Over his last 23 games entering Monday, he is 20-for-65 (.308) with a .395 OBP and eight stolen bases. It has been a bounce-back campaign for him, in general, with his .288 batting average and .344 wOBA for the season.
Jake McCarthy - Arizona Diamondbacks (3)
pic.twitter.com/Dx6Mu27U1w— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 9, 2024
Speed is always going to be a big plus for McCarthy. However, his 2.9% barrel rate and 20.9% hard-hit rate this year are concerning. He will likely provide very little power, and if his .346 BABIP starts to decline, he might not be able to get on base enough to rack up steals. While he can have value in 15-team or deeper leagues, he’s too risky in shallower formats.
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